Week 6: Why Upsets Happen

Just when we thought this season wouldn't mimic last year's parade of upsets, we get last Saturday.  College football seems a particularly upset-prone sport, which got me thinking - why?  How does Ole Miss waltz into the Swamp and post 31 against Florida, who had allowed only 19 in their first 3 games combined?  How does an Oregon State team that was massacred at Penn State just 3 weeks ago take out seemingly unstoppable USC?  In the short time I've been able to think through it, I've come up with the following 7 reasons why upsets have become so common.

1. Consistency: We covered this last week - sometimes the team you got last week, you don't get this week.  That's just the way it works in this game.

2. Youth: It's easy to forget that these are 18-22 year old kids playing a complex and difficult team sport.  A lot of these guys are impressionable, and the overexposure of college football by the media gets to their heads: when you're told over and over again just how good you are, and how bad the next opponent is, you believe it, no matter what your coach says.  Coach gets in these guys ears little more than 20 hours a week, but SportsCenter is always on.  Maybe this is a big reason East Carolina has dropped their last 2.  Also with youth comes that inconsistency I've been harping on (in physical and mental preparation, game management, controlling emotions, etc.).  

3. Momentum: Football more than almost any other sport is a game of momentum.  If you've got it, you're golden.  Momentum changes hands several times a game, and if you manage to get the snowball rolling down the hill, all the talent in the world might not matter.  The Oregon State-USC game is a perfect example.  The Beavers got ahold of all the momentum, with the home crowd behind them, rattling Mark Sanchez, and USC couldn't make up the deficit.

4. Home Field Advantage: It makes a huge difference.  Even though this past weekend was against the norm, most upsets happen at the home field of the lower-rated team.

5. Luck: Sometimes a game swings on one or two, sometimes fluky plays.  The football is a weird shape and it can bounce in some strange ways.

6. Big plays: A game often boils down to one or two key plays.  There's a reason Pontiac gives money away for a "Game Changing Performance" each week, even beyond just wanting to make a forced connection between their cars and football games.  Mississippi blocks an extra point.  West Virginia misses a short field goal against Colorado 2 weeks ago.  Et cetera, et cetera.

7. Scholarships: This might be the biggest reason of all.  In the years before the current scholarship limitations, big programs would load up on all the best available talent, regardless of whether they'd play or not.  Coaches would hide talented players on their bench just to keep them away from their rivals.  So smaller programs (or non-"name" programs) would struggle to keep up.  But now, in the era of the 85 scholarship limit, the talent gap has shrunk.  And sports has gotten to the point where talent is developed and cultivated from the youth level more efficiently, so there is more to go around.  Teams now are much more evenly matched than ever before, and it'll only become more and more like that.  Going undefeated is really becoming a feat.

In other news, I nailed the precise score in 3 games last week, an achievement more likely attributed to luck than skill, but still noteworthy nonetheless.  My Nittany Lions backed me up with their 38-24 win, and I matched the Ohio State-Minnesota score too.  I also got the score for the UNC-Miami contest, but my flip of the coin landed for the wrong team (literally).  Even with the plethora of upsets, last week was my strongest yet.  Let's see if I can keep it up...

1. Penn State at Purdue

You'll have to excuse me for this, but it's going to become routine that I'll lead off my selections with Penn State each week.  I know more about them than any other team, and as long as they're on fire like this, I'll get my boasting out of the way and spare you from it the rest of the way.  With that said, the Nittany Lions cleared hurdle #1 fairly cleanly last week, struggling a bit early then coming on strong late.  Their fourth quarter drive directly after Illinois cut their lead to 7 was VERY impressive.  Darryl Clark showed poise and maturity in marching his team down the field for what would prove to be the stake-in-the-heart touchdown.  That drive showed me alot about this team, and about Clark in particular.  He's tough, and he's a good leader.  This week will be his toughest challenge yet as a starting QB, in his first Big Ten road game.  Purdue's 2 home games have both been heartstoppers, but I don't see them hanging with Penn State for 4 quarters.  Expect another game where Penn State has some struggles early, then win fairly comfortably with a second half surge.  Darryl Clark makes another step in his maturity here.  As a sidenote, although their schedule is very difficult, the order of PSU's games works out very well for them, as each step will serve as a building block for Clark.  He won't have to make a drastic leap in competition level or environment from one week to the next.  If "at Wisconsin" was their first Big Ten game, it would be a different story.  Just some food for thought as Penn State runs their gauntlet.  

