A Perfect Sports Day

You couldn't possibly script this situation better for me. My absolute favorite artist, Bruce Springsteen, performs at halftime of my favorite professional sports team's chance to win a record sixth Super Bowl, eclipsing the total of any other franchise. I'll be positively giddy for 4 hours (as long as the Steelers win, of course).

For those who have yet to see The Boss perform live, buckle up. His legendary live performances finally get the grand stage they deserve - the Super Bowl, the grandest stage of all. I might be looking forward to halftime more than the actual game. Which if you know me, you know how crazy that must sound. 

Yes, I'm moving from my traditional wheelhouse of college football this week, but the potential of a perfect sports day is worth the diversion. The only thing that would be better is if this were Penn State in the BCS Championship game, with Bruce and the E Streeters still prominently involved (along with an old style fountain Coke in my hand and a Reese's Big Cup per quarter). In order to keep the college football flavor, I'll fastidiously list the alma mater of every player or coach mentioned in my game preview. We'll see what school ends up with the most props, a prize sought after nearly as much as Heismans and Academic All-Americans.

I'll spare you the suspense of delaying the inevitable homer pick of a Pittsburgh win, but my reasons for picking the Steelers aren't just because I have a Steel Curtain signed Steelers helmet displayed in my office. This game was decided 5 minutes after the end of the NFC Championship game. The Arizona Cardinals celebrated like madmen upon defeating the Eagles, clearly happy to just be in the Super Bowl. Their celebration, and in particular the abandonment of joy displayed by Larry Fitzgerald (alma mater: Pittsburgh) tells me one thing: they've already reached their goal. They didn't expect to be in the Super Bowl, and in the back of their minds they've got nothing left to prove or achieve. They won't state it, but it's true. Throughout the playoffs they played the no respect card, and now that they're in the Super Bowl they've gotten that respect. Even to the point of a surprising number of people predicting a Cardinal victory. Not me, I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid. The Cardinals are done.

Contrast that with Pittsburgh's celebration - joyous, yes, but much more subdued and reserved. The Super Bowl has been in their sights all season and their journey hasn't yet reached it's conclusion. Mike Tomlin's (alma mater: William & Mary) comments after the game oozed quiet confidence and an air of unfinished business. The Steelers will be the more focused team on Sunday.

So what will happen once the game kicks off? I think Arizona will actually grab an early lead behind a good opening game plan by Ken Whisenhunt (alma mater: Georgia Tech) and Russ Grimm (alma mater: Pittsburgh - that's 2 for the Panthers!), who have sufficient Steelers experience to put together an opening series or two that will catch the Black and Gold off-guard. My hunch is that it won't be through the running game - they've played the "we're a passing team, so you won't expect a healthy dose of Edgerrin James (alma mater: Miami (FL)) and Tim Hightower (alma mater: Richmond)" card 3 times these playoff already. They'll cross the Steelers up with Kurt Warner's (alma mater: Northern Iowa) arm, possibly with lots of play action. If the Steelers are prepared for the run early in the game, play action passing could work, particularly in freeing Fitzgerald deep and Anquan Boldin (alma mater: Florida State) in the flat and over the middle. But after a series or two, the Steelers will sort things out and put the clamps on the suddenly one-dimensional Cardinals offense.

Pittsburgh isn't the quickest starting team out there, so expect about a quarter to go by before Ben Roethlisberger (alma mater: Miami (OH)) starts working his scrambling, 3rd down magic. Big Ben will be sacked a few times but he'll also make some huge plays by staying alive 3 or 4 seconds longer than any other QB would, as is his M.O. The Arizona defense has been strong in the postseason, mostly because of their ability to create turnovers, but the Steelers have protected the ball extremely well this postseason (1 turnover total against two fast, opportunistic defenses). Ball control will be the norm for the Steelers. If they establish Willie Parker (alma mater: North Carolina) early and throw lots of short and medium range passes, they'll ring up a huge time of possession advantage. The Cardinals know they won't have success running the ball and will resort to passing in most situations, which will result in lots of incompletions and not a lot of clock movement. Long drives will break the backs of the Cardinals over the course of 4 quarters, and the fresh, ferocious Pittsburgh defense will get plenty of rest. 

