Each of these traditional powers have had their rough patches - some longer than others (coughNotreDamecough), some currently in progress (I'm looking at you Michigan), but they're all, at least by appearances, on their way back toward the top. Which is what makes this weekend's games - even Notre Dame and Michigan - so appetizing. And if last week was any indication, the hype will be surpassed by the action.
Last week's drama was more proof that college football is the best sport America has to offer. An also-ran turning into an unlikely giant killer. An undermanned, backs-to-the-wall squad very nearly turning expectation on its ear and erasing a 20-point 4th quarter deficit, only to fall in agony on the last play. A top-10 showdown living up to its billing - ruining the title hopes of one and fanning another's into a brilliant flame. In another post on another day I'll defend the BCS system and show why last weekend would have been ruined by a playoff. There's a reason why college football is so compelling, and the drama inherent in each game would be erased by the reality that the loser still has a chance. You want a playoff? You already have it. Win every game you play, you get to play for it all, Tecmo Bowl style.
And now to the next wave of the drama...
1. Penn State at Alabama
We Nittany Lions have been waiting 3 years for this game, since it was announced and put on the schedule way back in yesteryear. Only we didn't count on the Tide being the defending national champs. In all honesty, I give Penn State less than a 10% chance of winning in Tuscaloosa. The most likely outcome features Alabama's young but talented defense stuffing the PSU run, frazzling true freshman Rob Bolden into a few quick turnovers and a trip to the bench, and the experienced Alabama offense rolling up 500 yards. Only in the wildest fantasy of my mind do I see Penn State winning. And even that is fuzzy and contains no discernible game plan that produces a victory. It has to include loads of Crimson Tide miscues and a QB who a year ago was starting his senior year of high school playing out of his mind. I can't imagine that happening, no matter how hard I try. You can't pick a more difficult scenario for a true freshman. But I will guarantee this: by 7pm Saturday I'll have talked myself into believing and have concocted a game plan and scenario which results in a sure Penn State win. I'm just not there yet.
Alabama 31, Penn State 13
2. Miami (FL) at Ohio State
Jim Tressel has kept the reins on Terrelle Pryor for two full seasons, save for last year's Rose Bowl. This game is the one where I think they finally come fully off. Pryor has had ample time to mature and learn the Buckeye playbook (which can't possibly be that complex - how many variations of "Off-Tackle Left" can one have?). It's time for Tressel to unleash his terrifying weapon. Enough with the R&D, let the fighter jet out of the hangar! Miami's defense is young, fast, and athletic, and Terrelle Pryor may be the only Ohio State offensive player capable of matching their speed and intensity. And not only can he match it, he might just blow the doors off it. If you thought Tyrod Taylor had some dazzling speed and moves, just wait until you see Pryor with his full array of ability on display. He'll get some help from Ohio State's nasty D, but he'll carry his offense on Saturday. He'll probably have to. In the closest game of the 4 giants, Terrelle Pryor becomes the nation's best player.
Ohio State 17, Miami (FL) 16
3. Florida State at Oklahoma
I'm willing to give the Sooners a pass on last week's ugly win. Utah State might become the surprise team of the year. And there's a good chance Oklahoma left plenty in the playbook with the Seminoles knocking on the door. It would be easy to take Florida State's opening result, compare it with Oklahoma's, and peg this as an upset. But if prior seasons are any indicator, you can't base week 2's analysis on week one's result. A team goes through more change during the week between games one and two than any other. Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray and the gang will be ready to roll, and I don't think the Florida State defense will be able to contain them. The potential that this offense has is off the charts. Oklahoma's D will come to play too, smarting from giving up 3 TD's to Utah State. Christian Ponder is good, but he can be mistake prone, and Brent Venables will have some blitzes and looks ready to throw at him. Oklahoma wins going away.
