1. I'm really not so good at picking bowl games. I suppose that should be obvious, given the 14-17 record so innocently posted next to this column. For whatever reason, the bowl season will end up my only .500 or below outing. Maybe it's all the upsets, but I picked a few of those. Maybe it's because you never know which teams come to their bowl games without any motivation, due to coaching shakeups, the month of disappointment over a worse than expected season, or off-field distractions. Maybe it's because some conferences (I'm talking about you, Big Ten and Big 12) look stronger than they really were during the regular season. Or maybe it's because I just don't know what I'm doing. Probably the latter.
2. We've vastly underestimated the Pac Ten. Five-and-oh in bowl games? Where did that come from? It was assumed that the Pac Ten was USC and a litter of kittens, but those middle of the pack teams that beat on each other all season proved much stronger than we all thought. So what does that say about the Mountain West, who pwned the Pac Ten all year?
3. We've vastly overestimated the Big 12. This doesn't bode well for Oklahoma. Those Big 12 South teams who seemed so menacing and powerful a few weeks ago? They've gone 0-2 so far in bowls, both against teams that appeared overmatched, and as I write this I'm watching Ohio State control the game against mighty Texas. And the Big 12 North's best, Missouri, needed overtime to beat Big Ten also-ran Northwestern. Maybe the Big 12 really was a bunch of good, but not great, offenses playing against some very poor defenses.
4. Bowls are boring. I tried this year. I really did. I wanted to give the bowls a chance, but try as I might, I can't get caught up in these games. If you think about it, 33 of the 34 postseason college football games are mere exhibitions, influencing only bragging rights and whether a team finishes 17th or 23rd in the final poll. Who cares? I appreciate the tradition and pageantry of the bowls and all they've done for college football, but their time has passed. In the old system several bowl games had bearing on the final #1, but the BCS has correctly given us a #1 vs. #2 game for all the marbles (most of the time), making the other bowls much more arbitrary. And less interesting. I suppose its all a by-product of a dramatic and deeply meaningful regular season, but the bowl season is very drawn out and anticlimactic. Why have a full 5 weeks between the last regular season game and the sports championship? And why fill that time with boring, ultimately meaningless games? It's hard to even get excited for the national championship game - it seems almost like a new season already. Maybe it is time to let tradition pass us by and move on to better things.
5. Does Utah deserve to be in the national title conversation? Not only did the Utes overwhelm an Alabama team ranked #1 for much of the year, they did it in the heart of SEC country. A relative home game for the Tide. Add that to the dominance the Pac Ten showed in the bowls, indirectly validating the Mountain West as a top notch conference due to their success in head to head games with Pac Ten teams, and you get a picture that Utah is much better than advertised. They are the only undefeated team left, and they did it in a conference every bit as strong as at least 2 of the BCS conference leagues. Why not throw a vote or two their way?
And now to the big game on Thursday in Miami. What I'll do is state a case for each team as to why they'll win, throw in a potential hindrance for each, and make the pick.
Why Oklahoma will win:
Offense, son! The Sooners have more offense than perhaps any team that's come before it, in the long history of college football. They may not score 60 points again, but don't put it past them. Sam Bradford works the ball to multiple receivers, they have home run threats at every skill position, and Florida will have too many people to think about to be able to defend them all. The Gators defense is strong, but they won't hold the Sooners down for long. Oklahoma will score.
The Sooner defense doesn't grab headlines, but they aren't too shabby either. Remember the rout of Texas Tech and their potent O? Defense dictated that. Oklahoma's rush defense ranked 16 in the country, so they'll contain Tebow and Harvin, and force Florida to win it through the air. And don't forget the intangibles: Oklahoma ranked 5th nationally in kickoff return average (Florida was 88th in kick return coverage) and first in turnover margin. A few timely turnovers and a return TD, or at least a field position advantage, is all the extra advantage the Sooners need.
Why Oklahoma should be concerned:
No matter how you spin it (as I just did), Oklahoma's defense isn't going to intimidate the Gators. While they ranked 16th nationally against the run, they graded out 98th (yikes) against the pass. Those number should be taken with a grain of salt - they play in a pass happy league and lots of teams were left passing because they were so far behind - but Tim Tebow and the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the country threaten to slice the Sooner D apart. Oklahoma must dictate first down - if the Gators have success on first down, giving themselves 2nd and short or better all night, the Sooners are in for a long night. Their defensive line play, stuffing the run and pressuring Tebow on first down, could be the key to the game.
Why Florida will win:
They do most of the same things Oklahoma does, plus play great defense. Florida's offense isn't that far behind Oklahoma's (scoring offense: OU #1, UF #3; QB rating: Bradford #1, Tebow #4; turnover margin: OU #1, UF #2). Florida also has the luxury of having a stalwart defense who gave SEC teams fits all year. They rank 8th in total defense; the highest ranked Big 12 team in that category was Texas at 49. TCU, the highest ranked defense in the land, held Oklahoma to 35, something Florida ought to be able to imitate, and the Gators shouldn't have trouble eclipsing that.
But even more so, Florida has the most competitive player in the game in Tim Tebow. The man won't let his team lose. He laid down the gauntlet for himself and his team after their stunning loss to Mississippi, and he's delivered each week. The Gators have played angry and loose since that defeat and have been untouchable since then, all a reflection of their leader: Tim Tebow. He's the one player in this game who either coach would trade anybody on their roster for.
Why Florida should be concerned:
How healthy will Percy Harvin be? The Gators did fine without him in the SEC Championship, but the national championship is a taller order. Harvin should be good to go, but a high ankle sprain takes a long time to fully heal, and the mental side of the injury could hamper Harvin as much as any lingering physical affects. Without him, the Gators offense takes a decided step back.
The selection:
Texas just scored in the last minute to beat an Ohio State team no one was really frightened of, another less than remarkable result by the Big 12 in this bowl season. I just can't shake the thought that the Big 12 isn't nearly as strong as everyone thought. None of those teams had a great nonconference resume, so was all that offense really a season-long smoke and mirrors show? Were they just racking up big numbers against one another, giving the nation the impression that the league was loaded with offense when in actuality it just held a dozen below average defenses? Florida has more substance - scoring at will against a group of much higher ranked defenses. I was going to pick the Gators in a squeaker, but I've changed my mind. This one just might get out of hand.
Florida 45, Oklahoma 21
Next week: a look at my preseason predictions and how I fared (hint - much of it will be laughter-inducing).
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