Week 5: The Blue-Grey October Sky

One of the greatest lines in all of sportswriting is, "Outlined against a blue-gray October sky the Four Horsemen rode again." Grantland Rice penned the line in describing the Notre Dame backfield of Harry Stuhldreher, Don Miller, Jim Crowley, and Elmer Layden, referencing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse in the book of Revelation. Sometimes I like to gather all the baritone I can muster and belt the line out in a John Facenda-like cadence, a great way to make my wife jump as we drive silently down a lonely highway. It captures the essence of old-school college football: power running attacks churning out offense in brutal fashion on raw, wind-whipped autumn Saturdays. Those days have arrived, at least in the northern states, as the calendar now turns to October - the heart of college football season. Enjoy.

1. Penn State at Illinois

Two years ago Penn State was ambushed by Arrelious Benn and the Illini, who became the darling of the Big Ten with their run to the Rose Bowl. My, how times have changed in Champaign. The Illini, with much the same personnel, can't seem to figure out where exactly the end zone is on the field. They could be the perfect remedy for a Penn State team who played an awful game last week at home, a game that exposed some serious weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball. Their offensive line has got to stay engaged in their blocks to prevent the tipped balls that led to several of Clark's INT's last week, and the receivers have to find ways to get open. The defense held strong last week, even with short fields much of the time, and they'll be able to smother the pitiful Illinois offense. Penn State bounces back with a good road win.

Penn State 24, Illinois 10

2. Oklahoma at Miami (FL)

If only the Oklahoma coaching staff would cooperate with we who make our picks mid-week. The jury is still out on the return of Sam Bradford this week. My hunch is that he'll play, but I'm not sure it will matter a whole lot. Miami will play better than it did last week, especially Jacory Harris, but offense is not the concern area for them; defense is. The Hurricane D played well against Georgia Tech in stopping the flexbone, but allowed 34 to Florida State (who managed 19 against Jacksonville State and 7 against South Florida) and 31 to Virginia Tech. Oklahoma's offense, even behind Landry Jones, is better than both those units. With Sam Bradford, the separation increases. I expect Miami to move the ball fairly well, but they won't keep up with the Sooners.

Oklahoma 38, Miami (FL) 24

3. USC at California

The sheen is off this one after Cal was slaughtered at Oregon, and USC suddenly looks very ordinary. I like Cal's offense to rebound and score like they ought to. USC's offense is a different story. The out-of-sync passing game trickles down to the run, as defenses can load the box to stop the sextuplet of tailbacks. Perhaps trotting out so many backs has hurt more than helped too - no one can get into a rhythm, something runningbacks need to be productive. The Trojans lose here and have a huge hole to climb out of if they want to re-enter the Pac Ten race.

California 24, USC 20

4. UCLA at Stanford

Who'd have thought the day would come so quickly when UCLA would have a 2 game lead on crosstown rival USC in the Pac Ten standings in early October? Yet it could come Saturday. A USC loss and a UCLA win would give the Bruins a 2 game head start in the loss column. To do it, they need to get by a tough Stanford team who looks like they can be a thorn in the sides of the Pac Ten contenders. UCLA gets a late field goal to win.

UCLA 20, Stanford 19

5. LSU at Georgia

LSU at #4 might be the most skewed ranking all season. The Tigers have won, but barely, against what should be vastly inferior opponents, and have done nothing to deserve a top 15, let alone top 5 ranking. Joe Cox (who I a few weeks ago mistakenly labeled incapable of running the show) and the Georgia offense will roll through LSU and expose the overrated Tigers for who they really are.

Georgia 41, LSU 28

6. Texas A&M at Arkansas

The Aggies are quietly 3-0 but haven't played anyone of consequence yet. Arkansas is a team of consequence.

Arkansas 42, Texas A&M 27

7. Auburn at Tennessee

For all of Gene Chizik's reported defensive wizardry, Auburn's defense has been quite average. Luckily for them, their offense has soared. The Tigers deserve to be ranked (and probably higher than nickname-brethren LSU), but face a tough road trip at the Volunteers Saturday night. It marks the Tigers first road game this season, and it's to a tough, large stadium at night. The Tennessee defense, clearly the stronger of the Vols 2 units, will find a way to slow Auburn down, and the Vol offense will be able to move the ball against the Auburn D. Turnovers could end up deciding the game, and if Tennessee can protect the ball they should win.

