Week 5: The Misinterpretation of David and Goliath

One of the most cliched cliches in all of sports is that of calling a particular matchup a "David vs. Goliath" encounter. You can find it in almost any sport, whenever a no-chance underdog faces the daunting odds of trying to take down an apparently all-powerful behemoth. In the college football realm, I'd be remiss not to mention the most memorable of all David vs. Goliath takedowns - Appalachian State's pantsing of Michigan in their own digs. A wonderful afternoon in the annals of the sport.


The problem with the cliche is, it's completely reversed. A read of the original David vs. Goliath encounter, when the actual David met the actual Goliath on a field in Palestine (from the Old Testament passage 1 Samuel 17), shows that the underdog was not actually our ruddy little friend David. Sure, based on sheer size, strength, and girth, Goliath had David licked. But David brought more than a few stones and a slingshot into battle with him that day - he had on his side the power of the Almighty God. And this was a force Goliath could not, and should not, have reckoned with. The jolly old green giant had no chance. David was the hands-down favorite.


Sadly for many a David who've taken the field against a so-called Goliath, their story doesn't play out that way. No matter how wretched a team might be (coughMichigancough), in football, the Almighty God doesn't choose sides. 


And why do I bring this up, with no real David and Goliath matchups on the slate this weekend? Simple - I was just thinking about it, that's all. And now for the rest of our business...


1. Penn State at Iowa
Again, not the most power-packed of all the monster matchups this weekend, but it's first in my book. Check last week's post if you're unclear as to why that is. As much as I'd like it to not be this way, this season seems like one of those where Penn State beats all the teams they should and gets dumped by everyone better than they are. It's not unprecedented, and when it happens it usually involves a sluggish PSU offense who struggles to reach double-digits in road games against top teams. Iowa certainly would qualify. They've got a rugged defense who will likely force several turnovers, and they're likely to turn one of those into a defensive touchdown. Penn State's defense, which has struggled against Ricky Stanzi before, will keep the Hawkeyes within shouting distance, but Rob Bolden is going to take a few more lumps before he hits his stride. Which, barring injury, he will.
Iowa 20, Penn State 9


2. Florida at Alabama
For the last 2 seasons, this game has decided both the SEC Championship and a berth in the BCS title game. It's much to early in the season to discern if that will be true this time around, but hindsight could show us that it happened for a third straight year. For Florida, a win in Tuscaloosa could be the wake-up call and springboard they need to make a title run. They've got LSU and South Carolina in Gainesville, Georgia is looking sickly, and the only marginally difficult road game is the last one, in Tallahassee. Don't think Urban Meyer won't toss that bit of motivational material out in front of his team. Alabama, meanwhile, is coming off a gutty road victory that could serve as a springboard of their own. They've got the moxie, the talent, and the leadership to earn a second straight crystal football, and this game could be the proving ground to the rest of the country that the BCS title is their's to lose. Last week's game against Arkansas once again showed that no matter how deep a hole you dig, you can't bury Greg McElroy. The man just doesn't lose. Why isn't he in everyone's Heisman conversation? What a novel concept - give the Most Outstanding Player award to a pure winner! At home, at night, in front of what will almost certainly be the most rabid crowd in recent Crimson Tide history, McElroy will not be beaten. This game could turn out to be like the Alabama-Auburn game last season - Florida will keep it close and may leap out to an early lead with some trickery, but McElroy will coolly take control of the game in the second half. And then Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson bury the Gators.
Alabama 26, Florida 17


3. Stanford at Oregon
Other than PSU-Iowa, I'm looking forward to this game more than any other on the weekly calendar. Both Stanford and Oregon are, in my opinion, vastly underrated. Oregon has at least gotten some notice, but Stanford is a legitimate top 5 team. They're brutally physical, coldly efficient on offense, and as disciplined as anyone. The 2 road games the Cardinal have played have resulted in blowouts, both against quality teams. They blanked UCLA, who just blasted Texas in Austin, and overran an unfortunate but solid Notre Dame team last week in South Bend. Autzen Stadium against this Oregon team is a different sort of test, but the Cardinal have the experience necessary to do it. Most expect this to be a pedal-to-the-metal track meet, with loads of points, but I think each offense will slow a bit, as they face the toughest defense they've yet seen. Don't be surprised if both teams have yet to break 20 once the 4th quarter starts. But the question this game hinges upon is this: can Oregon match Stanford's physicality? If they do, they'll win - the home field crowd will carry them through. If not, Stanford could overpower them. I'm going to side with Oregon - they'll be ready to be physical and they'll be able to get their speed guys off the edge and away from Stanford's strength and bulk one too many times for the Cardinal to keep up with. The Ducks win, but they'll have to suffer to get it done.
Oregon 27, Stanford 24


4. Texas vs. Oklahoma
I still don't know what to make of these two. Texas has sputtered all year, but who but the most ardent UCLA fan would have guessed that they'd get trounced by the visiting Bruins? Oklahoma crushed the best team it's played - Florida State - but narrowly escaped defeat against teams they by all rights should have put away with ease. The best I can surmise from each of these teams is that neither is quite up to the standards they're used to. As far as picking a winner - I could go with the Sooners based simply on the fact that I picked them to win it all this year. But I won't. The close games are going to catch up to them sometime, and it might be this weekend. Texas has dominated this rivalry recently, and I'm not so sure the loss to UCLA wasn't a fluke. Watching a random College Football Live episode earlier in the week convinced me that the Bruins are a different team than they were just 3 weeks ago, and the rest of the season may bear out the fact that the Longhorn loss to them wasn't actually a bad one. Texas does enough on defense to stay alive, Oklahoma makes a few mistakes that keep the Longhorns in it, and Garrett Gilbert shows his potential by providing Texas with a winner late. Or, I could be completely and utterly wrong.
Texas 31, Oklahoma 28


5. Virginia Tech at N.C. State
Don't look now, but N.C. State is atop the ACC. While they're a good team, that fact is one that's not likely to linger long. In fact, it probably stops for good this week. Virginia Tech has finally emerged from their Boise hangover, and behind their powerful defense are, to me, again the favorites to win the conference.
Virginia Tech 23, N.C. State 10