The Steelers may not run a ton of blitzes at Kurt Warner, one of the NFL's best against the blitz, but they will just enough and at just the right time to rattle Warner. Even when they don't bring extra pressure, LaMarr Woodley (alma mater: Michigan), Aaron Smith (alma mater: Northern Colorado), and Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison (alma mater: Kent State) will find ways to disrupt the pocket. The Arizona line will key on Harrison, as they should, but Woodley may be more dangerous. He's one of the most underrated defensive players in the league and one of the biggest reasons the Steeler defense is so good.

A couple of other sidenotes and minor predictions: Hines Ward (alma mater: Georgia) will be just fine. If he's not 100%, you won't really even notice. Nate Washington (alma mater: Tiffin), will lead the Steelers in receiving yardage as he'll beat the Arizona secondary for a few deep balls. Arizona will throw a gadget play, a Whisenhunt specialty, at the Steelers, but it won't work. No matter how deep into the bag of tricks Coach Whiz reaches, Pittsburgh will be ready for it. The turnover differential will be +3 or better, in favor of Pittsburgh. Troy Polamalu (alma mater: USC) will intercept a pass. Roethlisberger will win the MVP award, but it would be more apt to go to the entire Steeler defense, who will cement its legacy as one of the top 5 defenses, and THE hardest hitting, in the history of football. My goodness, they can hit. It even rubs off on the offense and special teams. You can count on at least 2 unreal hits per game with Pittsburgh. In the AFC Championship, they rang up 3 KO's against Baltimore, one each on offense, defense, and special teams. Even #4 wideout Limas Sweed (alma mater: Texas) got into the act.

In the end, you better hope some good commercials are saved up for the fourth quarter, because the game will be over by then. And my perfect sports day will blend seamlessly into the night, spilling over into the streets of Pittsburgh with raucous celebration.

Pittsburgh 41, Arizona 16

And by the way - Pitt appropriately won the Freshman Fifteen Super Bowl Alma Mater Count with 2 (one being a coach). Penn State still wins the total player count over Pitt 3-2 (yes, a rivalry still burns). But the Michigan Wolverines have the most alums in the game with 7 (boo). Maybe the fact that all their players are in the NFL explains why they're so horrible now.

Next Year's Top 15

This is a pointless column. Just be forewarned. I, an amateur aspiring college football blogger, is trying to tell you who will be on top of the college football world when the 2009 season starts in 221 short days. It's probably the least important thing you'll read all year. But thanks for giving me your time!

It's way too early to tell, but I think next season will in many ways mirror this past one. All the relevant QB's are back, and you'd assume better, and loads of talented skill position players. The one position we'll see lots of new faces in is runningback, due to the influx of early entrants into the draft. But with Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, and Zac Robinson back for a series of Big 12 South gunfights, that division and league will be just as strong and competitive. Florida will again be the SEC favorite, and Alabama will be right there too. USC will reload, and the Big Ten again should come down to Ohio State and Penn State's annual clash. There will be a few non-BCS teams (most notably TCU and Boise State, again) ready to crash the party too. The only major difference ought to be the strength of the ACC, which could be a powerful league next year. Look for a few ACC teams to spend significant time in the top 10 and even get a sniff of the national championship. Lots of youth abounds in that league, and most of its teams improved as this past season wore on. If I had to come up with one trend to emerge in college football over the next 2 or 3 seasons, it would be that the ACC will pass the Big 12 as the second strongest football league in the country. The programs are young and will push each other to the next level.

And now, on to the completely arbitrary yet fun to examine top 15 heading into next season...

1. Florida

The moment Tim Tebow decided to stay is the moment they cemented next year's preseason #1 ranking (barring a disastrous spring injury, of course). Tebow has the chance to become the greatest player in college football history if the Gators win their 3rd national championship during his time there, and he could collect another bronze stiff-arm to adorn his mantle. The Gators also return their whole defense, a unit that was already one of the nations strongest. The only notable loss is Percy Harvin, but lots of speed and talent will be there to take his place. Expect next year's Florida team to be better than the one who won the national championship.