Tennessee 23, Auburn 20

8. Wisconsin at Minnesota

Ah, Big Ten trophy games. Every conference has trophy games, but the Big Ten’s are by far the most unique, with such awards as the “Old Oaken Bucket” and the “Old Brass Spittoon”. The conference’s trophy contests kicked off last week when Ohio State and Illinois played for the Illibuck trophy, which is a large wooden turtle. If you were to put all living things on a spectrum, apparently a turtle is exactly in the center between a warrior chief and a poisonous nut. Seems about right. Or at least that’s the most reasonable explanation for why those 2 schools play for a wooden turtle. This game’s trophy, Paul Bunyan’s Axe, makes much more sense. As the story goes, in 1892 the axe was found resting on a rock directly in the center of the St. Croix River, which forms a border between the two states. Both states claimed the artifact as their own, and not surprisingly due to the icy relationships between the governments of the two at the time, a small dispute was touched off. Fourteen Minnesotans and eight Wisconsinites died in the 2 day “Bunyan War”, known outside the region as the “War of the Long ‘O’”. Thankfully, the state legislatures came to their senses and ended the war peacefully, with the agreement that the winner of the annual football game between the two states’ public universities would hold the axe for that year.

Ok, so that's a complete fabrication, but don't you wish it were true?

Minnesota 26, Wisconsin 24

9. Michigan at Michigan State

Another Big Ten trophy game related to Paul Bunyan, mythological hero of the Midwest. How did this Easter Bunny-like fable manage to get his name on 2 trophies? Couldn't they devote one to Babe the Blue Ox, Bunyan's bovine companion? This one is less impressive than a six-foot axe, though more formidable - it totals 9 feet tall. Apparently they wanted a statue only Bunyan himself could lift. The Wolverines have been cruising along nicely, but like Auburn, plays their first road game of the year this week, also in a hostile environment. If their close call with Indiana is any indication, their 4-0 ranking hides a team that still has a long way to go. Michigan State's not going to scare them, not with their paltry 1-3 start, but the Spartans will have emotion to go with their home-field advantage, and will be playing hungry. A win could save their season. When in doubt, go with the hungrier team.

Michigan State 31, Michigan 24

10. Colorado at West Virginia

Dan Hawkins leads his disappointing Buffaloes to West Virginia, still smarting from their loss to Auburn in a game they should have won. West Virginia, as with the rest of the Big East, is better than expected and should handle Colorado easily.

West Virginia 35, Colorado 20

11. Pittsburgh at Louisville

Pitt looks to bounce back from their tough loss at N.C. State. The defense, considered to be the team's strong suit before the year began, could use some work, and Louisville's offense might provide the sort of practice squad they need. Pitt is clearly the stronger team and will win as long as they don't beat themselves. That might have characterized them in the past, but this year's version of the Panthers doesn't resemble that sort of team.

Pittsburgh 34, Louisville 26

12. Washington at Notre Dame

The Huskies stay in the top 25 was expectedly short lived, though their takedown of USC was glorious. They had their day for this season, and their fall will continue in South Bend. The fall of the Irish will have to wait at least one more week. Jimmy Clausen vs. Jake Locker is one of the more underrated QB matchups all season.

Notre Dame 31, Washington 21

13. Florida State at Boston College

Will the real Florida State please stand up? The Seminoles went from scoring 54 at BYU (who surrendered just 13 to Oklahoma) to scoring 7 at home against South Florida. Yes, the Bulls were geeked up for that game, as many of South Florida's recruits were local guys who weren't given a shot at FSU, but 7 points is pathetic. In Florida State's favor, Boston College isn't nearly the team they've been in the past half-decade. And the Seminoles best game this season, by far, was played on the road.

Florida State 28, Boston College 27

14. Houston at UTEP

Trap alert for Houston! UTEP was smoked 64-7 against Texas last week, and could easily be overlooked by the Cougars, who are riding high in the national spotlight as the non-BCS team of the week. Their emotional victory over Texas Tech, which followed a shocking and hard-earned road win at Oklahoma State, could leave them unmotivated and expecting a breather. It happens all the time, even in the NFL. And if it can happen to the pro's, it can happen to a Conference USA team unaccustomed to dealing with such loftly success. Houston will come out very slow and fall behind the Miners, only to wake up at halftime and pull out a too-close-for-comfort victory.

Houston 35, UTEP 31

15. Oregon State at Arizona State

The typical Oregon State season is unfolding: a few early season losses, coupled with unspectacular wins, makes everyone sleep on them until they're suddenly in the thick of the Pac Ten race. They visit Tempe as underdogs in the type of game that can propel them into another solid year. They catch Arizona State at the right time too, coming off a heartbreaking cross-country road loss.

Oregon State 24, Arizona State 21

Next: no Saturday post, as I'll be somewhere deep in Pennsylvania Amish country on a retreat, away from TV, internet, and the English language. I'll be back next Wednesday with another week of failed guesses and off-the-mark humor attempts.

Saturday Postgame: Week 4

Iowa. Iowa. Again. Iowa. So aggravating.