6. Miami (FL) at Clemson
Clemson showed a few weeks ago in Auburn that they're an ACC contender, but they're probably going to have to dig out of an 0-1 hole to go from contender to winner. Miami is very good, and won't be looking past the Tigers, even if Florida State is next. The Hurricanes are used to playing brutal early schedules, and they'll be ready come kickoff in Death Valley. In a close one, Jacory Harris leads Miami on a late drive for the win.
Miami (FL) 24, Clemson 23


7. Wisconsin at Michigan State
Wisconsin has yet to impress me. Aside from their 70-3 pasting of lower-level Austin Peay, their outings have been pretty lackluster. They narrowly escaped losing to Arizona State and couldn't fully shake both UNLV and San Jose State. They're primed to stumble in their first road game. Michigan State will play inspired football for their recovering coach, and the fans in East Lansing get to celebrate their second big win of the season.
Michigan State 34, Wisconsin 27


8. Washington at USC
Speaking of lackluster, lethargic teams, we come now to USC. The Trojans have been winning, sure, but they've done so in the least convincing manner possible. And they've done it with the odd style of choosing to go for 2 after most touchdowns (and missing quite often), leading to weird scores and some fire in the bellies of opposing coaches. I guess the lesson is that in any arena, Lane Kiffin will find a way to burn bridges and lose friends. Washington comes to town with the best player on the field (Jake Locker) and a coach (Steve Sarkesian) who's too familiar with USC's style, culture, stadium, and players than the Trojans would like him to be. Look for the upset here.
Washington 33, USC 26


9. Arizona State at Oregon State
Poor Oregon State - all they've been this year is the whipping boy for the non-BCS conference darlings. They're better than that, and they'll prove it by moving, as they always do, slowly into the Pac Ten race. Don't you worry, the Beavers - Rodgers brothers and all - will have their say before the conference race is over.
Oregon State 28, Arizona State 17


10. Tennessee at LSU
In spite of the fact that LSU is just not very good, they keep winning. Eventually things will even out, but not before they dispose of Tennessee - who, as their OT win over lowly UAB (or, as I like to call them, OOO-AB) shows, are also not very good this year.
LSU 21, Tennessee 7


11. Georgia at Colorado
Wow, have things gone bad at Georgia. I probably shouldn't mention the fact that I picked them to win the SEC. But I just did. Another loss and Mark Richt's job may, however unrightly, be in jeopardy. The question here is, will Georgia be able to get up for this game - a cross country trip against a hungry opponent. Colorado is barely even in mid-level SEC range, but the Bulldogs did just lose to Mississippi State. My guess is that Richt - a master motivator - will find a way to implore his team to dig deep and turn things around. He has to, or he'd better get his resume ready.
Georgia 35, Colorado 25


12. Notre Dame at Boston College
Boston College has been exposed as a second division ACC team, and Notre Dame could easily be 3-1 instead of 1-3. Any rivalry notwithstanding, this should be a no brainer. The only curiosity is that, with all the big games on the schedule, this one gets chosen as a primetime ABC offering. And Notre Dame wonders why everyone hates them!
Notre Dame 31, Boston College 17


13. Florida State at Virginia
Perhaps the toughest game of the week to pick. Mike London of Virginia is a very good coach, and this could easily be a trap game for Florida State, who goes to Miami next weekend. The Cavaliers nearly got USC on the road a few weeks ago, and I'm afraid it'll be another near miss for them here. Florida State just has more talent.
Florida State 24, Virginia 21


14. Navy at Air Force
In contrast to my earlier comment about Oklahoma's opponents, Air Force is a high quality team. Tim Jefferson and a bakers dozen of runningbacks come at opponents in waves, and in spite of the fact that Navy's defense has to practice against that sort of attack daily, they'll be unable to weather the onslaught. One thing is for sure - this will be the shortest game of the entire college football season. Can they finish in under 2:15?
Air Force 35, Navy 28


15. Texas A&M at Oklahoma State
We know virtually nothing about these two. Both are 3-0, both have won each of their 3 games on their home turf, both nearly honked games to Sun Belt foes, both have offenses who can score. When things look that even, it's best to just go with the home team and hope for the best.
Oklahoma State 38, Texas A&M 34

Week 4: The Mighty Mighty Pac Ten

I'm not one who typically buys into the whole "East Coast Bias" thing, but I believe when we're looking at the latest top 25 rankings, we're starting straight into a blatant case of it. The Pac Ten, arguably the strongest conference in the country (outside of the SEC, of course) has Oregon (AP #5, ESPN #6), Arizona (AP #14, ESPN #16), Stanford (AP #16, ESPN #17), USC (AP #20, ESPN N/A), and Oregon State (AP #24, ESPN NR) firmly in the polls. Five teams - not bad, right? Well, sort of. We'll disregard USC because they have no business being in the top 20 right now. But if Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona played east of the Mississippi - or better yet, played in the mighty SEC - there's almost no way they'd fall outside of the top 10. 


Oregon could easily displace Alabama at #1. Sure, the Ducks have put up a combined 141 points on New Mexico and Portland State, the functional equivalent of 8th grade teams, but 141 points in 2 games is impressive no matter who you play. And let's not forget the 48 they laid on Tennessee - on SEC turf. 


Stanford, in case you missed it, tossed up 68 on Wake Forest (a BCS conference team, though it should be mentioned that they surrendered 45 to Duke), to go along with their shutout on the road against UCLA.


Arizona just took out a very good and disciplined Iowa team who, as observed last year, is extremely difficult to beat in a close game. The Wildcats put together a gutsy drive late against a vaunted defense to do it. They've also cruised through their first two games, showing little weakness - especially offensively.


Oregon State is probably about where they should be, though they pushed a very good TCU team to the wire in a game played less than an hour's drive from TCU's campus.


But the Pac Ten's strength lies in its parity. Any one of the four teams mentioned above could win the conference, and 4 other teams are bowl-worthy, and probably would finish in the upper half of any league outside the SEC: Arizona State (an extra point away from OT at #11 Wisconsin), USC (hampered by the presence of Lane Kiffin but talented nonetheless), California (yes, they got pasted by Nevada but they might have the best back in the conference), and Washington (just forget about last week - Jake Locker is still capable of leading them in an upset of anybody). UCLA looks sickly and Washington State is abysmal, but the top 8 are quite good. Show me another top 8 that could match them.