Penn State 31, Purdue 16

2. Ohio State at Wisconsin

Ohio State will be a vastly different team by the end of the season than they are now.  Terrelle Pryor is a freak of an athlete and I don't expect his maturation process to be a long one.  But there will be some bumps along the road.  This is likely to be one of them.  Everyone's aware of Ohio State's offensive struggles this year, but a bigger question is: what happened to their defense?  This was an impenetrable unit last year (except against LSU), and this year they seem, well, ordinary.  They're particularly susceptible to the run, which is Wisconsin's strong suit.  I think their mammoth offensive line will carve some nice holes for P.J. Hill, which will in turn open up the passing game.  Wisconsin's got to turn those drives into TD's though - settling for field goals is what gave Michigan a chance to make their comeback last week.

Wisconsin 26, Ohio State 20

3. Illinois at Michigan

Staying in the Big Ten for this one, an important game for Illinois if they hope to stay in the conference title race.  Michigan, as expected, is very inconsistent - awful in the first half and on fire in the second against Wisconsin.  The Wolverines have talent, but their season is shaping up to be one of those where they alternate wins and losses and end up about 7-5.  I just don't think they have a complete game in them.  I think the Illini defense will handle Michigan pretty well - they face a better version of roughly the same offense in practice every day.

Illinois 27, Michigan 13

4. Pittsburgh at South Florida

Pitt has a good team somewhere under the facade of mediocrity they've built, and I'm still not sold on South Florida yet.  Don't be surprised to see an upset in this one.  Thursday night games can be an equalizer too, because of the lack of consistency in preparation.  But until the Panthers step out of their concrete shoes, I'm not ready to pick them in a game like this.

South Florida 27, Pittsburgh 23

5. Connecticut at North Carolina

I think both of these teams will end up ranked somewhere between 15-25 at season's end, which makes this an underrated matchup.  Connecticut is better coached, but North Carolina is more talented, and I still think they'll win the ACC.  And they're at home in this one.

North Carolina 23, Connecticut 20

6. Florida State at Miami (FL)

Years ago this was THE game in college football.  My, how times have changed.  A few years from now it could again be the marquee game of the season, but right now both these teams are in reloading mode.  Miami is a little ahead of Florida State in the process.

Miami (FL) 16, Florida State 10

7. Missouri at Nebraska

Missouri rolls on, I just don't see Nebraska hanging with them.

Missouri 49, Nebraska 24

8. Texas at Colorado

Colorado has a very underrated home field advantage at Folsom Field, beating West Virginia a few weeks ago, and taking out Oklahoma in a thriller last year.  That makes this an even more dangerous game for Texas, who could be glancing over the fence to their showdown at the State Fair with Oklahoma the following Saturday.  The Longhorns haven't played anyone of note yet, even though they've been ringing up strong result after strong result.  They're still green in some areas and I think the Buffs will try to run the ball, control the clock, and win by beating Texas into submission.  It says here they'll succeed.  The upset train roars on.

Colorado 31, Texas 27

9. Texas Tech at Kansas State

Texas Tech has been lurking around the top 15 all year, and this is their first real test of the season.  Kansas State has a good offense with a future NFL quarterback at the helm, and I think they'll push Texas Tech.  We'll learn a lot about the Red Raiders in this one.

Texas Tech 38, Kansas State 35

10. Kentucky at Alabama

Alabama is due for a letdown.  They've looked awfully good, but you have to imagine their youth will catch up with them at some point.  This week they'll hear all about how good they are, how they're suddenly among the BCS title favorites, how they've completely shut down all comers.  But let me remind you of upset reason #2: youth.  Will it get to their heads this week?  Maybe.  Even if it doesn't, they face a solid Kentucky team with a good defense.  Alabama's inability to score an offensive touchdown at home against Tulane in their second game is stuck in my head, and I have a feeling Kentucky will give Alabama's offense fits.  Should we be shocked if the Tide fall?  Probably not, but that's what you'll hear the analysts saying.

