I love the eclectic mix of games that dot the landscape during the first week of the season. You have the occasional matchup of major conference powers (LSU - UNC), minnows without even the faintest hope being offered up to a hungry swarm of sharks (North Texas - Clemson, LA-Lafayette - Georgia), Division-1AA sheep being led to the slaughterhouse of 90,000+ seat palaces, for the promise of a cool few hundred thousand bones (Youngstown State - PSU, Samford - FSU), mini-rivalries that can't make the cut of a season-closing tilt (Missou - Illinois, Kentucky - Louisville), intersectional matchups between BCS conference also-rans that wouldn't even garner the slightest bit of attention if it were mid-October (Wash. St. - Oklahoma St., UCLA - Kansas St.), and - this year only, it seems - non-BCS powers mixing it up with some big boys (Boise - VT, Oregon St. - TCU, Utah - Pitt). These are actually the most enticing games on the slate, and fortunately for the viewing public have been spaced neatly in prime-time on alternating evenings. Think of them as the appetizer (Pitt at Utah), a hearty soup (Oregon St. - TCU), and a main course of a prime 16oz New York Strip, paired with a perfectly prepared baked potato and finely seasoned green beans (Boise State - Virginia Tech), all central elements of a 5 day college football feast. Let's get it going already, I'm hungry!
And now, the picks. Remember - everyone's undefeated tonight, some are just more undefeated than others.
1. Boise State vs. Virginia Tech
Might as well start with the main course. The last game of the sprawling opening weekend is the best one, and shouldn't disappoint. Both teams have tons to lose in this one, which could go one of two ways: play conservative, close to the vest, not to lose; or to go for broke, turn to the last page of the playbook, play loose and risky. Judging by the traditional styles of these two, I'd bank on the latter. By now we all know that this is basically Boise State's entire season - lose and you can kiss the BCS goodbye. But you could argue that Virginia Tech has more to lose - a loss here would carry with it some embarrassment, as they'd be the bully BCS program who couldn't knock the Broncos into their proverbial place, and the Hokies have a decent national title shot as well. Lose Monday night and you might as well throw that in the trash too - a lot would have to happen for a one-loss ACC team to slip into Glendale. As far as what will happen on the field, I like Virginia Tech for one primary reason: they've had all summer to prepare for this game. Boise State is essentially the same team as last year, and the Broncos won't have the luxury of sneaking up unnoticed. The Hokies know the Boise will try to throw trick plays at them; they'll be prepared, even if the play is something no one has seen in the history of football (a distinct possibility). And if you give a top 20 defense, like Virginia Tech's, ample time to prepare, they'll find a weakness and a way to stop you. By now they must know every pore on Kellen Moore's face by heart. If there's a chink in his armor, they'll find it. Expect a close, entertaining game, but look for Boise's dream to die a difficult death in week one. And don't be surprised if they are the ones caught off guard by some hijinks.
Virginia Tech 27, Boise State 24
2. Oregon State vs. TCU
If you read this blog last week, you're fully aware I'm picking TCU. They're a complete team this year - plenty of offense to go with their characteristic defensive ferocity. Oregon State has been a massive overachiever under Mike Riley, but they're prone to slow starts. That doesn't bode well when they open in what's essentially a road game against a top 10 opponent.
TCU 31, Oregon State 16
3. Pittsburgh at Utah
Pitt will be a very good team this year, but they're schedule may do them in and keep them out of the BCS. This may not look like too difficult a game, but Utah hasn't lost at home since 2007. They've still got a solid power running game, and sophomore QB Jordan Wynn has a solid year behind him. The Utes will be able to keep a good Pitt defense off balance, which, combined with some big home field advantage, could be enough, no matter how many yards Dion Lewis rattles off. Don't forget that Pitt's also starting a green QB, on the road, against a team that should be ranked.
Utah 23, Pittsburgh 17
4. LSU vs. North Carolina
After trashing Jordan Jefferson and the LSU offense last week, you'd think I'd be staying away from picking them like Lane Kiffin stays away from small roadhouse bars outside of Knoxville. But you'd be wrong. The turmoil at North Carolina has to be a distraction, and the suspension of Marvin Austin is huge. Plus, the types of teams that will give LSU fits this year aren't just teams with formidable defenses, they'll be the teams who pair those defensive units with a good QB and players who can stretch the field. LSU's defense is pretty stout, and I realized this week that I'd underestimated it a bit. The Tar Heels do not fit that criteria. T.J. Yates is unproven, and apart from WR Greg Little, they don't have anyone who'll scare the LSU defense. Low scoring and rugged will be the theme, with LSU winning on timely turnovers.