I didn't know how to feel about this year's Penn State team. I knew a #5 ranking was too high, but I didn't expect the offensive egg they laid. Yikes. They'll lose a few more before the season's out. And I can't put my finger on what it is that's missing. Talent? Check. Speed? Check. Experience? Check, at least in the backfield. Play calling? Check - the offense is much more open than a typical Paterno team and the play calling is diverse. I think it comes down to 2 things. First, the offensive line just isn't there much of the time. They show flashes of brilliance, which shows the potential they have, but for most of the night they were dominated by the strong Iowa defensive front. Second is the wide receivers. They're talented and could turn out to be nearly as productive as the studs who just graduated, but they have big strides to make. Tonight they just couldn't seem to get separation in the secondary, and as a result Clark was forced to hold the ball longer, take sacks, throw under pressure, and force throws. Those two areas come together, and PSU will be ok. They don't, and it could be an 8-4 year. We'll see.

Losing hurts, especially if you think your team might have a shot at the national title. And you have a coach who you know is holding on for that one last shot. Last year hurt a lot worse than this one, and the 1999 loss to Minnesota when I was a student hurt 100 times worse than that. When I was a sophomore and our season was killed in November by Minnesota, it literally felt like someone died. I went through mourning and actual pain. Kind of sad if you think about it - that a football loss would affect a person that much. Yet people - fans, I'm talking about, players will understandably take losses harder as they are the ones putting their labor and heart into the games - fans get despondent, depressed, sometimes even near-suicidal when their team takes a tough, season crushing loss. The reverse is true too - we tie our happiness or even self-worth to the success of our teams. What does that indicate about what we value most highly in life? We sometimes take sports losses harder than deaths in the family. Sadly, I'm guilty of that - that Penn State loss, in some ways, stuck with me longer than grandparents' deaths.

I love sports, but this is one of the parts of the sports culture we live in that annoys me. There is so much more in life and so many greater things to live for. Yes, sports are emotional and that certainly plays a part, but to reach such low lows and high highs, to me, indicates a priority problem. Thankfully, I don't take losses so hard and wins so ecstatically anymore (most of the time). I'm into the game and emotional about it, but I've gained lots of perspective over the past 10 years or so. My life revolves around a greater purpose and bigger priorities now. Chiefly that's come because of a relationship with Jesus that began for me in college. I live now with a perspective on eternity, not simply the here and now, and there is a deeper, fuller satisfaction and purpose that has come in following Christ. Having a family has added new perspective and values too. Some men never seem to make that transition, living hollow lives revolving around sports or experiences or accumulation of wealth or possessions, even with family or religion or community involvement in their lives. I hope more men make those priority shifts - our lives and our society would be better off for it.

And on to a few other observations and thoughts from the crazy weekend...

I certainly was right about my "Upset Saturday" claim in my Wednesday post, only I wish some of the actual results of those upsets were different. I'm relying on Texas Tech to pull it out in Houston to give me an above .500 record for the week. That's what happens when you call a weekend full of upsets then forecast many of the wrong ones. You end up doubling your losses - losing both the perceived upsets and the real ones you didn't call. At least I can take comfort in that I wasn't that far off. And I did nail the Ole Miss and Cal losses. Some consolation.

With everyone jumping onto the Miami bandwagon at the same time, the dang thing tipped over. In hindsight, should it not have been at least a bit alarming that everyone was talking up the Canes and no one raised any red flags? It was two games! They suddenly were getting votes for number 1! Oh, to be able to turn back the clock - I'd have looked so smart.

I made a bonus pick on Wednesday that one of the following four would lose: Florida, LSU, Michigan, and Cincinnati. The results? Florida won easily, but the other 3 were leaning on the ropes pretty heavily. LSU was about an inch shy of losing in Starkville. Michigan got the benefit of a generous, to say the least, call that resulted in a game clinching pick. Cincinnati was pushed to the end by a very good but very unfortunate Fresno State team. So close!

Jacory Harris had a terrible week, meaning he's off the Heisman hopeful list for the time being. Replacing him as the darkhorse candidate? Blaine Gabbert of Missouri.

TCU took a big step in proving they're the real deal. With a road win against a good Clemson team in their back pocket, an undefeated run through the MWC will get them into a BCS bowl, and a very outside shot at entering the championship game conversation.

Notre Dame snuck another one out, but they're not a complete team yet. 8-4 would be a good season the way they look now.

The whole college football landscape may hinge on the diagnosis of Tim Tebow. Florida hasn't looked unbeatable with him, and would be extremely vulnerable without him. If he's out for a lengthy time, the national championship picture is really wide open.