Kentucky 21, Alabama 16

11. Auburn at Vanderbilt

If you had a horrible accident the night before the 2008 college football season began and lay in a coma until today, and then picked up the paper to check the rankings, finding the following line: "19. Vanderbilt", you'd think you were still in a coma, right?  Yet here we stand, with the Commodores in the top 20.  The rankings often will look funny in late September/early October, when upsets have shaken things up and a number of unexpected teams are still undefeated.  Eventually they sort themselves out.  I think Vanderbilt will move up even higher, because I think they'll beat Auburn.  Auburn hasn't been impressive by any stretch, and they'll struggle to score points again in this one.  Vandy has confidence and their crowd, though small, will make things difficult for the Tigers.

Vanderbilt 17, Auburn 14

12. South Carolina at Mississippi

Ole Miss comes home as conquering heroes, but the week after a tough SEC road game is never easy.  South Carolina won't be the test some SEC teams would be, but this will likely be close.  I'll go with the momentum of Ole Miss over the molasses of South Carolina.

Mississippi 24, South Carolina 23

13. Oregon at USC

Oregon bounced back from their loss to Boise State by obliterating Washington State, which is a good panacea for anybody.  I think USC will bounce back from their upset loss to Oregon State by taking it out on the Ducks, the other team from the Beaver State.

USC 48, Oregon 20

14. Arizona State at California

Arizona State needed a week off after 2 bad weeks in a row.  They'll be looking to redeem themselves against a good, but schizophrenic Cal team.  This should be a good one, and I think Rudy Carpenter will lead his team to a win.

Arizona State 30, California 24

15. Oregon State at Utah

Oregon State clearly is not the same team at home as it is on the road.  Since this is in Salt Lake City, Utah gets the nod here.

Utah 26, Oregon State 14

Week 5: Consistency

I've been doing the prediction thing for 4 weeks now and have proven to be the Clemson of football prognostication: lots of preseason fanfare followed by consistent mediocrity.  I've had nearly the same record each week, with a slight dip last time (8 correct instead of the usual 9).  It's time to pick up my game!

I think one reason I've been so consistently mediocre is because so many teams have been consistently inconsistent.  Take Louisville for example: the Cardinals dropped a big deuce on the scoreboard against Kentucky (innuendo intended), enticing me to pick them to fall flat again against Kansas State last week.  But they were a different team Wednesday night, playing solid defense and scoring rather easily.  And they're not the only ones: Maryland (loss to Middle Tennessee, beat Cal), UCLA (beat Tennessee, awful losses to BYU and Arizona), even highly ranked BYU (handed a win at Washington, 2 straight lopsided shutouts afterward) have all been maddeningly inconsistent.  In the early season this inconsistency rears its head because of youth on the roster, unfamiliar nonconference foes, and teams still working out kinks in their systems.  Expect things to even out a bit over the next few weeks as conference play starts up and coaches figure out just how to work best with what they've got.  Hopefully that also will mean better results from we prognosticators.

1. Illinois at Penn State

Last week I touted PSU as the most underrated team in the country, and now it's put up or shut up time.  The Lions enter this hellacious five-game stretch: Illinois, at Purdue, at Wisconsin, Michigan, at Ohio State. Yikes.  We'll know soon just how good Penn State is.  The first test is against an Illini team that gave up 52 to Missouri and hung on to win by 3 against Louisiana-Lafayette.  At first glance this might look like another PSU rout, especially with kickoff coming at 8pm in what will be the rowdiest stadium in the country.  But I think this will be a struggle for the Lions.  They had some major kick coverage issues last week against Temple, and Arrelious Benn took one back on them last year.  Penn State has had trouble defending spread offenses, losing to Juice Williams and the Illini last season and struggling to beat Indiana last year and Northwestern in years past.  They'll give up a few big plays and have trouble getting off the field on third down.  And Penn State has been a bit sloppy in their last 2 games in protecting the ball.  Last week 3 different players fumbled, and QB Darryl Clark has coughed one up in each of the past 2 games.  Still, this game is in Happy Valley, it is at night, and it will be a sea of white.  That alone is worth 7-10 points.  And in spite of the potential pitfalls, the Nittany Lions have too much firepower for the Illinois defense to handle, and State's D will bend a bit, but not break against the Illini spread.  Penn State 38, Illinois 24