All this means is that someone - maybe even some two - will be left out of a bowl game. The fact that each team plays 9 conference games means there is very little margin for error. Teams from every other league in the nation have the ability to schedule one more game against St. Mary's Academy of the Blind and rack up another win. By sheer schedule alone, someone will get the short end of the stick. To my embarrassment I picked Stanford to be that team in the preseason - I thought they'd lose this week at ND and they'd end up as the team on the short end of the conference in-fighting to come. Who's the most likely odd team out now? Washington. Two out of conference losses mean the Huskies must go 5-4 or better in conference to become bowl eligible. Not likely. I'd worry too if I were an Arizona State or Cal fan. Pac Ten games will be good entertainment in the weeks to come.


But now, on to the entertainment for this week...


1. Temple at Penn State
If you're new to this blog, I should let you know that when a Penn State game cracks the 15, they get the #1 spot. It's just the way it is. I'm an alum (class of '02!), and it's my blog. You might wonder, though, why this game actually does crack the 15. Most years I could throw up PSU 45, Temple 7 and go on my merry way. A matchup between these two just shouldn't be competitive. But this year, this game terrifies me. The Big East is probably kicking themselves for giving Temple the boot a few years back - this year's Owls might just be better than any team the conference has to offer. They're coming off good wins against Central Michigan, a perennial MAC power, and UConn, pegged by some as the Big East favorite. They have one of the best backs in the country in Bertrand Pierce. And they might be the best coached team out there, behind the up-and-coming Al Golden (another PSU alum). He'll have the already hungry Owls even hungrier, frothing for an upset of the big boys from the middle of the state. Penn State, meanwhile, has been shaky, especially in the turnover department. There's no denying the Nittany Lions have talent - apart from the 3 turnovers in Alabama territory, Penn State hung with the Tide. But turnovers are killing them. It's a product of youth, and it's bound to bite them again. I just hope it's not this week. Losing to Temple, even as solid as they are this year, would be embarrassing. I see this as a close game throughout, decided by a late field goal. Because Penn State, behind Collin Wagner, has the edge in the kicking department, and because no matter how hard I might try, I can't shake the home team bias with my Lions, Penn State gets the edge.
Penn State 24, Temple 21


2. Alabama at Arkansas
It's laughable to me that people are giving Arkansas a chance in this one. Alabama has really just been warming up this year, and even so they remain the best team in the country. The return of Mark Ingram just makes their offense even more unstoppable. What can teams do? Ingram and Richardson are absolute monsters. It's nearly impossible to tackle them with one man, so if a team wants to nullify the running game they're forced to put 8 in the box or run blitz. But that plays right into the hands of Greg McElroy, one of the coolest customers out there, a man who's not lost as a starting QB since eighth grade! Oh, and he has 2 of the best receivers in the SEC to pitch it to. Good night, Arkansas.
Alabama 38, Arkansas 23


3. South Carolina at Auburn
If Alabama-Arkansas is the SEC main course, this is a pretty tasty appetizer. I'm sold on South Carolina (which is dangerous, considering their recent pattern of fast starts and November implosions) - Stephen Garcia looks like he's matured and can lead well, Marcus Lattimore is the real deal and could be the freshman of the year, and the defense has enough pop to compensate for an off-day by the offense. Auburn, meanwhile, comes in banged up after a rough game with Clemson, and could come out slow in this one. And they've not been overly impressive either. Clemson worked them over pretty good - on both offense and defense - and South Carolina is the better of the two teams from the Palmetto State.
South Carolina 21, Auburn 20


4. Oregon State at Boise State
With all my blathering about the greatness of the Pac Ten, you'd think an upset pick was coming. Not so, my friend. Boise's getting their taste of the spotlight, with Gameday coming to the blue turf. There ain't no way the Broncos are losing this one, when the college football spotlight finally shines on southwest Idaho.
Boise State 41, Oregon State 24


5. Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh
To date, the Big East has one, count em, one victory over a BCS conference team. That one? West Virginia beating Maryland - a bottom feeder from the nearly equally pathetic ACC. The conference has 4 chances to get some respect back this weekend, starting Thursday night at Heinz Field. Pitt showed some moxie in coming back to tie Utah, then showed some cowardice by playing for OT, ending up with a loss. They're probably, at this point at least, the best team in the Big East, but that won't mean much against Miami. Jacory Harris bounces back from a tough outing at Ohio State to lead the Canes to a hard-fought win.
Miami (FL) 17, Pittsburgh 13


6. West Virginia at LSU
In Death Valley, at night, against a ferocious defense, there's no way the Mountaineers notch a win here. Even if Geno Smith suddenly looks like Major Harris.
LSU 31, West Virginia 21


7. Oklahoma at Cincinnati
Play this game last year and you might have something.
Oklahoma 37, Cincinnati 17


8. North Carolina at Rutgers
You have to hand it to Butch Davis, his Tar Heels have responded well to their adversity and come up with 2 pretty good performances so far. It's a shame they lost both, but not many full strength teams will take 1 of 2 against LSU and Georgia Tech. North Carolina has shown their depth and unity, and they'll finally be rewarded with a win.
North Carolina 23, Rutgers 16


9. Stanford at Notre Dame
It might be heartbreak again for the Fighting Irish, who've lost 2 close, epic games 2 weeks straight. But to put themselves in position for a third, they have to keep up with Andrew Luck and Stanford. Good luck. (rimshot)
Stanford 38, Notre Dame 27


10. Oregon at Arizona State
Arizona State played valiantly at Wisconsin and have nothing to be ashamed of after the close defeat. Oregon, however, is on a different plane. Even in Tempe, the Sun Devils will have a hard time slowing down the point-a-minute firepower of the Ducks. Speed, speed, and more speed runs Arizona State into the night.
Oregon 48, Arizona State 27


11. California at Arizona
The euphoria of last week's win lasts another week in Tuscon. California, lest we forget, gave up 51 in their last road game - at Nevada.
Arizona 30, California 17


12. Virginia Tech at Boston College
Has Virginia Tech righted the ship? Their fourth quarter outpouring of points against East Carolina would lead you to believe they have. But that was East Carolina, it was at home, and they did surrender 27 to the Pirates. This series has been close in their recent meetings, and Chestnut Hill is not an easy place to play. In the toughest call of the week, I'll go with the Eagles to prolong the Hokie spiral.
Boston College 20, Virginia Tech 17


13. Wake Forest at Florida State
As mentioned above, Wake Forest gave up 68 to Stanford and 48 to Duke. The Deacons can score, but can they stop anybody?
Florida State 42, Wake Forest 34


14. Nevada at BYU
Allow me to rant a bit here. It peeves me that everyone is looking at Nevada's results through the lens of Boise State's BCS implications. Stop it! Boise State has 10 games left on it's schedule - even if they are against WAC teams, there's one thing any coach will tell you to do - DON'T LOOK PAST ANYONE! Nevada hosts Boise State on November 26 - if Boise beats Nevada and is still undefeated after that, then you can weigh the merits of Nevada's schedule. Only then. Projecting a team to win a game 2 months from now, and speculating on how that team's games affect their overall merit, is ludicrous. Nevada may just beat Boise 2 months from now, and they may be the BCS buster we're all speculating about. Stop it with the crazy forward talk already.