How did Ohio State not beat USC? The Trojans haven't exactly cruised against Washington State, aka the worst BCS conference team in the history of conference play, and this after a loss to a Washington team that got housed by Stanford. Ohio State has pitched shutouts the last 2 weeks. I think the Buckeyes lost simply because of a mental barrier.

Look out for Oregon. 42-3 over Cal will open some eyes. They're suddenly the top dog in the Pac Ten. Who would have thunk that 3 weeks ago? And Boise State is loving it.

Last year Maryland had an on-again, off-again relationship with football, appearing to field an entirely different team each week. One terrible, one electric. This year's Maryland? Florida State.

53 seconds left in Houston...waiting to end the post until those run off.

And Houston comes back to win, sticking me with a losing record for just the second time in 2 seasons. Upset Saturday indeed.

Week 4: Overrated/Underrated

If you've been reading this blog long enough you already know my opinion of preseason polls: they're unfair, biased, and ridiculous. Not because of the fact that they rate teams before games are played (which is in itself ridiculous), but because they directly affect the outcome of the season. The coaches poll is a factor in the BCS formula, and the fact that all the teams don't start on an even playing field baffles me. So when we get to this point in the season, the general shape of those preseason rankings still hold, and where a team is ranked doesn't necessarily suggest how good they really are. There are lots of overrated and underrated teams out there, due almost solely to the sheer fact that a bunch of coaches and sportswriters thought they'd be something they didn't turn out to be.

So what I'd like to do this week is to label 8 teams who are overrated and 8 who are underrated. Why 8? It just feels right. Let me add a few disclaimers before getting to the lists, so you don't go ape when you see certain teams included. I'm only evaluating teams who are either ranked or receiving votes in the polls. This is consistent with the word "rated" found in each of the parent words. I'm also evaluating it solely on whether a team is worthy of their ranking or deserves to be higher or lower.

Overrated

Texas: The Longhorns have won rather comfortably, but something seems missing. They don't have the Wow factor you'd like to see from a #2 team with one of college football's great QB's. They're likely to turn on the afterburners sooner or later, so this one could look rather silly in a few weeks.

Penn State: Yes, my Nittany Lions are on the overrated list. Maybe I'm not such a homer after all. Don't get me wrong, I love the fact that they're comfortably in the top 5 right now, but I don't think it's deserved. The offensive line is questionable and they don't have the top gear last year's team did.

LSU: The Tigers are possibly the most undeserving top 10 team. They haven't done anything to impress and they still have offensive issues. Against inferior competition, they've only averaged 162 passing yards and 325 total, numbers which ought to be much higher right now.

USC: Didn't drop far enough. Time will tell whether the Washington loss was their typical swoon to an unranked conference foe or a harbinger of hard times. My guess is the latter. They've scored less than 20 in two straight (even LSU scored 31 @ the Huskies), and they've got a brutal mid-season schedule with road games at Cal, Notre Dame, and Oregon.

Oklahoma State: Reports of national championship chances were greatly overestimated.

Houston: I did a double-take when I saw them in the top 25. Sure, they beat Okie State, but let's not go crazy. Their defense will invariably let them down, probably as early as this weekend.

North Carolina: Creeping along at 3-0, but they don't have the feel of a top 25 team. Needed a penalty-generated safety to squeak by UConn.

Washington: This week's Houston, slipping into the top 25 after beating an overrated team. This team did go 0-12 last season, remember? They'll have a good season, but they'll lose Saturday and won't see the top 25 again.

Underrated

Alabama: As impressive as anyone so far. The Tide hasn't missed a beat from last year, only now they have a year of experience under their belts and a hunger that losing their last 2 games produced. You know they are licking their chops at the potential of another matchup with Florida in the SEC Championship.

California: Firepower on offense and a coach who needs to prove he can produce a top-flight team after seasons of promise that ended in disappointment. But will the road woes persist this year?

Oklahoma: I'm going to go ahead and call the BYU game a fluke. When Bradford returns, the Sooners will return to form and become the team to beat in the Big 12.

Cincinnati: Might have the best set of road wins in the country (@ Rutgers, @ Oregon State). Offense is as good as anyone in the country, but the name on the jersey keeps them from the top 10.

Nebraska: Every bit as good as a Virginia Tech team who hung with Alabama. The distance they fell after a tough loss was too far.

Pittsburgh: Panthers have done everything they can to be ranked right now, yet haven't been given the proper respect. They'll challenge Cincy for the crown in a rising Big East conference.

Iowa: They've gotten too much negative publicity for their escape against Northern Iowa. This team is as tough and disciplined as last year's, and still have a great shot at winning the Big Ten.

South Florida: This applies to the team that played the first 3 games of the season, with Matt Groethe at the helm. Without him, their spot in the "also receiving votes" category is about right.

