Week 3: Top Ten Testers

This weekend could be the most telling of the young season-to-date. A quick glance at the schedule shows 5 top ten teams, all national title contenders, facing challenging road tests. Boise State at Wyoming. Texas at Texas Tech. Nebraska at Washington. Iowa at Arizona. Florida at Tennessee. Some of those, in all honesty, don't appear to be more than speed bumps, but early season road games - the first away from home action for several of those teams - could reveal which of these teams are for real and which are posers. Winning on the road against a quality opponent is tough. And home teams are winning at a rather impressive clip through the first 2 weeks - by my count 77% of the games involving Division 1-A teams have gone to the home team. Sure, many of those feature teams on the level of the pre-Bobby Boucher South Central Louisiana State Mud Dogs being paraded in for the slaughter, but there are home-team upsets as well. Kansas upending Georgia Tech last Saturday is my case in point. Expect more of the same this weekend. It's almost a guarantee that one of those 5 contenders will fall; I'm going to go out on a limb and say 2 of them will have their knees taken out from under them. Which ones? Keep reading...


Beyond those 5, there are some very evenly matched games on the schedule, and more quality games than I can fit in the weekly fifteen. This weekend could easily match week one as far as on-field excitement. A few other top ten teams face dodgy home games (Air Force @ Oklahoma, Baylor @ TCU), an increase in conference games brings some entertaining options (Georgia Tech @ North Carolina, Arkansas @ Georgia), BCS conference foes lock up in entertaining intersectional matchups (Clemson @ Auburn, Arizona State @ Wisconsin, Maryland @ West Virginia), and humbled powers face difficult bounce back games (East Carolina @ Virginia Tech, BYU @ Florida State). The full slate of quality makes up for the lack of a marquee matchup. It should be fun stuff. And I'll be hard pressed to go 12-3 again.


1. Iowa at Arizona
Very quietly, Arizona has nudged into the bottom end of the top 25, after whipping two overmatched foes in Toledo and the Citadel. The fact that the Wildcats overwhelmed Toledo on the road shouldn't be overlooked - this was a West Coast team heading east, which often results in a lethargic performance. Not so for Arizona. Nick Foles and the offense has looked sharp, and Iowa's defense will have their hands full. Don't forget that Arizona nearly knocked off the Hawkeyes last year (then again, so did everyone on their schedule). The kickoff of this one is 10:30 ET, which could have Iowa's rhythm off - they could easily peak in adrenaline level earlier in the day and struggle maintaining intensity. Against an Arizona team that appears to be one of the most underrated in the country right now, that could be deadly. This is upset #1 - these teams are not that far apart in talent and quality.
Arizona 27, Iowa 21


2. Texas at Texas Tech
Upset #2. But I had to talk myself into this one. It just seems like something is missing at Texas right now, especially on offense. The Longhorns have gotten off to very slow starts in each game they've played so far, and this time they're walking into a maelstrom. Sleepwalk into this one, and Texas Tech's crowd and energy could overwhelm them. Lubbock has become a tough place to play, and the Red Raiders view the Longhorns as their chief rival, a sentiment not shared by the Longhorns. Texas Tech will be amped up for the primetime showdown, and Tommy Tuberville will show that the Red Raiders will continue on just fine without Mike Leach.
Texas Tech 34, Texas 30


3. Boise State at Wyoming
Don't laugh when I say this, but Wyoming could pose a real challenge to Boise State. Austyn Carta-Samuels has a passer rating above 160 so far, and that includes a game at Texas. He could give the Bronco defense headaches. And after their thrilling win over Virginia Tech, Boise has a huge target on its back. They'd better be ready. History shows that they will be. Kellen Moore and the gang are clutch.
Boise State 41, Wyoming 21


4. Florida at Tennessee
The second half beatdown the Vols suffered at the hands of Oregon last week is likely to linger long in their minds. It's hard to expect them to have much left to give Florida. Oregon took their best shot and chucked it right back in their faces. And Florida may have awakened in the last 2 quarters last weekend.
Florida 35, Tennessee 17


5. Nebraska at Washington
Probably the most likely upset pick of the weekend, but I'm not buying it. Jake Locker is a great player, to be sure, but Washington's weapons outside of Locker are pretty weak. The Cornhusker defense may bend to Locker, but Washington needs another threat to keep them off balance. 
Nebraska 31, Washington 24


6. Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Last week was an aberration. Georgia Tech was uncharacteristically sloppy at Kansas, and the Yellow Jackets know it. Expect a tighter performance, even against a very strong defense. North Carolina, even with some players still out, has one of the better defenses in the country, but they're geared to stopping pro sets and spreads, not the flexbone. The Yellow Jackets will find room to run and bounce back against a Tar Heel team still in turmoil.
Georgia Tech 28, North Carolina 18


7. Clemson at Auburn
ACC on the road at SEC usually spells L-O-S-S. No reason to expect any different here. Clemson may sneak up on a few people this year, but Auburn won't be one of them. Cam Newton is coming along nicely in Gus Malzahn's offense, and he'll roll up some significant yardage.
Auburn 42, Clemson 27


8. Notre Dame at Michigan State
The road team has had an abnormal success rate in this series, and I think it continues this weekend. Michigan State hasn't done anything impressive yet, and Notre Dame, in spite of the heartbreaking loss to Michigan, is a different and stronger team under Brian Kelly.
Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 19


9. Arizona State at Wisconsin
I pegged Arizona State as a sleeper before the season, but when push is coming to shove I can't pull the trigger and pick an upset here. Wisconsin may be unspectacular, as last weekend's snoozer 27-14 win over lowly San Jose State will attest, but they get the job done. Big Ten discipline and muscle wins the day here, even though the Sun Devils may have the best player (and best name) on the field in LB Vontaze Burfict.
Wisconsin 20, Arizona State 13


10. Maryland at West Virginia
Maryland is 2-0 and looking to save Ralph Friedgen's job. They come in hungry and ready to prove a point, and West Virginia hasn't at all looked worthy of their #21 ranking. Recipe for an upset? Not so fast my friend - I'm yanking out a sharpened #2 pencil and going Lee Corso on this one. The Terrapins gave up a gazillion rushing yards to Navy and managed to win with grit and quite a bit of luck, as Navy's offense ran into an unseen force field protecting the Maryland end zone. Don't think that tape has been lost in the West Virginia football offices. The Mountaineers have the weapons to exploit Maryland's run defense and should run Noel Devine and Geno Smith at them all afternoon. Catching lightning in a bottle isn't likely to happen twice - West Virginia, unlike Navy, will both move the ball and score.
West Virginia 38, Maryland 24


11. Arkansas at Georgia
Georgia, even without A.J. Green, is too good to lose 2 conference games in a row, right? Arkansas comes in with some buzz surrounding them, but I think they're this year's Mississippi - expectations became too high in the off-season. Ryan Mallett will move the ball, but winning on the road in the SEC requires defense and tenacity, and I'm not sure Arkansas has them. Georgia bounces back into the SEC East race.
Georgia 41, Arkansas 35


12. East Carolina at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were victims of a murderers row of circumstances last week, which ultimately led to their shocking loss. First, they lost a heartbreaker to Boise State, a game they put a ton of effort and fire into. Then they had a short week to prepare (they finished their game in DC near midnight on Monday and kicked off against JMU at noon Saturday), and played a high-quality 1-AA opponent who'd easily and naturally be overlooked. The party most to blame for the egg they laid last Saturday is whoever made Virginia Tech schedule. Why, after agreeing to play Boise State in a super-hyped, much anticipated showdown on Labor Day night, would they not cancel or move the game with James Madison, a team they ought to have respected more? I expect Virginia Tech to come out mad, and seek to prove a point against East Carolina - a team who's beaten them before and they're not likely to overlook.
Virginia Tech 30, East Carolina 10


13. Connecticut at Temple
Temple may have the absolute worst home-field advantage in the country, playing before 12,000 people in a cavernous NFL palace. So using the home-team winning formula from above would be stupid. It's a good thing I think Temple is a really solid group, led by future major program coach Al Golden. They won't catch Connecticut off-guard, but they might just beat them straight up.
Temple 19, Connecticut 16


14. Houston at UCLA
If this were in Houston, it wouldn't make the list. UCLA has looked awful, and could be swallowed whole by Case Keenum. At least the Bruins won't be shut out - Houston's defense is a mere placeholder, giving the offense some time to rest before launching another aerial assault.
Houston 40, UCLA 24


15. Kansas at Southern Mississippi
The Jayhawks show that last week's win wasn't the fluke; the opening 6-3 dud to North Dakota State was.
Kansas 21, Southern Mississippi 16