2. Alabama at Georgia

Georgia survived 2 road tests, and they're rewarded with a visit from a surprise top-10 team.  The Bulldogs are balanced and deep, and will likely prove too much for Alabama's youth.  Nick Saban has his boys playing well, but their inexperience will show in the most difficult environment they've faced yet.  This is just chapter 2 in what will be a long saga of SEC barnburners.  Georgia 26, Alabama 13

3. Tennessee at Auburn

Both these teams come off tough SEC losses, and we learned last year that the second leg of a difficult back-to-back conference stretch was too much for some teams to handle.  Auburn is in greater danger of a letdown because of how heartbreaking their loss to LSU was, and their game was more physical and emotional than the Vols game against Florida.  Getting blown out probably saved them some energy for this one.  If only they had the talent to go along with that energy.  I expect a close game, but Auburn's defense will prove too tough for a plodding Tennessee offense.  Auburn 20, Tennessee 14

4. Colorado vs. Florida State

This is technically a "neutral-site" game in Jacksonville, but don't tell that to Colorado.  They still have to fly cross-country into Florida.  They'll face a different Florida State team than the one that just lost to Wake Forest, as the Seminoles return 5 defensive starters to an already strong defense.  And the Florida State offense should bounce back from their 7 turnover debacle against a Colorado defense that isn't as experienced or hungry.  FSU really wants to re-enter the national spotlight, and wins in games like this are ones to build on.  Florida State 21, Colorado 17

5. Virginia Tech at Nebraska

Nebraska is flying under the radar right now, but you know the Cornhuskers desperately want to be back in the national conversation again.  The program has been mired in mediocrity for years, and has to be tired of hearing about the six or seven other Big 12 teams getting national love.  They get a night game against a Virginia Tech team on a down year, and I think the Huskers will beat Virginia Tech and emerge in the top 25, and the mouths of college football reporters across the country, Sunday morning.  Nebraska 27, Virginia Tech 20

6. Wisconsin at Michigan

Wisconsin looks like a team that will contend for the Big Ten, and maybe even the BCS, title all season long, but this could be a stumbling block for the Badgers.  Michigan has a sneaky-good defense, and Wisconsin's attack showed that it can be slowed, scoring only 13 points against Fresno State.  The Badgers outclass the Wolverines in talent and execution this year, but this will not be an easy win.  Wisconsin 23, Michigan 20

7. Connecticut at Louisville

UConn is the major conference program that gets the least respect.  Last year they contended for the Big East title, returned 19 starters, started 4-0, and still can't crack the national rankings.  Randy Edsall is doing a marvelous job building a winning program in Storrs.  The rest of the country either thinks it's cute, or doesn't bother to notice.  But these Huskies could be your 2008 Big East champions, and not just because the conference is lousy.  The Huskies could be the next Wake Forest - a well-coached, disciplined, play-to-the-whistle football team playing at a university with little to no tradition.  They'll earn your respect them by going out, playing hard and winning each week.  Louisville is next in line.  Connecticut 31, Louisville 23

8. South Florida at N.C. State

I'm very afraid to pick South Florida in this one.  The results of their first 2 road games this season?  An overtime win against UCF (acceptable, I guess, it was against a team that was playing with a chip on its shoulder) and an ugly 17-9 result at Florida International, one of the worst programs in 1-A football.  N.C. State comes off an emotional overtime win against national darling East Carolina, but they lost their best player on offense and defense in the process.  I don't think they'll be able to spring another upset, but I really hate taking the Bulls.  South Florida 19, N.C. State 16