On to the games. I'm going to go ahead and label this weekend "Upset Saturday". There are lots of potential upsets on the board, and this is the week when conference play begins in earnest. Conference play really opens the door to upsets, as teams begin playing opponents who are familiar with them on a weekly basis. Last year the last Saturday in September was when we saw Ole Miss take down Florida in a day full of head-turners.

1. Iowa at Penn State

So I've gotten you all primed and ready with my mention of Penn State as overrated and Iowa as underrated, then dropped my "Upset Saturday" prediction upon you. Will I go all the way and take Iowa to win its 7th of 8 vs. the Nittany Lions? In short, no. Upset Saturday won't extend to Happy Valley, though this game could turn out to be very close. Iowa does seem to have Penn State's number, but avenging last year's heartbreaking defeat will be too heavy on the minds of the Lions. Penn State's defense, which couldn't stop Ricky Stanzi and the Hawkeye passing game last year, is better than the stout unit from a year ago, and Iowa is without a back like Shonn Greene to soften things up for Stanzi. The platoon of Hawkeye backs will be swallowed by the Penn State front seven, and the resulting one-dimensional offense will struggle. That, and playing at night in Beaver Stadium essentially gives the Lions a 7-10 point head start.

Penn State 24, Iowa 13

2. Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech

Jacory Harris faces his toughest test yet as surging Miami visits hostile Lane Stadium. The Hokies are very good, especially on defense, but are coming off an exhausting, emotional win. It's hard to get up the next week after those. And Miami is better than Nebraska, however improved the Huskers might be. The Jacory Harris bandwagon gets larger, and Miami sets itself up for a suddenly mammoth game in south Florida against Oklahoma.

Miami (FL) 27, Virginia Tech 21

3. California at Oregon

I labeled Cal as underrated, but I'm still not totally sold on them. A win here would move them into true national championship contender status, but it won't be easy. Oregon has righted the ship after their disastrous trip to Boise, and could put that loss even further in the rear view by beating a top 10 team. They're a strong home team, and Cal has a habit of losing these sorts of games.

Oregon 34, California 31

4. Mississippi at South Carolina

Ole Miss has crept into the top 5 without doing a whole lot, and this trip to a rabid stadium will be their first true test. Are they truly a contender, or is it all hype? I touted them as more hype than substance before the season began, and I'll put my money where my mouth is with this pick. The Gamecocks defense frustrates Jevan Snead and Spurrier coaxes enough offense out of his squad to make this the first major Thursday night upset of the year.

South Carolina 23, Mississippi 20

5. South Florida at Florida State

The loss of Matt Groethe will be too much for South Florida, who have circled this game for a long, long time. Too bad, a healthy Groethe would have made it a compelling show.

Florida State 35, South Florida 20

6. North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech should be concerned about a porous defense that allowed Miami to move the ball at will and allowed Clemson to jump back into a game they never should have been in. North Carolina has the talent to give the Yellow Jackets trouble, but they did struggle to score against the only other BCS conference opponent they've played so far. I think Georgia Tech will get it done with an extra few days to rest and a chip on their shoulder.

Georgia Tech 28, North Carolina 21

7. TCU at Clemson

I pegged TCU as my BCS buster for the year, but I'm having some second thoughts. They've been unfocused at times and susceptible to big passing plays, which Clemson could exploit. Clemson's offense could be the toughest the Horned Frogs face all season, and definitely will be the quickest - C.J. Spiller being the main reason for that. But TCU's defense, apart from a few lapses, has been as strong as any so far. They should be able to handle Clemson's explosiveness. This is the toughest game for me to pick this week, as evidenced by my rambling and general avoidance of making a decision. I...just...can't...figure...it...out. The ol' hamster turning the wheel inside my brain is about to have a heart attack. Grr...going with Clemson because their defense could smother a somewhat pedestrian TCU offense. WHEW - that was tough.

Clemson 19, TCU 17

8. Texas Tech at Houston

Hearkening back to the days of the Southwest Conference, a home game for Houston will be televised nationally. In the late 80's and early 90's, when the SWC fuse burned out, Houston ran the run-n-shoot offense to perfection, rolling up scores in the 70's routinely. This version of the Cougars high-powered display won't score quite that many, but they can rack them up too. Problem is, they don't have a defense to accompany it, and that's why Texas Tech will win - behind a potent, pass-happy offense of their own.

Texas Tech 48, Houston 42

9. Arizona State at Georgia

Georgia is clearly the better team here, but the Bulldogs have played some long games against 3 above-average opponents. How much steam do they have left? You'd think they need a cupcake game in there somewhere just to catch their breath. I'm not sure their offense can keep up the frenetic pace it's set the past 2 weeks. And their defense's lack of stopping South Carolina and Arkansas, not exactly the 1989 Buffalo Bills, is concerning. I don't see Arizona State waltzing into Athens and pulling the upset, but this one will be much much closer than expected.