2. Texas

Colt McCoy, king of accuracy, returns for his senior season, and he should be the architect of another potent Longhorn offense. They lose their top 2 receivers in Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby, but a bevy of talent sits in the cupboard. The graduation of Brian Orakpo will slow down their defense a bit, but this is the Big 12 - all you really need is 11 guys who can slow people down and occasionally trip them up. 

3. Virginia Tech

This is the first selection that most will find curious. Virginia Tech will be good, but #3? Don't be surprised. This is a young team that gelled toward the end of the 2008 season and was only one of 5 teams that can boast that they won a BCS bowl. Good momentum to head into next season. They start the season against likely top-10 Alabama, and a hungry, ferocious defense should gobble up an untested new Crimson Tide QB. Look for that to springboard the Hokies into national title contention behind freakish athlete Tyrod Taylor at QB. Their top runningback and top 3 receivers were freshmen, and all now have a valuable year of experience under their belts. Don't sleep on the Hokies.

4. Oklahoma

You might think the Sooners are an obvious choice for #2 with Heisman winner Sam Bradford returning. And why not? They also return the best tight end in the country, their top 2 runningbacks, and lose only one significant receiver. But they will have to replace the left side of one of the best offensive lines in the country - something often overlooked but the anchor of a great offense. And they did lose to Texas last year, so the Longhorns become the prohibitive favorite heading into next year.

5. Ohio State

Once again the Buckeyes will start the season in the top 5. Terrelle Pryor showed in his freshman year that he'll be the best player in college football very soon, and he's the reason they're ranked this high. If Pryor can improve his accuracy and get decent productivity out of some young receivers and backs, the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten. The Buckeyes do lose a lot, but this is a team that restocks with top 10 recruiting classes year in and year out, and any suggestion of a decline in 2009 is misguided.

6. Oklahoma State

The Cowboys emerged as a significant threat to the teams at the top of the Big 12 last year, taking out Missouri and nearly scalping Texas in Austin. Their top skill players return, including arguably the best wideout in the nation in Dez Bryant. Their offense should be balanced and their defense will keep them competitive. Can they break through the Texas-Oklahoma stronghold? They certainly have the talent, and they have the coaching - Mike Gundy is one of the least talked about good coaches out there. Only time will tell whether or not they do it.

7. USC

I debated on just where to put USC. I thought as high as #2 and as low as #10, and this seems to be a pretty good spot. They lose almost everyone on defense and, surprisingly, QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez had the talent to be a Heisman finalist, and his decision to enter the NFL draft seems to be a poor one - another year, especially with the depth and talent at the skill positions the Trojans have, would have cause his draft stock to soar. But, this is USC, and they reload year after year. Once they find a starting QB from their highly rated fleet, their offense ought to produce plenty of fireworks. And even if the defense falls off significantly, they'll still be pretty good.

8. Florida State

Another young ACC team in the top 10. I think Florida State will be next season's Alabama - a traditional power who returns to national prominence. The senior class unceremoniously leaves Tallahassee with the worst stretch of seasons in nearly 20 years, and the youth they leave behind are more than talented enough to restore the glory at Florida State. The Seminoles look like they've found a QB in Christian Ponder, and he's got plenty of people to throw to. Runningback will be a potential question mark, but defense shouldn't be. If they break their longstanding reputation of off-field trouble, the Seminoles could be a surprise contender for the national championship.

9. LSU

LSU's bounce back from an ugly and forgettable 2008 campaign began with their dismantling of a very good Georgia Tech squad in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The defense, expected to be stout all season, finally came together and stopped an offense many teams struggled to stop. If that trend carries over and the Tigers get back to their old defensive ways, it won't matter much that they have a shaky QB. Jarrett Lee will likely be doing a lot of handing the ball off to a stable of talented backs, who will carry the LSU offense. 

