It's way too early to tell, but I think next season will in many ways mirror this past one. All the relevant QB's are back, and you'd assume better, and loads of talented skill position players. The one position we'll see lots of new faces in is runningback, due to the influx of early entrants into the draft. But with Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, and Zac Robinson back for a series of Big 12 South gunfights, that division and league will be just as strong and competitive. Florida will again be the SEC favorite, and Alabama will be right there too. USC will reload, and the Big Ten again should come down to Ohio State and Penn State's annual clash. There will be a few non-BCS teams (most notably TCU and Boise State, again) ready to crash the party too. The only major difference ought to be the strength of the ACC, which could be a powerful league next year. Look for a few ACC teams to spend significant time in the top 10 and even get a sniff of the national championship. Lots of youth abounds in that league, and most of its teams improved as this past season wore on. If I had to come up with one trend to emerge in college football over the next 2 or 3 seasons, it would be that the ACC will pass the Big 12 as the second strongest football league in the country. The programs are young and will push each other to the next level.
And now, on to the completely arbitrary yet fun to examine top 15 heading into next season...
1. Florida
The moment Tim Tebow decided to stay is the moment they cemented next year's preseason #1 ranking (barring a disastrous spring injury, of course). Tebow has the chance to become the greatest player in college football history if the Gators win their 3rd national championship during his time there, and he could collect another bronze stiff-arm to adorn his mantle. The Gators also return their whole defense, a unit that was already one of the nations strongest. The only notable loss is Percy Harvin, but lots of speed and talent will be there to take his place. Expect next year's Florida team to be better than the one who won the national championship.
2. Texas
Colt McCoy, king of accuracy, returns for his senior season, and he should be the architect of another potent Longhorn offense. They lose their top 2 receivers in Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby, but a bevy of talent sits in the cupboard. The graduation of Brian Orakpo will slow down their defense a bit, but this is the Big 12 - all you really need is 11 guys who can slow people down and occasionally trip them up.
3. Virginia Tech
This is the first selection that most will find curious. Virginia Tech will be good, but #3? Don't be surprised. This is a young team that gelled toward the end of the 2008 season and was only one of 5 teams that can boast that they won a BCS bowl. Good momentum to head into next season. They start the season against likely top-10 Alabama, and a hungry, ferocious defense should gobble up an untested new Crimson Tide QB. Look for that to springboard the Hokies into national title contention behind freakish athlete Tyrod Taylor at QB. Their top runningback and top 3 receivers were freshmen, and all now have a valuable year of experience under their belts. Don't sleep on the Hokies.
4. Oklahoma
You might think the Sooners are an obvious choice for #2 with Heisman winner Sam Bradford returning. And why not? They also return the best tight end in the country, their top 2 runningbacks, and lose only one significant receiver. But they will have to replace the left side of one of the best offensive lines in the country - something often overlooked but the anchor of a great offense. And they did lose to Texas last year, so the Longhorns become the prohibitive favorite heading into next year.
5. Ohio State
Once again the Buckeyes will start the season in the top 5. Terrelle Pryor showed in his freshman year that he'll be the best player in college football very soon, and he's the reason they're ranked this high. If Pryor can improve his accuracy and get decent productivity out of some young receivers and backs, the Buckeyes will win the Big Ten. The Buckeyes do lose a lot, but this is a team that restocks with top 10 recruiting classes year in and year out, and any suggestion of a decline in 2009 is misguided.
6. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys emerged as a significant threat to the teams at the top of the Big 12 last year, taking out Missouri and nearly scalping Texas in Austin. Their top skill players return, including arguably the best wideout in the nation in Dez Bryant. Their offense should be balanced and their defense will keep them competitive. Can they break through the Texas-Oklahoma stronghold? They certainly have the talent, and they have the coaching - Mike Gundy is one of the least talked about good coaches out there. Only time will tell whether or not they do it.
7. USC
I debated on just where to put USC. I thought as high as #2 and as low as #10, and this seems to be a pretty good spot. They lose almost everyone on defense and, surprisingly, QB Mark Sanchez. Sanchez had the talent to be a Heisman finalist, and his decision to enter the NFL draft seems to be a poor one - another year, especially with the depth and talent at the skill positions the Trojans have, would have cause his draft stock to soar. But, this is USC, and they reload year after year. Once they find a starting QB from their highly rated fleet, their offense ought to produce plenty of fireworks. And even if the defense falls off significantly, they'll still be pretty good.
8. Florida State
Another young ACC team in the top 10. I think Florida State will be next season's Alabama - a traditional power who returns to national prominence. The senior class unceremoniously leaves Tallahassee with the worst stretch of seasons in nearly 20 years, and the youth they leave behind are more than talented enough to restore the glory at Florida State. The Seminoles look like they've found a QB in Christian Ponder, and he's got plenty of people to throw to. Runningback will be a potential question mark, but defense shouldn't be. If they break their longstanding reputation of off-field trouble, the Seminoles could be a surprise contender for the national championship.
9. LSU
LSU's bounce back from an ugly and forgettable 2008 campaign began with their dismantling of a very good Georgia Tech squad in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The defense, expected to be stout all season, finally came together and stopped an offense many teams struggled to stop. If that trend carries over and the Tigers get back to their old defensive ways, it won't matter much that they have a shaky QB. Jarrett Lee will likely be doing a lot of handing the ball off to a stable of talented backs, who will carry the LSU offense.
10. Alabama
A lot of people will have the Crimson Tide higher than this, but the hole John Parker Wilson leaves behind will be difficult to fill. They open with a tough Virginia Tech defense, and a loss could mean the start of a rocky season. They do have lots of youth and strength on defense, but expect a bit of a step back after overachieving last year.
11. Georgia Tech
Year two of the Paul Johnson era at Georgia Tech ought to produce even greater results than year one. They too are a young ACC team that should continue to improve, especially as they master the triple option. You'd have to think the first year was a learning year and next will be when they perfect it, and give ACC defensive coordinators insomnia.
12. Penn State
Penn State has big holes to fill on the offensive line, in the secondary, and at wide receiver. Two of those areas aren't as big a concern as one might think. The Lions will bring up a slew of tall, fast receivers, most of whom are unknown because they had 3 guys in Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams, and Deon Butler who never left the field for 4 years. But they've got depth and talent for Darryl Clark to throw to. And the secondary was the weakest part of the team last year, so there's not much to step down to. Offensive line, however, could be the part of the team that holds back Penn State from again contending for a national title.
13. Georgia
Losing Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno will separate the Bulldogs from the rank of contender to middle-of-the-road SEC team. Luckily they've got stud Caleb King waiting in Moreno's wings, and all-world wideout A.J. Green waiting to snare passes from whoever ends up throwing them.
14. TCU
The Horned Frogs will ride a pressure defense to the cusp of the BCS as the most likely party crasher. Their highly rated D does lose a lot, but their offense returns the key ingredients and should pick up the slack. Gary Patterson keeps TCU chugging along as the most consistent non-BCS school of the past 10 years.
15. Nebraska
This is just a hunch, but I think Bo Pellini has Nebraska heading in the right direction. They have to replace solid QB Joe Ganz and a lot of offensive skill position talent, but Pellini's a defensive guy and has the Huskers moving back toward the days of the Blackshirts. The Big 12 North is ripe for the picking with Missouri's decline, and I think Nebraska will once again own the division.
Alrighty then, we'll see in about 8 months just how bad those prognostications are!
Next week: a brief hiatus from the world of college football for a Super Bowl analysis and prediction.
No comments:
Post a Comment