Georgia 34, Arizona State 31

10. Washington at Stanford

As mentioned earlier, Washington's stay in the top 25 won't last long. They're due for a letdown after such a big victory, and Stanford is the type of steady, well-coached, smart team you don't want to play in that situation.

Stanford 23, Washington 13

11. Illinois at Ohio State

The magic of 2007, when Illinois left Ohio Stadium with a monumental upset victory, has long since faded. This Illinois team is a far cry from that one, and Ohio State looks like they're getting better every week.

Ohio State 31, Illinois 13

12. Arkansas at Alabama

Defense wins, and Alabama's might be the best there is in college football. Mitch Mustain won't scare them. Alabama won a lot of games last year with a smothering defense and an offense that did enough when it mattered, and I think this game could be much like that.

Alabama 27, Arkansas 10

13. Southern Mississippi at Kansas

I've read the stats that show that a) Kansas has a potent passing game, and b) Southern Miss has a holey secondary (or maybe "holy" would be better - the word means "set apart", and the Southern Miss secondary has been set apart from opposing receivers by at least 5 yards. HA HA HA! How about that corny theology-speak joke!). But I have no problem overlooking these numbers. I think Southern Miss beats Kansas, for no other reason that they're Southern Miss and scaring or knocking off big-conference powers is what they do. They've done it for over 15 years now, no reason to stop! Call this my blind faith pick of the week. (ANOTHER ONE! ROTFL!)

Southern Mississippi 35, Kansas 27

14. Pittsburgh at N.C. State

As you'll soon see in the WITTPWLLN feature, I thought N.C. State would race out of the gate with a soft schedule and what appeared to be winnable games at home against South Carolina and Pitt in September. Wrong. The Wolfpack managed a field goal against South Carolina, and games against Pitt are looking less and less winnable by the week. The Panthers roll on.

Pittsburgh 31, N.C. State 24

15. Michigan State at Wisconsin

The Spartans look to right the ship after two tough losses. They have the defense to stop a slow, grinding Wisconsin offense. Unlike previous Michigan State teams, Mark D'Antonio won't let the Spartans abandon their season, and a good win against a solid team in a tough environment will set Michigan State back on track.

Michigan State 20, Wisconsin 17

Bonus Pick! Adding credence to my "Upset Saturday" claim, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that one of the following four teams will lose this weekend in a seismic upset, in order of probability. I'm not brazen enough to make any of these part of the 15, but I'm willing to go this far.

LSU (@ Miss. St.)

Michigan (vs. Indiana)

Cincinnati (vs. Fresno St.)

Florida (@ Kentucky)

Next: check back Saturday late-night for some recap action, and to laugh mockingly at how my bold claims of an upset-filled weekend have resulted in my being red-faced and sullen.

Week 3: Priorities Please

It has been hard to miss the ubiquitous DirecTV commercials that have been flying around the airwaves the last month or so. It's true, they are for the NFL, but they bring up something that's a bit of an annoyance for me. One of the commercials advertises the NFL Game Mix, which is essentially a display of all the games being contested at that time. At a certain level this is attractive, but if you really think about it, how can anyone possibly watch this without their brain exploding?

Beyond that, unless you're Peter King or Chris Mortensen, why in the world do you need the DirecTV game mix? You can't possibly need to watch every single play from every single game live, as it happens. It's just an excuse to park in front of the TV all day and disengage from the world. It's hard enough to think about anything else when you're watching one game, let alone 8 at once.

And the college game (since this is a college blog) has similar enticements. ESPN GamePlan, the conference networks that are starting up, several college sports only channels, ESPN360.com, etc.

It's my belief that many of the ills of society can be traced, either directly or indirectly, to men disengaging from their responsibilities - fatherhood, husbandhood (that's actually a word - spell checker didn't underline it!), church and community leadership, mentoring. The reasoning behind that statement is another topic for another day, but my point is this - things like the DirecTV Game Mix, ESPN GamePlan, and loads of other things like video games, 500+ channel cable packages, and the slew of things that can be purchased with disposable income (or an incurrence of debt) all contribute to the distancing of men from authentic manhood. You won't hear me go so far as to say that watching sports or playing video games or purchasing boats are evil - that's way extreme - but what our culture often lacks is balance and priorities. The plethora of things that provide some level of instant gratification or some quick rush of excitement, coupled with the 24/7 availability of those things, mean that there is constant bait out there for us to swallow. What taking the bait does though, is pull us away from priorities and pursuing what's most important in life (hint - it's not football). As men reach the twilight of their lives, you won't find them saying, "Boy, I really wish I would have gotten that DirecTV Game Mix. I really missed out!" No, you find men wishing they'd spent more time with family, that they wouldn't have worked so hard and missed so much of their kids' childhood, that they'd prioritized their lives differently.

