For those who have yet to see The Boss perform live, buckle up. His legendary live performances finally get the grand stage they deserve - the Super Bowl, the grandest stage of all. I might be looking forward to halftime more than the actual game. Which if you know me, you know how crazy that must sound.
Yes, I'm moving from my traditional wheelhouse of college football this week, but the potential of a perfect sports day is worth the diversion. The only thing that would be better is if this were Penn State in the BCS Championship game, with Bruce and the E Streeters still prominently involved (along with an old style fountain Coke in my hand and a Reese's Big Cup per quarter). In order to keep the college football flavor, I'll fastidiously list the alma mater of every player or coach mentioned in my game preview. We'll see what school ends up with the most props, a prize sought after nearly as much as Heismans and Academic All-Americans.
I'll spare you the suspense of delaying the inevitable homer pick of a Pittsburgh win, but my reasons for picking the Steelers aren't just because I have a Steel Curtain signed Steelers helmet displayed in my office. This game was decided 5 minutes after the end of the NFC Championship game. The Arizona Cardinals celebrated like madmen upon defeating the Eagles, clearly happy to just be in the Super Bowl. Their celebration, and in particular the abandonment of joy displayed by Larry Fitzgerald (alma mater: Pittsburgh) tells me one thing: they've already reached their goal. They didn't expect to be in the Super Bowl, and in the back of their minds they've got nothing left to prove or achieve. They won't state it, but it's true. Throughout the playoffs they played the no respect card, and now that they're in the Super Bowl they've gotten that respect. Even to the point of a surprising number of people predicting a Cardinal victory. Not me, I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid. The Cardinals are done.
Contrast that with Pittsburgh's celebration - joyous, yes, but much more subdued and reserved. The Super Bowl has been in their sights all season and their journey hasn't yet reached it's conclusion. Mike Tomlin's (alma mater: William & Mary) comments after the game oozed quiet confidence and an air of unfinished business. The Steelers will be the more focused team on Sunday.
So what will happen once the game kicks off? I think Arizona will actually grab an early lead behind a good opening game plan by Ken Whisenhunt (alma mater: Georgia Tech) and Russ Grimm (alma mater: Pittsburgh - that's 2 for the Panthers!), who have sufficient Steelers experience to put together an opening series or two that will catch the Black and Gold off-guard. My hunch is that it won't be through the running game - they've played the "we're a passing team, so you won't expect a healthy dose of Edgerrin James (alma mater: Miami (FL)) and Tim Hightower (alma mater: Richmond)" card 3 times these playoff already. They'll cross the Steelers up with Kurt Warner's (alma mater: Northern Iowa) arm, possibly with lots of play action. If the Steelers are prepared for the run early in the game, play action passing could work, particularly in freeing Fitzgerald deep and Anquan Boldin (alma mater: Florida State) in the flat and over the middle. But after a series or two, the Steelers will sort things out and put the clamps on the suddenly one-dimensional Cardinals offense.
Pittsburgh isn't the quickest starting team out there, so expect about a quarter to go by before Ben Roethlisberger (alma mater: Miami (OH)) starts working his scrambling, 3rd down magic. Big Ben will be sacked a few times but he'll also make some huge plays by staying alive 3 or 4 seconds longer than any other QB would, as is his M.O. The Arizona defense has been strong in the postseason, mostly because of their ability to create turnovers, but the Steelers have protected the ball extremely well this postseason (1 turnover total against two fast, opportunistic defenses). Ball control will be the norm for the Steelers. If they establish Willie Parker (alma mater: North Carolina) early and throw lots of short and medium range passes, they'll ring up a huge time of possession advantage. The Cardinals know they won't have success running the ball and will resort to passing in most situations, which will result in lots of incompletions and not a lot of clock movement. Long drives will break the backs of the Cardinals over the course of 4 quarters, and the fresh, ferocious Pittsburgh defense will get plenty of rest.
The Steelers may not run a ton of blitzes at Kurt Warner, one of the NFL's best against the blitz, but they will just enough and at just the right time to rattle Warner. Even when they don't bring extra pressure, LaMarr Woodley (alma mater: Michigan), Aaron Smith (alma mater: Northern Colorado), and Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison (alma mater: Kent State) will find ways to disrupt the pocket. The Arizona line will key on Harrison, as they should, but Woodley may be more dangerous. He's one of the most underrated defensive players in the league and one of the biggest reasons the Steeler defense is so good.
A couple of other sidenotes and minor predictions: Hines Ward (alma mater: Georgia) will be just fine. If he's not 100%, you won't really even notice. Nate Washington (alma mater: Tiffin), will lead the Steelers in receiving yardage as he'll beat the Arizona secondary for a few deep balls. Arizona will throw a gadget play, a Whisenhunt specialty, at the Steelers, but it won't work. No matter how deep into the bag of tricks Coach Whiz reaches, Pittsburgh will be ready for it. The turnover differential will be +3 or better, in favor of Pittsburgh. Troy Polamalu (alma mater: USC) will intercept a pass. Roethlisberger will win the MVP award, but it would be more apt to go to the entire Steeler defense, who will cement its legacy as one of the top 5 defenses, and THE hardest hitting, in the history of football. My goodness, they can hit. It even rubs off on the offense and special teams. You can count on at least 2 unreal hits per game with Pittsburgh. In the AFC Championship, they rang up 3 KO's against Baltimore, one each on offense, defense, and special teams. Even #4 wideout Limas Sweed (alma mater: Texas) got into the act.
In the end, you better hope some good commercials are saved up for the fourth quarter, because the game will be over by then. And my perfect sports day will blend seamlessly into the night, spilling over into the streets of Pittsburgh with raucous celebration.
Pittsburgh 41, Arizona 16
And by the way - Pitt appropriately won the Freshman Fifteen Super Bowl Alma Mater Count with 2 (one being a coach). Penn State still wins the total player count over Pitt 3-2 (yes, a rivalry still burns). But the Michigan Wolverines have the most alums in the game with 7 (boo). Maybe the fact that all their players are in the NFL explains why they're so horrible now.
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