10. Alabama

A lot of people will have the Crimson Tide higher than this, but the hole John Parker Wilson leaves behind will be difficult to fill. They open with a tough Virginia Tech defense, and a loss could mean the start of a rocky season. They do have lots of youth and strength on defense, but expect a bit of a step back after overachieving last year.

11. Georgia Tech

Year two of the Paul Johnson era at Georgia Tech ought to produce even greater results than year one. They too are a young ACC team that should continue to improve, especially as they master the triple option. You'd have to think the first year was a learning year and next will be when they perfect it, and give ACC defensive coordinators insomnia.

12. Penn State

Penn State has big holes to fill on the offensive line, in the secondary, and at wide receiver. Two of those areas aren't as big a concern as one might think. The Lions will bring up a slew of tall, fast receivers, most of whom are unknown because they had 3 guys in Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams, and Deon Butler who never left the field for 4 years. But they've got depth and talent for Darryl Clark to throw to. And the secondary was the weakest part of the team last year, so there's not much to step down to. Offensive line, however, could be the part of the team that holds back Penn State from again contending for a national title.

13. Georgia

Losing Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno will separate the Bulldogs from the rank of contender to middle-of-the-road SEC team. Luckily they've got stud Caleb King waiting in Moreno's wings, and all-world wideout A.J. Green waiting to snare passes from whoever ends up throwing them.

14. TCU

The Horned Frogs will ride a pressure defense to the cusp of the BCS as the most likely party crasher. Their highly rated D does lose a lot, but their offense returns the key ingredients and should pick up the slack. Gary Patterson keeps TCU chugging along as the most consistent non-BCS school of the past 10 years.

15. Nebraska

This is just a hunch, but I think Bo Pellini has Nebraska heading in the right direction. They have to replace solid QB Joe Ganz and a lot of offensive skill position talent, but Pellini's a defensive guy and has the Huskers moving back toward the days of the Blackshirts. The Big 12 North is ripe for the picking with Missouri's decline, and I think Nebraska will once again own the division.

Alrighty then, we'll see in about 8 months just how bad those prognostications are!

Next week: a brief hiatus from the world of college football for a Super Bowl analysis and prediction.

A Sentimental Look Back

As we close the book on another rousing college football season, it's time to take a look back. Back to the warm, long days of August, when hope sprung eternal for 120 Division I-A football programs, and hope filled the heart of one budding young prognosticator who sought an impossible dream: picking games at an 80% clip. We've come a long way since those innocent days, and we've been hardened by the harsh realities of overblown expectation (Auburn and Notre Dame), the tragedy of improbable upset (Texas and Penn State), and the cold awakening that you're just not as adept at this as you think you are (me). I crashed to Earth with a final winning percentage of .607, just above the predictors mendoza line and a far cry from the impossible dream of .800.

I did fare a bit better (and a bit worse at the same time) with my 15 fearless forecasts from the preseason. Let's take a trip down memory lane and see just how it went.

1. BCS tables will be turned…

…as a one-loss Ohio State team beats an undefeated SEC team to win the National Championship.  

Well, not so much. The Beanie Wells injury hurt, but they wouldn't have beaten USC anyway, and no one expected Todd Boeckman to flop like he did. I did tab Florida in the title game though!

2. Ohio State-USC and Georgia-Florida will essentially be national semifinal games…

…and the two teams not expected to win them will.  

Again, not quite. In the 20/20 hindsight we have now, Oklahoma-Texas and Florida-Alabama were de facto national semifinals, while Ohio State-USC and Georgia-Florida were big but not cosmic games. And I'll mention again that the loser of said de facto national semifinal advanced to (and lost) the national championship game.

3. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman again…

…with lots of help from Percy Harvin.  

If it weren't for the ballot stuffers in the Great Plains, this would likely have come true. Tebow was left out of the top 3 by nearly all the voters from the land of the Big 12, something not easily chalked up to coincidence. No investigation has been, or likely will be, made, but let it be made clear: Tebow got jobbed by coercive voting.