All that said, I'm picking Nevada to lose.
BYU 31, Nevada 27


15. Georgia at Mississippi State
Dan Mullen has Mississippi State playing well, but good coaching can only take you so far. In the SEC, if you ain't got talent, you ain't got a chance. Not even Bear Bryant would win with a paucity of talent in today's SEC. The Bulldogs will press Georgia, but those Bulldogs are desperate. Georgia is too proud and hungry to go 0-3 in conference.
Georgia 21, Mississippi State 13

Week 3: Top Ten Testers

This weekend could be the most telling of the young season-to-date. A quick glance at the schedule shows 5 top ten teams, all national title contenders, facing challenging road tests. Boise State at Wyoming. Texas at Texas Tech. Nebraska at Washington. Iowa at Arizona. Florida at Tennessee. Some of those, in all honesty, don't appear to be more than speed bumps, but early season road games - the first away from home action for several of those teams - could reveal which of these teams are for real and which are posers. Winning on the road against a quality opponent is tough. And home teams are winning at a rather impressive clip through the first 2 weeks - by my count 77% of the games involving Division 1-A teams have gone to the home team. Sure, many of those feature teams on the level of the pre-Bobby Boucher South Central Louisiana State Mud Dogs being paraded in for the slaughter, but there are home-team upsets as well. Kansas upending Georgia Tech last Saturday is my case in point. Expect more of the same this weekend. It's almost a guarantee that one of those 5 contenders will fall; I'm going to go out on a limb and say 2 of them will have their knees taken out from under them. Which ones? Keep reading...


Beyond those 5, there are some very evenly matched games on the schedule, and more quality games than I can fit in the weekly fifteen. This weekend could easily match week one as far as on-field excitement. A few other top ten teams face dodgy home games (Air Force @ Oklahoma, Baylor @ TCU), an increase in conference games brings some entertaining options (Georgia Tech @ North Carolina, Arkansas @ Georgia), BCS conference foes lock up in entertaining intersectional matchups (Clemson @ Auburn, Arizona State @ Wisconsin, Maryland @ West Virginia), and humbled powers face difficult bounce back games (East Carolina @ Virginia Tech, BYU @ Florida State). The full slate of quality makes up for the lack of a marquee matchup. It should be fun stuff. And I'll be hard pressed to go 12-3 again.


1. Iowa at Arizona
Very quietly, Arizona has nudged into the bottom end of the top 25, after whipping two overmatched foes in Toledo and the Citadel. The fact that the Wildcats overwhelmed Toledo on the road shouldn't be overlooked - this was a West Coast team heading east, which often results in a lethargic performance. Not so for Arizona. Nick Foles and the offense has looked sharp, and Iowa's defense will have their hands full. Don't forget that Arizona nearly knocked off the Hawkeyes last year (then again, so did everyone on their schedule). The kickoff of this one is 10:30 ET, which could have Iowa's rhythm off - they could easily peak in adrenaline level earlier in the day and struggle maintaining intensity. Against an Arizona team that appears to be one of the most underrated in the country right now, that could be deadly. This is upset #1 - these teams are not that far apart in talent and quality.
Arizona 27, Iowa 21


2. Texas at Texas Tech
Upset #2. But I had to talk myself into this one. It just seems like something is missing at Texas right now, especially on offense. The Longhorns have gotten off to very slow starts in each game they've played so far, and this time they're walking into a maelstrom. Sleepwalk into this one, and Texas Tech's crowd and energy could overwhelm them. Lubbock has become a tough place to play, and the Red Raiders view the Longhorns as their chief rival, a sentiment not shared by the Longhorns. Texas Tech will be amped up for the primetime showdown, and Tommy Tuberville will show that the Red Raiders will continue on just fine without Mike Leach.
Texas Tech 34, Texas 30


3. Boise State at Wyoming
Don't laugh when I say this, but Wyoming could pose a real challenge to Boise State. Austyn Carta-Samuels has a passer rating above 160 so far, and that includes a game at Texas. He could give the Bronco defense headaches. And after their thrilling win over Virginia Tech, Boise has a huge target on its back. They'd better be ready. History shows that they will be. Kellen Moore and the gang are clutch.
Boise State 41, Wyoming 21


4. Florida at Tennessee
The second half beatdown the Vols suffered at the hands of Oregon last week is likely to linger long in their minds. It's hard to expect them to have much left to give Florida. Oregon took their best shot and chucked it right back in their faces. And Florida may have awakened in the last 2 quarters last weekend.
Florida 35, Tennessee 17


5. Nebraska at Washington
Probably the most likely upset pick of the weekend, but I'm not buying it. Jake Locker is a great player, to be sure, but Washington's weapons outside of Locker are pretty weak. The Cornhusker defense may bend to Locker, but Washington needs another threat to keep them off balance. 
Nebraska 31, Washington 24


6. Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Last week was an aberration. Georgia Tech was uncharacteristically sloppy at Kansas, and the Yellow Jackets know it. Expect a tighter performance, even against a very strong defense. North Carolina, even with some players still out, has one of the better defenses in the country, but they're geared to stopping pro sets and spreads, not the flexbone. The Yellow Jackets will find room to run and bounce back against a Tar Heel team still in turmoil.
Georgia Tech 28, North Carolina 18


7. Clemson at Auburn
ACC on the road at SEC usually spells L-O-S-S. No reason to expect any different here. Clemson may sneak up on a few people this year, but Auburn won't be one of them. Cam Newton is coming along nicely in Gus Malzahn's offense, and he'll roll up some significant yardage.
Auburn 42, Clemson 27


