I'm not one who typically buys into the whole "East Coast Bias" thing, but I believe when we're looking at the latest top 25 rankings, we're starting straight into a blatant case of it. The Pac Ten, arguably the strongest conference in the country (outside of the SEC, of course) has Oregon (AP #5, ESPN #6), Arizona (AP #14, ESPN #16), Stanford (AP #16, ESPN #17), USC (AP #20, ESPN N/A), and Oregon State (AP #24, ESPN NR) firmly in the polls. Five teams - not bad, right? Well, sort of. We'll disregard USC because they have no business being in the top 20 right now. But if Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona played east of the Mississippi - or better yet, played in the mighty SEC - there's almost no way they'd fall outside of the top 10.
Oregon could easily displace Alabama at #1. Sure, the Ducks have put up a combined 141 points on New Mexico and Portland State, the functional equivalent of 8th grade teams, but 141 points in 2 games is impressive no matter who you play. And let's not forget the 48 they laid on Tennessee - on SEC turf.
Stanford, in case you missed it, tossed up 68 on Wake Forest (a BCS conference team, though it should be mentioned that they surrendered 45 to Duke), to go along with their shutout on the road against UCLA.
Arizona just took out a very good and disciplined Iowa team who, as observed last year, is extremely difficult to beat in a close game. The Wildcats put together a gutsy drive late against a vaunted defense to do it. They've also cruised through their first two games, showing little weakness - especially offensively.
Oregon State is probably about where they should be, though they pushed a very good TCU team to the wire in a game played less than an hour's drive from TCU's campus.
But the Pac Ten's strength lies in its parity. Any one of the four teams mentioned above could win the conference, and 4 other teams are bowl-worthy, and probably would finish in the upper half of any league outside the SEC: Arizona State (an extra point away from OT at #11 Wisconsin), USC (hampered by the presence of Lane Kiffin but talented nonetheless), California (yes, they got pasted by Nevada but they might have the best back in the conference), and Washington (just forget about last week - Jake Locker is still capable of leading them in an upset of anybody). UCLA looks sickly and Washington State is abysmal, but the top 8 are quite good. Show me another top 8 that could match them.
All this means is that someone - maybe even some two - will be left out of a bowl game. The fact that each team plays 9 conference games means there is very little margin for error. Teams from every other league in the nation have the ability to schedule one more game against St. Mary's Academy of the Blind and rack up another win. By sheer schedule alone, someone will get the short end of the stick. To my embarrassment I picked Stanford to be that team in the preseason - I thought they'd lose this week at ND and they'd end up as the team on the short end of the conference in-fighting to come. Who's the most likely odd team out now? Washington. Two out of conference losses mean the Huskies must go 5-4 or better in conference to become bowl eligible. Not likely. I'd worry too if I were an Arizona State or Cal fan. Pac Ten games will be good entertainment in the weeks to come.
But now, on to the entertainment for this week...
1. Temple at Penn State
If you're new to this blog, I should let you know that when a Penn State game cracks the 15, they get the #1 spot. It's just the way it is. I'm an alum (class of '02!), and it's my blog. You might wonder, though, why this game actually does crack the 15. Most years I could throw up PSU 45, Temple 7 and go on my merry way. A matchup between these two just shouldn't be competitive. But this year, this game terrifies me. The Big East is probably kicking themselves for giving Temple the boot a few years back - this year's Owls might just be better than any team the conference has to offer. They're coming off good wins against Central Michigan, a perennial MAC power, and UConn, pegged by some as the Big East favorite. They have one of the best backs in the country in Bertrand Pierce. And they might be the best coached team out there, behind the up-and-coming Al Golden (another PSU alum). He'll have the already hungry Owls even hungrier, frothing for an upset of the big boys from the middle of the state. Penn State, meanwhile, has been shaky, especially in the turnover department. There's no denying the Nittany Lions have talent - apart from the 3 turnovers in Alabama territory, Penn State hung with the Tide. But turnovers are killing them. It's a product of youth, and it's bound to bite them again. I just hope it's not this week. Losing to Temple, even as solid as they are this year, would be embarrassing. I see this as a close game throughout, decided by a late field goal. Because Penn State, behind Collin Wagner, has the edge in the kicking department, and because no matter how hard I might try, I can't shake the home team bias with my Lions, Penn State gets the edge.
Penn State 24, Temple 21
2. Alabama at Arkansas
It's laughable to me that people are giving Arkansas a chance in this one. Alabama has really just been warming up this year, and even so they remain the best team in the country. The return of Mark Ingram just makes their offense even more unstoppable. What can teams do? Ingram and Richardson are absolute monsters. It's nearly impossible to tackle them with one man, so if a team wants to nullify the running game they're forced to put 8 in the box or run blitz. But that plays right into the hands of Greg McElroy, one of the coolest customers out there, a man who's not lost as a starting QB since eighth grade! Oh, and he has 2 of the best receivers in the SEC to pitch it to. Good night, Arkansas.