4. Utah, not BYU, is the real potential BCS party crasher…

…and their Nov. 22 matchup is must-see TV.   

Can I say I told you so? Please, just once? It'll only happen once in a blue moon. I did comment that Utah would lose a game and fall just shy of the BCS lineup, but hey - beggars can't be choosers, right?

5. The Big East will be the most balanced conference in college football…

…if you ignore the fact that Syracuse plays there.  

That honor would go to the wild, wild ACC, where every team save Duke finished at 5-3, 4-4, or 3-5. The Big East wasn't that far off though, with 4 teams within a game of winning the conferences automatic BCS bid. Give that pick a B.

6. Fans at SEC stadiums will get lots of free football…

…as more games will go to overtime than in any other conference.  

I'm not going through and counting overtime games to examine if this was actually correct, but the spirit of the pick was to say "the SEC is loaded with quality teams, coaches, and stadiums, and will provide the most competitive football". The league lacked some of the drama we've become accustomed to, so I'd say this pick fell a bit flat. What conference gets that honor? It's tough to label - certainly not the Big Ten or Big East. The ACC was definitely competitive, but sparse in the way of quality. The Big 12 had quality, but too many exorbitant blowouts. The Pac Ten had some exciting affairs and the teams who lined up in the middle of the pack behind USC played some very exciting and competitive games, and as the bowls showed, had plenty of quality. If only the teams from Washington weren't in the picture...

7. Fans in Michigan will be both enthralled and enraged at their teams…

…sometimes at the same time.  

Wolverine fans were definitely more enraged than enthralled, though they had a bright spot in their improbable comeback win over Wisconsin. Spartan fans had the opposite reaction, as their team became the Big Ten sleeper and avoided their annual meltdown.

8. Years of dominance will end in the Big 12…

…as the North will surpass the South.  

Um, let's do our best to look past this one. In moments of high stupidity, I said that "Oklahoma State will struggle", "Iowa State will improve", "Colorado will surprise a lot of people", "Texas and Texas Tech will fall short of high expectations", and "Oklahoma will run away with the division". Yikes. The actual results? The Big 12 South was arguably the best division in the history of college football. Oklahoma State hung with the big guys for most of the season before folding at the end. Iowa State certainly did not improve, and Colorado's only surprise was that the couldn't fare better in another mediocre year for the Big 12 North. And not only did Oklahoma not run away with the division, Texas and Texas Tech exceeded expectations in forcing a 3-way tie for the division title. Let's just move on.

9. Both Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden will retire at season’s end…

…with Paterno finishing ahead of Bowden in the final total victory count.  

Predicting when Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden will retire is becoming like predicting when Jesus will return: "No one knows the day or the hour...". Every time someone predicts a day or time, it's like that possibility is eliminated altogether. Let's just stop trying to figure it out and just wait and see. JoePa did finish the season ahead of Bowden in the victory tally, so mark that one as correct for me. I'll take it.

10. The seat underneath of Charlie Weis will become a bit warm…

…as Notre Dame will limp to a lower-tier bowl game.  

Yes! My finest hour in preseason predictions! Might I say I nailed it?

11. The Sun Belt Conference will place 2 teams in the postseason…

…because of the sheer number of bowl spots open.  

Yep.

12. Surprises and Disappointments

ACC – Surprise: North Carolina; disappointment: Clemson

Big East – Surprise: Louisville; disappointment: Connecticut

Big Ten – Surprise: Penn State; disappointment: Wisconsin

Big Twelve – Surprise: Colorado; disappointment: Texas A&M

Pac-Ten – Surprise: Washington; disappointment: Arizona State

SEC – Surprise: Mississippi State; disappointment: Tennessee

Non-BCS – Surprise: Utah; disappointment: Tulsa

ACC: Pretty good, especially on Clemson. It's hard to pick a surprise when everyone was basically the same.

Big East: Louisville was a miss; Cincinnati would definitely qualify as the surprise. And South Florida has to be the disappointment.

Big Ten: Yeah, that's about right.

Big 12: We'll go with Oklahoma State as the surprise, and Texas A&M definitely disappointed.