8. Notre Dame at Michigan State
The road team has had an abnormal success rate in this series, and I think it continues this weekend. Michigan State hasn't done anything impressive yet, and Notre Dame, in spite of the heartbreaking loss to Michigan, is a different and stronger team under Brian Kelly.
Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 19


9. Arizona State at Wisconsin
I pegged Arizona State as a sleeper before the season, but when push is coming to shove I can't pull the trigger and pick an upset here. Wisconsin may be unspectacular, as last weekend's snoozer 27-14 win over lowly San Jose State will attest, but they get the job done. Big Ten discipline and muscle wins the day here, even though the Sun Devils may have the best player (and best name) on the field in LB Vontaze Burfict.
Wisconsin 20, Arizona State 13


10. Maryland at West Virginia
Maryland is 2-0 and looking to save Ralph Friedgen's job. They come in hungry and ready to prove a point, and West Virginia hasn't at all looked worthy of their #21 ranking. Recipe for an upset? Not so fast my friend - I'm yanking out a sharpened #2 pencil and going Lee Corso on this one. The Terrapins gave up a gazillion rushing yards to Navy and managed to win with grit and quite a bit of luck, as Navy's offense ran into an unseen force field protecting the Maryland end zone. Don't think that tape has been lost in the West Virginia football offices. The Mountaineers have the weapons to exploit Maryland's run defense and should run Noel Devine and Geno Smith at them all afternoon. Catching lightning in a bottle isn't likely to happen twice - West Virginia, unlike Navy, will both move the ball and score.
West Virginia 38, Maryland 24


11. Arkansas at Georgia
Georgia, even without A.J. Green, is too good to lose 2 conference games in a row, right? Arkansas comes in with some buzz surrounding them, but I think they're this year's Mississippi - expectations became too high in the off-season. Ryan Mallett will move the ball, but winning on the road in the SEC requires defense and tenacity, and I'm not sure Arkansas has them. Georgia bounces back into the SEC East race.
Georgia 41, Arkansas 35


12. East Carolina at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were victims of a murderers row of circumstances last week, which ultimately led to their shocking loss. First, they lost a heartbreaker to Boise State, a game they put a ton of effort and fire into. Then they had a short week to prepare (they finished their game in DC near midnight on Monday and kicked off against JMU at noon Saturday), and played a high-quality 1-AA opponent who'd easily and naturally be overlooked. The party most to blame for the egg they laid last Saturday is whoever made Virginia Tech schedule. Why, after agreeing to play Boise State in a super-hyped, much anticipated showdown on Labor Day night, would they not cancel or move the game with James Madison, a team they ought to have respected more? I expect Virginia Tech to come out mad, and seek to prove a point against East Carolina - a team who's beaten them before and they're not likely to overlook.
Virginia Tech 30, East Carolina 10


13. Connecticut at Temple
Temple may have the absolute worst home-field advantage in the country, playing before 12,000 people in a cavernous NFL palace. So using the home-team winning formula from above would be stupid. It's a good thing I think Temple is a really solid group, led by future major program coach Al Golden. They won't catch Connecticut off-guard, but they might just beat them straight up.
Temple 19, Connecticut 16


14. Houston at UCLA
If this were in Houston, it wouldn't make the list. UCLA has looked awful, and could be swallowed whole by Case Keenum. At least the Bruins won't be shut out - Houston's defense is a mere placeholder, giving the offense some time to rest before launching another aerial assault.
Houston 40, UCLA 24


15. Kansas at Southern Mississippi
The Jayhawks show that last week's win wasn't the fluke; the opening 6-3 dud to North Dakota State was.
Kansas 21, Southern Mississippi 16

Week 2: Back to the Future

From the early 80's to the mid 90's the college football landscape was dominated by a few high-profile national programs. Eight of these lock horns this weekend in what could be the greatest weekend slate of major intersectional games in college football history. Not even New Year's Day could rival this platter of college football goodies. Penn State-Alabama. Florida State-Oklahoma. Miami-Ohio State. Michigan-Notre Dame. From 1982 to 1993, these eight won 10 of the 12 national championships awarded (only Ohio State and Michigan missed out). During this stretch it was difficult to find a top 10 poll that featured less than half. And for three consecutive weeks in 1993 (September 20 to October 4), all eight crowded the top 10. 

Each of these traditional powers have had their rough patches - some longer than others (coughNotreDamecough), some currently in progress (I'm looking at you Michigan), but they're all, at least by appearances, on their way back toward the top. Which is what makes this weekend's games - even Notre Dame and Michigan - so appetizing. And if last week was any indication, the hype will be surpassed by the action.

Last week's drama was more proof that college football is the best sport America has to offer. An also-ran turning into an unlikely giant killer. An undermanned, backs-to-the-wall squad very nearly turning expectation on its ear and erasing a 20-point 4th quarter deficit, only to fall in agony on the last play. A top-10 showdown living up to its billing - ruining the title hopes of one and fanning another's into a brilliant flame. In another post on another day I'll defend the BCS system and show why last weekend would have been ruined by a playoff. There's a reason why college football is so compelling, and the drama inherent in each game would be erased by the reality that the loser still has a chance. You want a playoff? You already have it. Win every game you play, you get to play for it all, Tecmo Bowl style.

And now to the next wave of the drama...

1. Penn State at Alabama

We Nittany Lions have been waiting 3 years for this game, since it was announced and put on the schedule way back in yesteryear. Only we didn't count on the Tide being the defending national champs. In all honesty, I give Penn State less than a 10% chance of winning in Tuscaloosa. The most likely outcome features Alabama's young but talented defense stuffing the PSU run, frazzling true freshman Rob Bolden into a few quick turnovers and a trip to the bench, and the experienced Alabama offense rolling up 500 yards. Only in the wildest fantasy of my mind do I see Penn State winning. And even that is fuzzy and contains no discernible game plan that produces a victory. It has to include loads of Crimson Tide miscues and a QB who a year ago was starting his senior year of high school playing out of his mind. I can't imagine that happening, no matter how hard I try. You can't pick a more difficult scenario for a true freshman. But I will guarantee this: by 7pm Saturday I'll have talked myself into believing and have concocted a game plan and scenario which results in a sure Penn State win. I'm just not there yet.