I've spent many a Saturday afternoon parked in front of the TV, surfing from game to game, reveling in a college football feast. But you know what? I can barely remember those days now. What I do remember are sweet times with my wife and daughter, or with the men who are my closest friends (yes, sometimes these do involve football too). My goal now, and I suppose what I hope to call others to through this soapbox moment, is to choose right priorities, to pursue balance and moderation, and to spend my best hours pursuing that which is most important to me - God, family, ministry, community. And yes, it's easier said than done.

And on to the picks. While last week looked like a truck stop steak dinner that turned out to be a premium grade A cut, this week looks like a bountiful buffet feast, with interesting games all through the weekend. Many of the most attractive non-conference games of the season lie in this week's schedule, and a few conference games worth keeping an eye on too. Hopefully the result will turn out as good as the promise. Enjoy the games - just don't watch them all at once.

1. Tennessee at Florida

Tennessee fell back to earth last week, revealing in the process that they're not quite ready to make the leap to SEC East threat quite yet, especially on offense. Florida meanwhile has yet to shift out of first gear and has still outscored their opponents a combined 118-9. Imagine what it could be like when Urban Meyer has his squad go to fifth gear against Tennessee - a longtime rival coached by Lane Kiffin, who's done everything he can to get under Meyer's skin, including accusing him of cheating in recruiting and saying this little nugget at his introductory press conference when named head coach: "I'm really looking forward to...singing Rocky Top all night long after we beat Florida next year." Oops. I found an article from fanhouse.com that showed a picture of Lane's quote hanging in the Florida locker room in March. Watch this one only for the smug look on Meyer's face as he rolls up the score, because it won't be anything close to close.

Florida 62, Tennessee 7

2. Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)

In just a few seconds, Miami went from staring an 0-4 start in the face to having a realistic shot at 4-0. Florida State's Jarmon Fortson couldn't quite hold on to a last second pass in the end zone, turning loss into victory for the Hurricanes. The result of that game, coupled with the fact that Sam Bradford likely won't be back yet when the Canes face Oklahoma in a few weeks, makes each of the games in their gauntlet very winnable. It's not likely they'll win them each, not with @Virginia Tech and home for Oklahoma on back to back Saturdays, but it's not as impossible as it once seemed. Could we be looking at Miami sitting proudly in the top 10 by mid-October? Georgia Tech will be a stiff test Thursday, but it's the easiest of the 3 big hurdles left for Miami. I don't like how Tech let Clemson, a team that is known to collapse like a paper house in a tornado when it faces any sort of adversity, back in the game after opening a 24-0 lead last week. That tells me they are prone to lapses in focus, which Jacory Harris and Miami could take advantage of with some quick strikes.

Miami (FL) 27, Georgia Tech 23

3. Texas Tech at Texas

The Longhorns get some revenge from last year's Game of the Year loss in Lubbock against a Texas Tech team that is a shell of last year's version. Hard to believe that this game, amid all the possibilities, is the primetime national game and site of ESPN Gameday.

Texas 45, Texas Tech 28

4. Nebraska at Virginia Tech

This should be the primetime game - two tradition-laden schools that rest firmly in the top 20. Nebraska's young QB Zac Lee will face his stiffest test yet against the Hokie defense, which still stands head and shoulders above the Blackshirts, improved as they may be. Homefield advantage will be sizeable too, as Lane Stadium will be raucous as their Hokies welcome an old school power to town.

Virginia Tech 20, Nebraska 13

5. Georgia at Arkansas

Oklahoma State's loss to Houston doesn't help the Bulldogs any, who only managed 10 points against an Oklahoma State defense that surrendered 45 to Houston. Something tells me that Joe Cox isn't the right guy under center for Georgia, he seems like he could be more of a liability than an asset. Against tough SEC defenses, he'll be called on to generate offense, but can he do it? Arkansas isn't the toughest D the SEC offers, but the Razorbacks are sort of an "it" sleeper from the conference, with Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet at the helm of Bobby Petrino's offense. Arkansas welcomes itself to the national conversation with an upset of Georgia.

Arkansas 35, Georgia 27

6. Michigan State at Notre Dame

Weird things tend to happen in this series, and the road team has seemed to fare better. But I can't take Michigan State in light of their gift-wrapped loss to Central Michigan last week. Notre Dame bounces back from a tough loss by pushing around the other Michigan team.

Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 17

7. Utah at Oregon

Logic says take Utah in light of how poor Oregon has been so far. But the Utes haven't looked stellar either. They've had unimpressive wins over teams they ought to have clobbered, and Autzen Stadium is a tough place to play, even against a team that has yet to find itself. An Oregon loss would put them first in the race to be given the "Without a Parachute" Award, given to the highly ranked preseason team who fell most quickly and abruptly. An award proudly owned by Michigan in 2007 and Arizona State in 2008. But I think Oregon circles the wagons and ekes out a win at home.

Oregon 26, Utah 24

8. Florida State at BYU

The Mountain West cannot be faulted for lazy scheduling. The conference has demonstrated a willingness to take on anyone, which meshes well with the mentality of their conference commissioner - the most vocal and active in seeking to take down the BCS. It helps that they have some teams that can play too. It would be easy to blame Florida State's abysmal performance against Jacksonville State on a short week, but it might be a sign of more pressing concerns. We'll find out this week, as they face a BYU team as tough as anyone in the ACC, maybe even the whole country.

BYU 24, Florida State 23

9. Arizona at Iowa

Arizona was the wild card in Pac-10 predictions. I saw them ranked as low as 8th, just one small step above the lowly Washington teams, and as high as a frisky pick to crack the conferences top 4. My guess is that they'll fall somewhere in the middle, but they do pose a threat to Iowa in this one. The Hawkeyes righted the ship in a big way, destroying their rival last week, and I'm guessing that's what they needed to get their season, which still could turn out to be very good, back on the rails. They have too much muscle for the Wildcats.

Iowa 21, Arizona 17

10. West Virginia at Auburn

The toughest pick of the week. Auburn has managed to score plenty of points, albeit against less than formidable competition, but they've also allowed more than you'd expect too. West Virginia is capable of putting up some digits behind Jarrett Brown and Noel Devine, but they too have allowed more points than their fans are comfortable with against inferior opponents. In a coin flip, I'm going to go with West Virginia. They have more of a run/pass balance on offense, and I fear that inconsistency at the QB position for Auburn could do them in.

West Virginia 31, Auburn 28

11. Cincinnati at Oregon State

I'll be honest. I could not even come close to naming who Oregon State has played so far. I scan the scores at the end of the day Saturday, but no Beaver score is standing out to me. I know they rest just outside the top 25, so they must be doing something right, but I know little to nothing about them. Jaquizz Rodgers, the scatback who emerged as a star in the USC game last year, is still there. I know that. I get the sense, though, that if Cincy won in Corvallis it would be an upset. It's not often that a team comes across the country and outplays the well-coached Beavers. But I think Cincy could be the real deal, which means that they're one of the few who can step in there and win.

Cincinnati 34, Oregon State 24

12. California at Minnesota

I had this labeled as an upset before the season began, and it very well could be. California got lambasted last year when they played Maryland in a noon ET kickoff, which is when this game will start. But Minnesota hasn't done anything to impress me in squeaking by both Syracuse and Air Force. They seem to be a gritty bunch who can win close games, but it will take more than grit to knock of Cal.

California 30, Minnesota 21

13. Northwestern at Syracuse

Yes, for the third straight week Syracuse makes the freshman fifteen. What can I say, I like the direction the Orange are heading, even with 2 losses to open the season. I think they finally break through this week - the home crowd is back behind them and Northwestern struggled to hold off a pathetic Eastern Michigan side last weekend.

Syracuse 28, Northwestern 27

14. Boise State at Fresno State

This could be the toughest test left on the schedule for Boise State, as both Nevada and Louisiana Tech have yet to show that they're anything close to a threat yet. Fresno State has played well to open the season, taking Wisconsin to double OT last week. But the Broncos, behind a suddenly stout defense (4 ppg allowed), are way too much for anyone in this conference to handle, even an amped up Fresno State.

Boise State 33, Fresno State 14

15. Navy at Pittsburgh

Navy has beaten Pitt before - just 2 years ago at Heinz Field, in fact. And if they can scare the living daylights out of Ohio State, what might be possible here? But I'm not going to fall for that logic again. Pitt is looking very strong. While the defense still needs a bit of work, the offense is moving along just fine. Shady McCoy hasn't been missed yet, as freshman Dion Lewis has exceeded even the high expectations that were bestowed upon him. Pitt wins on the strength of that run game and an offensive line that will overpower the smaller Navy defensive front.

Pittsburgh 38, Navy 27

Next week: um, more of the same I guess. Nothing special to lure you in with. I know you're good for coming back anyway. Oh, and no Saturday recap this week - I'll be away at a conference and likely won't be able to watch much football, let alone write somewhat intelligent thoughts about it.