LSU 16, North Carolina 7
5. Purdue at Notre Dame
The Brian Kelly era begins, and if you'd believe some of the hype beaming from South Bend, you'd think they were a BCS shoo-in. Make no mistake about it, Kelly is a proven winner, but he's not a miracle worker. Notre Dame has some major holes to fill on defense, and Purdue has the offensive tools and system to give them fits. It'll be a shootout, but I don't think the Irish can get the stops they need to prevail.
Purdue 41, Notre Dame 34
6. Southern Mississippi at South Carolina
All the talk surrounding Spurrier's focus and his choice of using 2 QB's is overblown. He's done it before, and won by it before, and I think he still feels that he has something to prove at South Carolina. If not, he'd have left several years ago. I think he feels his work's not done until he leads them to a division crown. Probably won't happen this year, but the talent level is rising, and the Gamecocks will surprise some folks this year. And is it me, or does South Carolina play on the opening Thursday every year? Did I miss something? Are the contractually obligated to by some obscure ESPN byline?
South Carolina 30, Southern Mississippi 20
7. Connecticut at Michigan
Interesting matchup, and could make for a great little Saturday afternoon game. Connecticut is the better team, but RichRod is no stranger to Randy Edsall's style. And though the Big House has rolled out the red carpet for visitors recently, it's still huge and visually intimidating. Michigan, as much as it pains me to say it, will be better this year, and should be able to clip UConn.
Michigan 23, Connecticut 20
8. Illinois vs. Missouri
Well, this used to be a tantalizing early season rivalry. Then Ron Zook happened. Missouri may roll up half a hundred - Blaine Gabbert might be the most underrated QB in America.
Missouri 45, Illinois 17
9. Kentucky at Louisville
Another regional rivalry. I'm sure the state of Kentucky is all a-twitter over it, but that's mostly because there can't be much else to get excited about down there. Is it breeding season? Maybe time to bottle the next batch of whiskey? No? Well, let's turn on UK and UofL then. It ain't basketball, but we can pretend!
Kentucky 34, Louisville 24
10. UCLA at Kansas State
We're knee deep in the boredom of week one's only remotely attractive BCS conference vs. BCS conference affairs. It's hard to believe that ABC's 3:30 lineup consists of this, UK-UL, and UConn-Michigan. Talk about reaching. Most people expect UCLA to be pretty competitive, but I'm not sold on Rick Neuheisel. If I remember correctly, Colorado under his watch was barely more than average. Not sure where the "soon will be equal with USC" talk is coming from. With Bill Snyder at K-State, you do get a proven commodity. Look no further than last year, when he had the Wildcats in range of a Big 12 North title in November. He's got a little more talent this year, and his craftiness will lead them back to a bowl game, and certainly past UCLA.
Kansas State 21, UCLA 16
11. Washington at BYU
I'll comment on BYU's move to independence later, but for now let's just leave things with the fact that the Cougars have lost way too much to replace in one year. Jake Locker can almost beat the Cougars by himself.
Washington 37, BYU 20
12. Colorado vs. Colorado State
Dan Hawkins may not make season's end. His farewell tour begins here, in Denver, against a steadily improving and hungry Colorado State.
Colorado State 28, Colorado 27
13. Cincinnati at Fresno State
Fresno nearly nipped Cincy in Nippert last year (did you catch that pun? Now that, my friends, is writing!). One would expect them to mount another strong challenge this time around, especially at home. But Fresno hasn't been the giant killers they once were lately, and I think they actually play better in big games on the road. Something about the "anyone, anywhere" mantra, while being effective at tightening a team's focus in a hostile environment, could have the opposite affect at home. They get lazy and complacent. And Cincinnati still has plenty left in the tank this time around.
Cincinnati 41, Fresno State 27
14. SMU at Texas Tech
A markedly different era begins in Lubbock, and I'm not sure fans will know how to handle it. Wait, we've run the ball twice in a row? We're controlling the clock? This is boring! But Tommy Tuberville will eventually win them over, and this game looks like a good debut for him. Marginally challenging opponent with a somewhat marketable name (at least in Texas) and a "name" head coach, an opponent they pretty easily eclipse in talent in most places on the field. Chalk up win one in the Tuberville, or "slow football" era.