Pac 10: If you count 0-12 as a surprise, then Washington was it. But that's not what I was going for. Oregon State was the surprise there. And Arizona State has to count as one of the most disappointing teams of the year, in any conference.

SEC: Tennessee as a disappointment was a good call (I seemed to do pretty well with the thumbs down crowd), although Auburn would qualify as a greater letdown. Mississippi State was certainly not a surprise sleeper - that would either be Mississippi or Alabama.

Non-BCS: Utah, yes. Tulsa, not quite. You'd have to give greatest disappointment to Florida Atlantic. Despite making a bowl, they went 6-6 in a season where undefeated talk floated around them before the season.

13. Conference Picks

Here are my conference winners (second division winners in parenthesis)

ACC: North Carolina (Clemson)

Big East: West Virginia

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big 12: Missouri (Oklahoma)

Pac 10: USC

SEC: Florida (Auburn)

C-USA: East Carolina (SMU)

MAC: Central Michigan (Miami-Ohio)

Mtn. West: Utah

Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic

WAC: Fresno State

Only a few comments, the results pretty much speak for themselves. Auburn as the SEC West champ was a failure. SMU in the C-USA title game was just as bad. In the end I went 4 of 11 on conference winners. I'll do better next year.

For the last 2 sections (Bowls and Final Standings), I'll just reprint my picks, exposing myself and my errancy for the world to see. It's not a pretty sight.

14. Bowls

BCS Championship: Ohio State over Florida

Fiesta: Missouri over Virginia Tech

Sugar: Georgia over Oklahoma

Orange: West Virginia over North Carolina

Rose: USC over Penn State

Cotton: Texas over LSU

Capital One: Auburn over Wisconsin

Gator: Clemson over Pittsburgh

Outback: Illinois over South Carolina

GMAC: Ball State over SMU

International: Notre Dame over Miami-Ohio

Liberty: East Carolina over New Mexico

Chick-fil-A: Alabama over Florida State

Insight: Michigan over Nebraska

Music City: Mississippi State over Miami (FL)

Sun: South Florida over California

Armed Forces: TCU over Tulsa

Texas: Houston over Iowa State

Holiday: Oregon over Colorado

Humanitarian: Boise State over Buffalo

Alamo: Michigan State over Texas Tech

Papajohns.com: Rutgers over Mississippi

Independence: Kansas over Tennessee

Emerald: Arizona State over Maryland

Champs Sports: Iowa over N.C. State

Meineke Car Care: Wake Forest over Louisville

Motor City: Central Michigan over Purdue

Hawaii: Washington over Fresno State

Poinsettia: BYU over Middle Tennessee

New Orleans: Florida Atlantic over Southern Miss

Las Vegas: Utah over UCLA

St. Petersburg: Central Florida over Cincinnati

Congressional: Connecticut over Navy

New Mexico: Air Force over Hawaii

15. The Final Standings

Note: these are not my preseason rankings, but how I think they'll finish after the season plays out.

1. Ohio State

2. Florida

3. USC

4. Georgia

5. Missouri

6. Auburn

7. Oklahoma

8. Oregon

9. Penn State

10. Texas

11. West Virginia

12. Utah

13. North Carolina

14. Virginia Tech

15. LSU

16. Alabama

17. Illinois

18. Colorado

19. BYU

20. Texas Tech

21. South Florida

22. Clemson

23. Pittsburgh

24. Mississippi State

25. East Carolina

A note: I successfully predicted one bowl matchup right (the Rose), and did get 6 of the 10 BCS teams correct. I'll take that. And 16 of the final top 25, albeit scattered about. The rest, as you might have noted, was not pretty.

The lesson? These preseason predictions are extraordinarily difficult, and it's quite silly (but fun) to even try to predict some of these things. But I'd be willing to put my results on the line against just about anybody. I think I fared pretty well as a whole. Preseason picks are so hit or miss that if you nail one or two you look like a genius. At least until the rest of your results are examined.

Next week: my take on who next year's top 15 are (talk about an impossible and silly endeavor!).