Alabama 31, Penn State 13

2. Miami (FL) at Ohio State

Jim Tressel has kept the reins on Terrelle Pryor for two full seasons, save for last year's Rose Bowl. This game is the one where I think they finally come fully off. Pryor has had ample time to mature and learn the Buckeye playbook (which can't possibly be that complex - how many variations of "Off-Tackle Left" can one have?). It's time for Tressel to unleash his terrifying weapon. Enough with the R&D, let the fighter jet out of the hangar! Miami's defense is young, fast, and athletic, and Terrelle Pryor may be the only Ohio State offensive player capable of matching their speed and intensity. And not only can he match it, he might just blow the doors off it. If you thought Tyrod Taylor had some dazzling speed and moves, just wait until you see Pryor with his full array of ability on display. He'll get some help from Ohio State's nasty D, but he'll carry his offense on Saturday. He'll probably have to. In the closest game of the 4 giants, Terrelle Pryor becomes the nation's best player.

Ohio State 17, Miami (FL) 16

3. Florida State at Oklahoma

I'm willing to give the Sooners a pass on last week's ugly win. Utah State might become the surprise team of the year. And there's a good chance Oklahoma left plenty in the playbook with the Seminoles knocking on the door. It would be easy to take Florida State's opening result, compare it with Oklahoma's, and peg this as an upset. But if prior seasons are any indicator, you can't base week 2's analysis on week one's result. A team goes through more change during the week between games one and two than any other. Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray and the gang will be ready to roll, and I don't think the Florida State defense will be able to contain them. The potential that this offense has is off the charts. Oklahoma's D will come to play too, smarting from giving up 3 TD's to Utah State. Christian Ponder is good, but he can be mistake prone, and Brent Venables will have some blitzes and looks ready to throw at him. Oklahoma wins going away.

Oklahoma 38, Florida State 20

4. Michigan at Notre Dame

After each had an impressive first week, this game suddenly looks fairly attractive, if it weren't for the fact that the Wolverines and Fighting Irish are the combatants. Ick. It won't hearken fans back to the titanic tilts of years gone by, but it might springboard the winner back to the national scene. Michigan is the team most likely to have a drop off, as they've been wildly inconsistent under Rich Rodriguez. Don't be surprised if Denard Robinson trips on his shoelaces and bumbles the football around the field in ungainly embarrassment. On the other side, I know it's only been one game, but I'm pretty convinced that Brian Kelly will finally be the one who takes Notre Dame back to the top. He's won resoundingly everywhere he's gone, and he and his staff somehow coaxed the apparently dismal Irish defense to a stalwart performance last Saturday. And we all know what the man can do on offense. The Irish won't make the BCS this year, but they'll likely become a top 25 fixture after this weekend.

Notre Dame 31, Michigan 27

As for the rest of the weekend, there aren't any other glamour games, but a few interesting ones. And very little upset potential, it would appear. That scares me. You know they'll happen, but this week above any it seems that they're very hard to locate. I'll do some quicker picks with the rest - I've taken long enough with the big four.

5. Georgia at South Carolina

Gamecocks impressed on opening night and get a few extra days to prepare for Georgia. It'll pay off, as the home crowd pushes them to a victory. Georgia is prone to lose an early conference game, but they'll be back.

South Carolina 27, Georgia 21

6. Auburn at Mississippi State

This is my one upset special of the week. Auburn allowed 26 points from Arkansas State, and Mississippi State seems to be headed in the right direction under Dan Mullen - he may have found some offense to go with a decent defense. And this is the Thursday night game, which always seems to produce an upset.

Mississippi State 26, Auburn 23

7. Georgia Tech at Kansas

I know I said that a lot can change from week one to week two, but Kansas lost 6-3 to North Dakota State. That can't bode well with the triple option behemoth of Georgia Tech looming.

Georgia Tech 34, Kansas 24

8. South Florida at Florida

Could be a testy one for the Gators. South Florida gets especially amped for in-state games, and Florida is coming off of their worst performance since Urban Meyer was hired. I can't imagine they duplicate it, and I don't think Meyer will let them suffer the ignominy of losing to a school he and the entire populations of Gainesville, Tallahassee, and Miami believe deserves no part of joining the Sunshine State's power triumvirate. That may be the only thing they all agree on. Along with sweet tea.

Florida 38, South Florida 14

9. Oregon at Tennessee

How could I have forgotten this one in the week's headliners? Oh, that's right - Tennessee is in the worst slump in school history, and Oregon hasn't yet cracked the top tier (it rests with Virginia Tech, Clemson, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and all the others who think they're top-level programs, but have a few big wins and a championship standing in their way). Easy pick here, Oregon's offense won't score 72 against an SEC defense, but they'll roll up plenty of yards and points.

Oregon 35, Tennessee 21

10. Stanford at UCLA

For thoughts on this game, see my comments about UCLA from last week. I still stand by them.

Stanford 30, UCLA 24

11. Virginia at USC

This might be worth staying up for. USC looked mighty vulnerable last week, and other than his brash antics and frat boy demeanor, Lane Kiffin has done nothing to garner attention for himself as a coach. Virginia is picked by most to miss a bowl, but they've got a coach in Mike London who will outfox Kiffin. USC wins on sheer talent alone, but it's close.

USC 31, Virginia 24

12. BYU at Air Force

After a tough win, BYU has a letdown against the relentless (and somewhat ironic) ground game of Air Force.

Air Force 28, BYU 20

13. Iowa State at Iowa

By my own account I shouldn't be picking this game. It's not a good matchup and should be a layup - the type of games I don't want to pick. But it's a rivalry, so conceivably anything can happen, and we really are reaching the dregs of your typical September week. Mismatches abound. And I'm not picking Syracuse-Washington.

Iowa 33, Iowa State 10

14. UTEP at Houston

Scary game for the C-USA favorite. UTEP is tabbed by some as a threat to topple the Cougars, and Houston's style of play will allow the Miners to score. Too bad for UTEP that it'll also allow plenty of points for themselves.

Houston 55, UTEP 35

15. Colorado at California

I have nothing productive or noteworthy to say about this game.