Alabama 38, Arkansas 23
3. South Carolina at Auburn
If Alabama-Arkansas is the SEC main course, this is a pretty tasty appetizer. I'm sold on South Carolina (which is dangerous, considering their recent pattern of fast starts and November implosions) - Stephen Garcia looks like he's matured and can lead well, Marcus Lattimore is the real deal and could be the freshman of the year, and the defense has enough pop to compensate for an off-day by the offense. Auburn, meanwhile, comes in banged up after a rough game with Clemson, and could come out slow in this one. And they've not been overly impressive either. Clemson worked them over pretty good - on both offense and defense - and South Carolina is the better of the two teams from the Palmetto State.
South Carolina 21, Auburn 20
4. Oregon State at Boise State
With all my blathering about the greatness of the Pac Ten, you'd think an upset pick was coming. Not so, my friend. Boise's getting their taste of the spotlight, with Gameday coming to the blue turf. There ain't no way the Broncos are losing this one, when the college football spotlight finally shines on southwest Idaho.
Boise State 41, Oregon State 24
5. Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh
To date, the Big East has one, count em, one victory over a BCS conference team. That one? West Virginia beating Maryland - a bottom feeder from the nearly equally pathetic ACC. The conference has 4 chances to get some respect back this weekend, starting Thursday night at Heinz Field. Pitt showed some moxie in coming back to tie Utah, then showed some cowardice by playing for OT, ending up with a loss. They're probably, at this point at least, the best team in the Big East, but that won't mean much against Miami. Jacory Harris bounces back from a tough outing at Ohio State to lead the Canes to a hard-fought win.
Miami (FL) 17, Pittsburgh 13
6. West Virginia at LSU
In Death Valley, at night, against a ferocious defense, there's no way the Mountaineers notch a win here. Even if Geno Smith suddenly looks like Major Harris.
LSU 31, West Virginia 21
7. Oklahoma at Cincinnati
Play this game last year and you might have something.
Oklahoma 37, Cincinnati 17
8. North Carolina at Rutgers
You have to hand it to Butch Davis, his Tar Heels have responded well to their adversity and come up with 2 pretty good performances so far. It's a shame they lost both, but not many full strength teams will take 1 of 2 against LSU and Georgia Tech. North Carolina has shown their depth and unity, and they'll finally be rewarded with a win.
North Carolina 23, Rutgers 16
9. Stanford at Notre Dame
It might be heartbreak again for the Fighting Irish, who've lost 2 close, epic games 2 weeks straight. But to put themselves in position for a third, they have to keep up with Andrew Luck and Stanford. Good luck. (rimshot)
Stanford 38, Notre Dame 27
10. Oregon at Arizona State
Arizona State played valiantly at Wisconsin and have nothing to be ashamed of after the close defeat. Oregon, however, is on a different plane. Even in Tempe, the Sun Devils will have a hard time slowing down the point-a-minute firepower of the Ducks. Speed, speed, and more speed runs Arizona State into the night.
Oregon 48, Arizona State 27
11. California at Arizona
The euphoria of last week's win lasts another week in Tuscon. California, lest we forget, gave up 51 in their last road game - at Nevada.
Arizona 30, California 17
12. Virginia Tech at Boston College
Has Virginia Tech righted the ship? Their fourth quarter outpouring of points against East Carolina would lead you to believe they have. But that was East Carolina, it was at home, and they did surrender 27 to the Pirates. This series has been close in their recent meetings, and Chestnut Hill is not an easy place to play. In the toughest call of the week, I'll go with the Eagles to prolong the Hokie spiral.
Boston College 20, Virginia Tech 17
13. Wake Forest at Florida State
As mentioned above, Wake Forest gave up 68 to Stanford and 48 to Duke. The Deacons can score, but can they stop anybody?
Florida State 42, Wake Forest 34
14. Nevada at BYU
Allow me to rant a bit here. It peeves me that everyone is looking at Nevada's results through the lens of Boise State's BCS implications. Stop it! Boise State has 10 games left on it's schedule - even if they are against WAC teams, there's one thing any coach will tell you to do - DON'T LOOK PAST ANYONE! Nevada hosts Boise State on November 26 - if Boise beats Nevada and is still undefeated after that, then you can weigh the merits of Nevada's schedule. Only then. Projecting a team to win a game 2 months from now, and speculating on how that team's games affect their overall merit, is ludicrous. Nevada may just beat Boise 2 months from now, and they may be the BCS buster we're all speculating about. Stop it with the crazy forward talk already.
All that said, I'm picking Nevada to lose.
BYU 31, Nevada 27
15. Georgia at Mississippi State
Dan Mullen has Mississippi State playing well, but good coaching can only take you so far. In the SEC, if you ain't got talent, you ain't got a chance. Not even Bear Bryant would win with a paucity of talent in today's SEC. The Bulldogs will press Georgia, but those Bulldogs are desperate. Georgia is too proud and hungry to go 0-3 in conference.
Georgia 21, Mississippi State 13
No comments:
Post a Comment