As we close the book on another rousing college football season, it's time to take a look back. Back to the warm, long days of August, when hope sprung eternal for 120 Division I-A football programs, and hope filled the heart of one budding young prognosticator who sought an impossible dream: picking games at an 80% clip. We've come a long way since those innocent days, and we've been hardened by the harsh realities of overblown expectation (Auburn and Notre Dame), the tragedy of improbable upset (Texas and Penn State), and the cold awakening that you're just not as adept at this as you think you are (me). I crashed to Earth with a final winning percentage of .607, just above the predictors mendoza line and a far cry from the impossible dream of .800.
I did fare a bit better (and a bit worse at the same time) with my 15 fearless forecasts from the preseason. Let's take a trip down memory lane and see just how it went.
1. BCS tables will be turned…
…as a one-loss Ohio State team beats an undefeated SEC team to win the National Championship.
Well, not so much. The Beanie Wells injury hurt, but they wouldn't have beaten USC anyway, and no one expected Todd Boeckman to flop like he did. I did tab Florida in the title game though!
2. Ohio State-USC and Georgia-Florida will essentially be national semifinal games…
…and the two teams not expected to win them will.
Again, not quite. In the 20/20 hindsight we have now, Oklahoma-Texas and Florida-Alabama were de facto national semifinals, while Ohio State-USC and Georgia-Florida were big but not cosmic games. And I'll mention again that the loser of said de facto national semifinal advanced to (and lost) the national championship game.
3. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman again…
…with lots of help from Percy Harvin.
If it weren't for the ballot stuffers in the Great Plains, this would likely have come true. Tebow was left out of the top 3 by nearly all the voters from the land of the Big 12, something not easily chalked up to coincidence. No investigation has been, or likely will be, made, but let it be made clear: Tebow got jobbed by coercive voting.
4. Utah, not BYU, is the real potential BCS party crasher…
…and their Nov. 22 matchup is must-see TV. Can I say I told you so? Please, just once? It'll only happen once in a blue moon. I did comment that Utah would lose a game and fall just shy of the BCS lineup, but hey - beggars can't be choosers, right?
5. The Big East will be the most balanced conference in college football…
…if you ignore the fact that Syracuse plays there.
That honor would go to the wild, wild ACC, where every team save Duke finished at 5-3, 4-4, or 3-5. The Big East wasn't that far off though, with 4 teams within a game of winning the conferences automatic BCS bid. Give that pick a B.
6. Fans at SEC stadiums will get lots of free football…
…as more games will go to overtime than in any other conference.
I'm not going through and counting overtime games to examine if this was actually correct, but the spirit of the pick was to say "the SEC is loaded with quality teams, coaches, and stadiums, and will provide the most competitive football". The league lacked some of the drama we've become accustomed to, so I'd say this pick fell a bit flat. What conference gets that honor? It's tough to label - certainly not the Big Ten or Big East. The ACC was definitely competitive, but sparse in the way of quality. The Big 12 had quality, but too many exorbitant blowouts. The Pac Ten had some exciting affairs and the teams who lined up in the middle of the pack behind USC played some very exciting and competitive games, and as the bowls showed, had plenty of quality. If only the teams from Washington weren't in the picture...
7. Fans in Michigan will be both enthralled and enraged at their teams…
…sometimes at the same time.
Wolverine fans were definitely more enraged than enthralled, though they had a bright spot in their improbable comeback win over Wisconsin. Spartan fans had the opposite reaction, as their team became the Big Ten sleeper and avoided their annual meltdown.
8. Years of dominance will end in the Big 12…
…as the North will surpass the South.
Um, let's do our best to look past this one. In moments of high stupidity, I said that "Oklahoma State will struggle", "Iowa State will improve", "Colorado will surprise a lot of people", "Texas and Texas Tech will fall short of high expectations", and "Oklahoma will run away with the division". Yikes. The actual results? The Big 12 South was arguably the best division in the history of college football. Oklahoma State hung with the big guys for most of the season before folding at the end. Iowa State certainly did not improve, and Colorado's only surprise was that the couldn't fare better in another mediocre year for the Big 12 North. And not only did Oklahoma not run away with the division, Texas and Texas Tech exceeded expectations in forcing a 3-way tie for the division title. Let's just move on.
9. Both Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden will retire at season’s end…
…with Paterno finishing ahead of Bowden in the final total victory count.
Predicting when Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden will retire is becoming like predicting when Jesus will return: "No one knows the day or the hour...". Every time someone predicts a day or time, it's like that possibility is eliminated altogether. Let's just stop trying to figure it out and just wait and see. JoePa did finish the season ahead of Bowden in the victory tally, so mark that one as correct for me. I'll take it.
10. The seat underneath of Charlie Weis will become a bit warm…
…as Notre Dame will limp to a lower-tier bowl game.
Yes! My finest hour in preseason predictions! Might I say I nailed it?