9. North Carolina at Miami (FL)

Tough loss for the Tar Heels to Virginia Tech last week - a win there could have been a springboard to an ACC championship game run.  Now they face the prospect of falling to 0-2 in conference with a tough road trip to a young, talented, and hungry Canes squad.  These 2 teams are actually mirror images of one another - young teams with talent and some swagger, and the pieces in place to win conference titles in the coming years.  In the next 2 years this could turn into a centerpiece game for the ACC.  Since I've been wavering back and forth so much with this one, I will literally settle it with a coin flip.  Heads to the Hurricanes, Tails to the Tar Heels.  Here goes.  Coin on the thumb... Flipping now... Heads it is!  Miami (FL) 28, North Carolina 24

10. Purdue at Notre Dame

Notre Dame was outplayed by a very good Michigan State team last week, and while Purdue could do the same thing to the Irish, I don't think they will - they're coming off 2 hard fought, down to the wire games and that expended energy will catch up to them.  Notre Dame 27, Purdue 17

11. USC at Oregon State

USC may not win quite as big here as they did in their first 2 games - Corvallis is a tough place to play and the Trojans have struggled there before.  They'll overwhelm the Beavers with sheer talent, but Oregon State will put up a good fight in front of a national TV audience.  USC 42, Oregon State 21

12. Minnesota at Ohio State

Shh!  Minnesota is 4-0!  They sneak into Columbus this week hoping to prey on a weakened and wounded Buckeye squad trying to regain its identity with a true freshman quarterback.  But can the Gophers beat the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe?  You bet they can - they're gaining confidence each week and are actually playing some good football.  Minnesota is catching Ohio State at the exact right time - still working all-world freshman Terelle Pryor into the starting role and mending star tailback Beanie Wells.  I actually might be talking myself into taking the upset here!  Wait, wait, what am I saying?  This is still Ohio State, and they did make some strides with Pryor last week.  Ohio State 34, Minnesota 21

13. Maryland at Clemson

I will take the upset here.  Maryland has the balanced offense needed to keep Clemson's offense off the field, and the Terps look to be a team that has their feet under them after knocking off Cal a few weeks ago.  Ralph Friedgen has said that this could wind up being one of his best teams.  Tommy Bowden will be feeling the heat by Saturday night.  Maryland 30, Clemson 27

14. TCU at Oklahoma

TCU beat Oklahoma in Norman a few years ago, and the Horned Frogs enter this contest with a freshly stamped 24 next to their team name.  I think they'll give the Sooners a good fight for about 2 1/2 quarters, then wilt under the Oklahoma muscle.  Oklahoma 38, TCU 27

15. Fresno State at UCLA

I hesitate even picking this game because it looks like such an easy win.  Fresno State is still smarting a bit from their loss to Wisconsin, and they'll look to take out some frustration on a worsening UCLA team.  And while we're on the subject - do you know that there are 6 non-BCS conference teams in the AP top 25?  Meanwhile, only 4 teams combined represent the ACC, Big East, and Pac 10.  Time to start calling 2008 "The Year of the Non-BCS"!  Fresno State 23, UCLA 10

16. Arkansas at Texas

Bonus pick!  Hurricane Ike postponed this game for 2 weeks, so I'll re-pick it here to make up the lost game.  I haven't seen anything to persuade me against picking my original thought of a Texas blowout, so I'll stick with that.  Texas 48, Arkansas 17

Week 4: SEC Takes Center Stage

After 3 weeks, we can take a step back and see what we've learned so far in 2008:

• Each week has seen a different major conference lay an egg: ACC in week one, Big East in week 2 (well, both 1 and 2), and the Pac Ten this past weekend.  There were some murmurs that the Pac Ten was near the level of the Big 12 and SEC, but that was before Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and California all put up stinkers on Saturday.

• Penn State is the most underrated team in the country.  Ranked 15 and 16 in the major polls, the Nittany Lions are posting numbers similar to highly-rated Missouri and Oklahoma, against a similar competition level (for example: PPG- PSU 55.3, Mizzou 57.7, OU 54.7; YPG- PSU 538.3, Mizzou 602.7, OU 558.7).  You might call me a homer for tabbing PSU as vastly underrated, but their resume warrants a top-10 ranking, not a struggle to gain traction around number 15.