California 21, Colorado 14

Week 1: The Journey Begins

I love the eclectic mix of games that dot the landscape during the first week of the season. You have the occasional matchup of major conference powers (LSU - UNC), minnows without even the faintest hope being offered up to a hungry swarm of sharks (North Texas - Clemson, LA-Lafayette - Georgia), Division-1AA sheep being led to the slaughterhouse of 90,000+ seat palaces, for the promise of a cool few hundred thousand bones (Youngstown State - PSU, Samford - FSU), mini-rivalries that can't make the cut of a season-closing tilt (Missou - Illinois, Kentucky - Louisville), intersectional matchups between BCS conference also-rans that wouldn't even garner the slightest bit of attention if it were mid-October (Wash. St. - Oklahoma St., UCLA - Kansas St.), and - this year only, it seems - non-BCS powers mixing it up with some big boys (Boise - VT, Oregon St. - TCU, Utah - Pitt). These are actually the most enticing games on the slate, and fortunately for the viewing public have been spaced neatly in prime-time on alternating evenings. Think of them as the appetizer (Pitt at Utah), a hearty soup (Oregon St. - TCU), and a main course of a prime 16oz New York Strip, paired with a perfectly prepared baked potato and finely seasoned green beans (Boise State - Virginia Tech), all central elements of a 5 day college football feast. Let's get it going already, I'm hungry!


And now, the picks. Remember - everyone's undefeated tonight, some are just more undefeated than others.


1. Boise State vs. Virginia Tech
Might as well start with the main course. The last game of the sprawling opening weekend is the best one, and shouldn't disappoint. Both teams have tons to lose in this one, which could go one of two ways: play conservative, close to the vest, not to lose; or to go for broke, turn to the last page of the playbook, play loose and risky. Judging by the traditional styles of these two, I'd bank on the latter. By now we all know that this is basically Boise State's entire season - lose and you can kiss the BCS goodbye. But you could argue that Virginia Tech has more to lose - a loss here would carry with it some embarrassment, as they'd be the bully BCS program who couldn't knock the Broncos into their proverbial place, and the Hokies have a decent national title shot as well. Lose Monday night and you might as well throw that in the trash too - a lot would have to happen for a one-loss ACC team to slip into Glendale. As far as what will happen on the field, I like Virginia Tech for one primary reason: they've had all summer to prepare for this game. Boise State is essentially the same team as last year, and the Broncos won't have the luxury of sneaking up unnoticed. The Hokies know the Boise will try to throw trick plays at them; they'll be prepared, even if the play is something no one has seen in the history of football (a distinct possibility). And if you give a top 20 defense, like Virginia Tech's, ample time to prepare, they'll find a weakness and a way to stop you. By now they must know every pore on Kellen Moore's face by heart. If there's a chink in his armor, they'll find it. Expect a close, entertaining game, but look for Boise's dream to die a difficult death in week one. And don't be surprised if they are the ones caught off guard by some hijinks.
Virginia Tech 27, Boise State 24


2. Oregon State vs. TCU
If you read this blog last week, you're fully aware I'm picking TCU. They're a complete team this year - plenty of offense to go with their characteristic defensive ferocity. Oregon State has been a massive overachiever under Mike Riley, but they're prone to slow starts. That doesn't bode well when they open in what's essentially a road game against a top 10 opponent.
TCU 31, Oregon State 16


3. Pittsburgh at Utah
Pitt will be a very good team this year, but they're schedule may do them in and keep them out of the BCS. This may not look like too difficult a game, but Utah hasn't lost at home since 2007. They've still got a solid power running game, and sophomore QB Jordan Wynn has a solid year behind him. The Utes will be able to keep a good Pitt defense off balance, which, combined with some big home field advantage, could be enough, no matter how many yards Dion Lewis rattles off. Don't forget that Pitt's also starting a green QB, on the road, against a team that should be ranked.
Utah 23, Pittsburgh 17


4. LSU vs. North Carolina
After trashing Jordan Jefferson and the LSU offense last week, you'd think I'd be staying away from picking them like Lane Kiffin stays away from small roadhouse bars outside of Knoxville. But you'd be wrong. The turmoil at North Carolina has to be a distraction, and the suspension of Marvin Austin is huge. Plus, the types of teams that will give LSU fits this year aren't just teams with formidable defenses, they'll be the teams who pair those defensive units with a good QB and players who can stretch the field. LSU's defense is pretty stout, and I realized this week that I'd underestimated it a bit. The Tar Heels do not fit that criteria. T.J. Yates is unproven, and apart from WR Greg Little, they don't have anyone who'll scare the LSU defense. Low scoring and rugged will be the theme, with LSU winning on timely turnovers.
LSU 16, North Carolina 7


5. Purdue at Notre Dame
The Brian Kelly era begins, and if you'd believe some of the hype beaming from South Bend, you'd think they were a BCS shoo-in. Make no mistake about it, Kelly is a proven winner, but he's not a miracle worker. Notre Dame has some major holes to fill on defense, and Purdue has the offensive tools and system to give them fits. It'll be a shootout, but I don't think the Irish can get the stops they need to prevail.
Purdue 41, Notre Dame 34


6. Southern Mississippi at South Carolina
All the talk surrounding Spurrier's focus and his choice of using 2 QB's is overblown. He's done it before, and won by it before, and I think he still feels that he has something to prove at South Carolina. If not, he'd have left several years ago. I think he feels his work's not done until he leads them to a division crown. Probably won't happen this year, but the talent level is rising, and the Gamecocks will surprise some folks this year. And is it me, or does South Carolina play on the opening Thursday every year? Did I miss something? Are the contractually obligated to by some obscure ESPN byline?
South Carolina 30, Southern Mississippi 20


7. Connecticut at Michigan
Interesting matchup, and could make for a great little Saturday afternoon game. Connecticut is the better team, but RichRod is no stranger to Randy Edsall's style. And though the Big House has rolled out the red carpet for visitors recently, it's still huge and visually intimidating. Michigan, as much as it pains me to say it, will be better this year, and should be able to clip UConn.
Michigan 23, Connecticut 20


8. Illinois vs. Missouri
Well, this used to be a tantalizing early season rivalry. Then Ron Zook happened. Missouri may roll up half a hundred - Blaine Gabbert might be the most underrated QB in America.
Missouri 45, Illinois 17


9. Kentucky at Louisville
Another regional rivalry. I'm sure the state of Kentucky is all a-twitter over it, but that's mostly because there can't be much else to get excited about down there. Is it breeding season? Maybe time to bottle the next batch of whiskey? No? Well, let's turn on UK and UofL then. It ain't basketball, but we can pretend!
Kentucky 34, Louisville 24