Oklahoma 38, Florida State 20
4. Michigan at Notre Dame
After each had an impressive first week, this game suddenly looks fairly attractive, if it weren't for the fact that the Wolverines and Fighting Irish are the combatants. Ick. It won't hearken fans back to the titanic tilts of years gone by, but it might springboard the winner back to the national scene. Michigan is the team most likely to have a drop off, as they've been wildly inconsistent under Rich Rodriguez. Don't be surprised if Denard Robinson trips on his shoelaces and bumbles the football around the field in ungainly embarrassment. On the other side, I know it's only been one game, but I'm pretty convinced that Brian Kelly will finally be the one who takes Notre Dame back to the top. He's won resoundingly everywhere he's gone, and he and his staff somehow coaxed the apparently dismal Irish defense to a stalwart performance last Saturday. And we all know what the man can do on offense. The Irish won't make the BCS this year, but they'll likely become a top 25 fixture after this weekend.
Notre Dame 31, Michigan 27
As for the rest of the weekend, there aren't any other glamour games, but a few interesting ones. And very little upset potential, it would appear. That scares me. You know they'll happen, but this week above any it seems that they're very hard to locate. I'll do some quicker picks with the rest - I've taken long enough with the big four.
5. Georgia at South Carolina
Gamecocks impressed on opening night and get a few extra days to prepare for Georgia. It'll pay off, as the home crowd pushes them to a victory. Georgia is prone to lose an early conference game, but they'll be back.
South Carolina 27, Georgia 21
6. Auburn at Mississippi State
This is my one upset special of the week. Auburn allowed 26 points from Arkansas State, and Mississippi State seems to be headed in the right direction under Dan Mullen - he may have found some offense to go with a decent defense. And this is the Thursday night game, which always seems to produce an upset.
Mississippi State 26, Auburn 23
7. Georgia Tech at Kansas
I know I said that a lot can change from week one to week two, but Kansas lost 6-3 to North Dakota State. That can't bode well with the triple option behemoth of Georgia Tech looming.
Georgia Tech 34, Kansas 24
8. South Florida at Florida
Could be a testy one for the Gators. South Florida gets especially amped for in-state games, and Florida is coming off of their worst performance since Urban Meyer was hired. I can't imagine they duplicate it, and I don't think Meyer will let them suffer the ignominy of losing to a school he and the entire populations of Gainesville, Tallahassee, and Miami believe deserves no part of joining the Sunshine State's power triumvirate. That may be the only thing they all agree on. Along with sweet tea.
Florida 38, South Florida 14
9. Oregon at Tennessee
How could I have forgotten this one in the week's headliners? Oh, that's right - Tennessee is in the worst slump in school history, and Oregon hasn't yet cracked the top tier (it rests with Virginia Tech, Clemson, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and all the others who think they're top-level programs, but have a few big wins and a championship standing in their way). Easy pick here, Oregon's offense won't score 72 against an SEC defense, but they'll roll up plenty of yards and points.
Oregon 35, Tennessee 21
10. Stanford at UCLA
For thoughts on this game, see my comments about UCLA from last week. I still stand by them.
Stanford 30, UCLA 24
11. Virginia at USC
This might be worth staying up for. USC looked mighty vulnerable last week, and other than his brash antics and frat boy demeanor, Lane Kiffin has done nothing to garner attention for himself as a coach. Virginia is picked by most to miss a bowl, but they've got a coach in Mike London who will outfox Kiffin. USC wins on sheer talent alone, but it's close.
USC 31, Virginia 24
12. BYU at Air Force
After a tough win, BYU has a letdown against the relentless (and somewhat ironic) ground game of Air Force.
Air Force 28, BYU 20
13. Iowa State at Iowa
By my own account I shouldn't be picking this game. It's not a good matchup and should be a layup - the type of games I don't want to pick. But it's a rivalry, so conceivably anything can happen, and we really are reaching the dregs of your typical September week. Mismatches abound. And I'm not picking Syracuse-Washington.
Iowa 33, Iowa State 10
14. UTEP at Houston
Scary game for the C-USA favorite. UTEP is tabbed by some as a threat to topple the Cougars, and Houston's style of play will allow the Miners to score. Too bad for UTEP that it'll also allow plenty of points for themselves.
Houston 55, UTEP 35
15. Colorado at California
I have nothing productive or noteworthy to say about this game.
California 21, Colorado 14
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