Texas Tech 35, SMU 21
15. Navy vs. Maryland
The other Monday game, played about an hour up the road from the Boise State-Virginia Tech epicenter. Let's face it, Navy is just better, and should run all over Maryland.
Navy 38, Maryland 26
And since the offseason headline train hasn't stopped this week ("Masoli Won't Play!" "BYU Looks to Become the Notre Dame of Mormondom!" "Ohio State and Michigan Won't Play in the Season Finale! Wait, Yes They Will!"), I have 2 comments on the proceedings (leaving comment about the Masoli situation for another time, or possibly never).
On BYU: Their decision to go independent seems strange from a football standpoint. It seems to be a lateral move. They'll certainly not be given the preferential treatment that the BCS lavishes on the large, religious independent school in the Midwest. They'll have to earn their spot at the table like any other non-BCS automatic qualifying program. In fact, in that vein you could argue that they've lessened their chances - the Mountain West, through the addition of Boise, Fresno, and Nevada, stands at least an outside chance of passing the Big East in the formula that determines which 6 conferences get the automatic BCS bids. Yes, such a thing exists - it's one of those add-ons the BCS committee likes to tack on to keep the people somewhat appeased. The rhetoric goes that every conference does have a shot, they just have to earn it through long-term success on the field. As of yet the power structure hasn't been breached, but if any non-AQ (I hate that term, but I have to use it out of necessity) conference can break through it's the Mountain West. So BYU's departure essentially takes them out of that mix. What offsets that loss is the slight gain they'll get in recruiting. Playing more nationally means more exposure, which means more recruits. So it's a wash.
But, as Woody Paige hinted at on Around the Horn tonight - this is decidedly not a football decision. It's an evangelism decision. BYU launched their own TV network, one that they (read: the Mormon Church) control, and the football program will become a lure for the cable networks to sign it up. Meaning Mormonism's exposure in mainstream America increases. This is both a clever and slightly frightening proposition.
On the Big Ten: I really have no comment on the whole divisional structuring, or the massive unrest caused by splitting Ohio State and Michigan. I see no reason why that's a big deal - they're still guaranteed to play every year. I like the fact that the stodgy Big Ten has been willing to challenge tradition, it's good for them.
What I do want to comment on is the production of Penn State and Nebraska as the designated "crossover rivals." Brilliant. It may not seem like any sort of rivalry exists - geographically they're as far apart as you can currently get in the Big Ten, and they've only met 13 times in their history, just twice in the past 25 years. Not exactly a foundation to build on, right?
Wrong. Every Penn State fan still seethes at the 1994 season, when Nebraska was awarded the national title over an also unbeaten, unblemished Penn State team. One that, I might add, had perhaps the greatest offense in college football history. Sure, it wasn't Nebraska's fault, it was the system's. But we needed a scapegoat for our frustration, and Nebraska was it. I was there the night we Nittany Lions finally got our shot at the vile Cornhuskers, early in the 2002 season at Beaver Stadium. Penn State clobbered Nebraska 40-7, and it was one of the loudest nights the stadium has ever experienced. We were calling for blood, for the Lions to pour it on. It was deafening even after the game was long but put away. Eight long years of frustration were released in that 40-7 tally. That sort of passion and noise doesn't just come because it's a night game or it's a big name opponent; there was something much more attached to it. The campus ministry I was involved in put out a video the following week that depicted students eschewing common greetings with one another in favor of the phrase "40-7", coupled with a sly, satisfied grin. We knew it was more than just another win.
To be sure, Nebraska fans hold some ire of their own as well - at least those born before 1975. In 1982, in what is still considered the greatest game ever played at Beaver Stadium, Penn State won on a last second drive that included a highly controversial sideline ruling - replays would later show the Penn State receiver clearly out of bounds on a crucial catch during the game winning drive. Ultimately, that game decided the national championship - Penn State beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl while Nebraska sat a home watching, knowing that a win that day would have had them facing the Bulldogs. Across Nebraska, T-shirts were printed that pictured a football field with a small bump along the sideline at the 5 yard line, with a headline that read something like, "Map of Beaver Stadium." So yes, there is history there. And it should become a fantastic series.
Next week: Remembering the 80's through the lens of Week 2, 2010 season.
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