11. The Sun Belt Conference will place 2 teams in the postseason…
…because of the sheer number of bowl spots open.
Yep.
12. Surprises and Disappointments
ACC – Surprise: North Carolina; disappointment: Clemson
Big East – Surprise: Louisville; disappointment: Connecticut
Big Ten – Surprise: Penn State; disappointment: Wisconsin
Big Twelve – Surprise: Colorado; disappointment: Texas A&M
Pac-Ten – Surprise: Washington; disappointment: Arizona State
SEC – Surprise: Mississippi State; disappointment: Tennessee
Non-BCS – Surprise: Utah; disappointment: Tulsa
ACC: Pretty good, especially on Clemson. It's hard to pick a surprise when everyone was basically the same.
Big East: Louisville was a miss; Cincinnati would definitely qualify as the surprise. And South Florida has to be the disappointment.
Big Ten: Yeah, that's about right.
Big 12: We'll go with Oklahoma State as the surprise, and Texas A&M definitely disappointed.
Pac 10: If you count 0-12 as a surprise, then Washington was it. But that's not what I was going for. Oregon State was the surprise there. And Arizona State has to count as one of the most disappointing teams of the year, in any conference.
SEC: Tennessee as a disappointment was a good call (I seemed to do pretty well with the thumbs down crowd), although Auburn would qualify as a greater letdown. Mississippi State was certainly not a surprise sleeper - that would either be Mississippi or Alabama.
Non-BCS: Utah, yes. Tulsa, not quite. You'd have to give greatest disappointment to Florida Atlantic. Despite making a bowl, they went 6-6 in a season where undefeated talk floated around them before the season.
13. Conference Picks
Here are my conference winners (second division winners in parenthesis)
ACC: North Carolina (Clemson)
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Missouri (Oklahoma)
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida (Auburn)
C-USA: East Carolina (SMU)
MAC: Central Michigan (Miami-Ohio)
Mtn. West: Utah
Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic
WAC: Fresno State
Only a few comments, the results pretty much speak for themselves. Auburn as the SEC West champ was a failure. SMU in the C-USA title game was just as bad. In the end I went 4 of 11 on conference winners. I'll do better next year.
For the last 2 sections (Bowls and Final Standings), I'll just reprint my picks, exposing myself and my errancy for the world to see. It's not a pretty sight.
14. Bowls
BCS Championship: Ohio State over Florida
Fiesta: Missouri over Virginia Tech
Sugar: Georgia over Oklahoma
Orange: West Virginia over North Carolina
Rose: USC over Penn State
Cotton: Texas over LSU
Capital One: Auburn over Wisconsin
Gator: Clemson over Pittsburgh
Outback: Illinois over South Carolina
GMAC: Ball State over SMU
International: Notre Dame over Miami-Ohio
Liberty: East Carolina over New Mexico
Chick-fil-A: Alabama over Florida State
Insight: Michigan over Nebraska
Music City: Mississippi State over Miami (FL)
Sun: South Florida over California
Armed Forces: TCU over Tulsa
Texas: Houston over Iowa State
Holiday: Oregon over Colorado
Humanitarian: Boise State over Buffalo
Alamo: Michigan State over Texas Tech
Papajohns.com: Rutgers over Mississippi
Independence: Kansas over Tennessee
Emerald: Arizona State over Maryland
Champs Sports: Iowa over N.C. State
Meineke Car Care: Wake Forest over Louisville
Motor City: Central Michigan over Purdue
Hawaii: Washington over Fresno State
Poinsettia: BYU over Middle Tennessee
New Orleans: Florida Atlantic over Southern Miss
Las Vegas: Utah over UCLA
St. Petersburg: Central Florida over Cincinnati
Congressional: Connecticut over Navy
New Mexico: Air Force over Hawaii
15. The Final Standings
Note: these are not my preseason rankings, but how I think they'll finish after the season plays out.
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. USC
4. Georgia
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Texas
11. West Virginia
12. Utah
13. North Carolina
14. Virginia Tech
15. LSU
16. Alabama
17. Illinois
18. Colorado
19. BYU
20. Texas Tech
21. South Florida
22. Clemson
23. Pittsburgh
24. Mississippi State
25. East Carolina
A note: I successfully predicted one bowl matchup right (the Rose), and did get 6 of the 10 BCS teams correct. I'll take that. And 16 of the final top 25, albeit scattered about. The rest, as you might have noted, was not pretty.
The lesson? These preseason predictions are extraordinarily difficult, and it's quite silly (but fun) to even try to predict some of these things. But I'd be willing to put my results on the line against just about anybody. I think I fared pretty well as a whole. Preseason picks are so hit or miss that if you nail one or two you look like a genius. At least until the rest of your results are examined.
Next week: my take on who next year's top 15 are (talk about an impossible and silly endeavor!).
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