10. UCLA at Kansas State
We're knee deep in the boredom of week one's only remotely attractive BCS conference vs. BCS conference affairs. It's hard to believe that ABC's 3:30 lineup consists of this, UK-UL, and UConn-Michigan. Talk about reaching. Most people expect UCLA to be pretty competitive, but I'm not sold on Rick Neuheisel. If I remember correctly, Colorado under his watch was barely more than average. Not sure where the "soon will be equal with USC" talk is coming from. With Bill Snyder at K-State, you do get a proven commodity. Look no further than last year, when he had the Wildcats in range of a Big 12 North title in November. He's got a little more talent this year, and his craftiness will lead them back to a bowl game, and certainly past UCLA.
Kansas State 21, UCLA 16


11. Washington at BYU
I'll comment on BYU's move to independence later, but for now let's just leave things with the fact that the Cougars have lost way too much to replace in one year. Jake Locker can almost beat the Cougars by himself.
Washington 37, BYU 20


12. Colorado vs. Colorado State
Dan Hawkins may not make season's end. His farewell tour begins here, in Denver, against a steadily improving and hungry Colorado State.
Colorado State 28, Colorado 27


13. Cincinnati at Fresno State
Fresno nearly nipped Cincy in Nippert last year (did you catch that pun? Now that, my friends, is writing!). One would expect them to mount another strong challenge this time around, especially at home. But Fresno hasn't been the giant killers they once were lately, and I think they actually play better in big games on the road. Something about the "anyone, anywhere" mantra, while being effective at tightening a team's focus in a hostile environment, could have the opposite affect at home. They get lazy and complacent. And Cincinnati still has plenty left in the tank this time around.
Cincinnati 41, Fresno State 27


14. SMU at Texas Tech
A markedly different era begins in Lubbock, and I'm not sure fans will know how to handle it. Wait, we've run the ball twice in a row? We're controlling the clock? This is boring! But Tommy Tuberville will eventually win them over, and this game looks like a good debut for him. Marginally challenging opponent with a somewhat marketable name (at least in Texas) and a "name" head coach, an opponent they pretty easily eclipse in talent in most places on the field. Chalk up win one in the Tuberville, or "slow football" era.
Texas Tech 35, SMU 21


15. Navy vs. Maryland
The other Monday game, played about an hour up the road from the Boise State-Virginia Tech epicenter. Let's face it, Navy is just better, and should run all over Maryland.
Navy 38, Maryland 26


And since the offseason headline train hasn't stopped this week ("Masoli Won't Play!" "BYU Looks to Become the Notre Dame of Mormondom!" "Ohio State and Michigan Won't Play in the Season Finale! Wait, Yes They Will!"), I have 2 comments on the proceedings (leaving comment about the Masoli situation for another time, or possibly never).


On BYU: Their decision to go independent seems strange from a football standpoint. It seems to be a lateral move. They'll certainly not be given the preferential treatment that the BCS lavishes on the large, religious independent school in the Midwest. They'll have to earn their spot at the table like any other non-BCS automatic qualifying program. In fact, in that vein you could argue that they've lessened their chances - the Mountain West, through the addition of Boise, Fresno, and Nevada, stands at least an outside chance of passing the Big East in the formula that determines which 6 conferences get the automatic BCS bids. Yes, such a thing exists - it's one of those add-ons the BCS committee likes to tack on to keep the people somewhat appeased. The rhetoric goes that every conference does have a shot, they just have to earn it through long-term success on the field. As of yet the power structure hasn't been breached, but if any non-AQ (I hate that term, but I have to use it out of necessity) conference can break through it's the Mountain West. So BYU's departure essentially takes them out of that mix. What offsets that loss is the slight gain they'll get in recruiting. Playing more nationally means more exposure, which means more recruits. So it's a wash.


But, as Woody Paige hinted at on Around the Horn tonight - this is decidedly not a football decision. It's an evangelism decision. BYU launched their own TV network, one that they (read: the Mormon Church) control, and the football program will become a lure for the cable networks to sign it up. Meaning Mormonism's exposure in mainstream America increases. This is both a clever and slightly frightening proposition.


On the Big Ten: I really have no comment on the whole divisional structuring, or the massive unrest caused by splitting Ohio State and Michigan. I see no reason why that's a big deal - they're still guaranteed to play every year. I like the fact that the stodgy Big Ten has been willing to challenge tradition, it's good for them.


What I do want to comment on is the production of Penn State and Nebraska as the designated "crossover rivals." Brilliant. It may not seem like any sort of rivalry exists - geographically they're as far apart as you can currently get in the Big Ten, and they've only met 13 times in their history, just twice in the past 25 years. Not exactly a foundation to build on, right?


Wrong. Every Penn State fan still seethes at the 1994 season, when Nebraska was awarded the national title over an also unbeaten, unblemished Penn State team. One that, I might add, had perhaps the greatest offense in college football history. Sure, it wasn't Nebraska's fault, it was the system's. But we needed a scapegoat for our frustration, and Nebraska was it. I was there the night we Nittany Lions finally got our shot at the vile Cornhuskers, early in the 2002 season at Beaver Stadium. Penn State clobbered Nebraska 40-7, and it was one of the loudest nights the stadium has ever experienced. We were calling for blood, for the Lions to pour it on. It was deafening even after the game was long but put away. Eight long years of frustration were released in that 40-7 tally. That sort of passion and noise doesn't just come because it's a night game or it's a big name opponent; there was something much more attached to it. The campus ministry I was involved in put out a video the following week that depicted students eschewing common greetings with one another in favor of the phrase "40-7", coupled with a sly, satisfied grin. We knew it was more than just another win.


To be sure, Nebraska fans hold some ire of their own as well - at least those born before 1975. In 1982, in what is still considered the greatest game ever played at Beaver Stadium, Penn State won on a last second drive that included a highly controversial sideline ruling - replays would later show the Penn State receiver clearly out of bounds on a crucial catch during the game winning drive. Ultimately, that game decided the national championship - Penn State beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl while Nebraska sat a home watching, knowing that a win that day would have had them facing the Bulldogs. Across Nebraska, T-shirts were printed that pictured a football field with a small bump along the sideline at the 5 yard line, with a headline that read something like, "Map of Beaver Stadium." So yes, there is history there. And it should become a fantastic series.


Next week: Remembering the 80's through the lens of Week 2, 2010 season.