• Auburn is the most overrated team in the country.  Don't get me wrong, I like the Tigers and I think they'll have a 10-win season, but their performance thus far hasn't justified the number 9 and 10 ranking in the polls they currently enjoy.  Their defense may be the best in the nation, but their offense is borderline inept right now, and no one can be impressed by a 3-2 win over a Mississippi State team that lost to Louisiana Tech in their opener.  The SEC is brutal, but that's ridiculous.

• Charlie Weis is apparently a sadist.  I'm not trying to be mean by saying that, but did you see him talking about his knee injury at his postgame press conference?  He was downright giddy, almost celebrating the fact that he suffered a cataclysmic knee injury, just because he felt like an athlete.  Creepy.

• USC and the Big Ten winner have great chances to play for the national title.  Let me explain this logic. Eight out of the current top 10 teams are in the SEC or Big 12, which are clearly the 2 best conferences in the country.  The schedule facing these schools in conference play is absolutely daunting, and any one of them running the table seems unlikely.  So an undefeated team from the other major conferences could slip past into the championship game.  Enter USC, who already won their toughest game this year.  As for the other slot, the ACC has no one capable and South Florida in the Big East looks too sketchy, leaving the door open for the Big Ten, and specifically Penn State or Wisconsin.  Circle their October 11 clash on the calendar, the winner just might be playing in Miami on January 8.

This week all eyes turn south, to a pair of big SEC games, and Georgia's nonconference showdown with a suddenly very embarrassed Arizona State.  If the first 3 SEC conference games are any indication (Vandy 24, S. Carolina 17; Georgia 14, S. Carolina 7; and Auburn 3, Miss. St. 2), these games will go the distance - there are no easy games in the SEC this year.

1. LSU at Auburn

Check out the scores from the last 4 games between these 2 teams, all won by the home team: (2004: Auburn 10-9, 2005: LSU 20-17, 2006: Auburn 7-3, 2007: LSU 30-24).  All one possession games, all very competitive, all decisive in the final SEC West standings.  Last year even featured the crazy finish of Les Miles having his QB toss up a deep pass with no time on the clock to win the game, when a field goal would have been much less stressful and just as effective.  Expect the same type of game this year.  As noted above, Auburn's offense is about as polished as a junked 1946 Packard, but that may not mean much as this game will be about defense.  As much as that offense scares me, I can't go against the 9-year tradition of the home team winning.  And maybe this is the game when the Mad Hatter's curious endgame coaching decisions finally bite him.  Auburn 13, LSU 10

2. Florida at Tennessee

The Vols loss to UCLA in their first game really looks bad now, after the Bruins were blanked 59-0 to BYU on Saturday.  Don't expect to hear too much "Rocky Top" as Florida will take the crowd out of the game early.  The Gators have too much on both sides of the ball for Tennessee to handle.  Florida 42, Tennessee 17

3. Georgia at Arizona State

UNLV?  UNLV?  It's one thing to look past a clearly overmatched foe in anticipation of the big boy coming to town next week, but entirely another to let them hang around and steal a win.  If you want to be an upper-echelon program, you don't let that happen.  UNLV was 2-10 last year, one of the worst teams in Division 1-A.  Arizona State will enter this game deflated and/or agitated, a combination that will likely lead to stupid penalties and costly turnovers.  That's not what you want to do against Georgia.  SEC power gets put on display in Tempe.  Georgia 37, Arizona State 24

4. Notre Dame at Michigan State

Notre Dame has fared well recently in East Lansing, but I'm going to go with the Spartans in this one.  The Irish are still a young team, and Michigan State is much more well-coached this year than the last time Notre Dame came to town.  Their margin of victory over Michigan was also more a product of Wolverine turnovers than Irish strength.  Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 24

5. West Virginia at Colorado

Interesting Thursday night matchup here.  Which West Virginia team will show up?  The one that scored 3 points against East Carolina, or the one which features Heisman candidate Pat White and electric running back Noel Devine?  While the cross-country mid-week trek won't be easy, Colorado isn't exactly a world-beater, having had to escape with a win over 1-AA Eastern Washington last time out.  I think the Buffaloes keep it close, but West Virginia rights the ship with a solid win.  West Virginia 31, Colorado 27

6. Miami (FL) at Texas A&M

If Texas A&M couldn't beat Arkansas State at home, they're not beating the Hurricanes.  Miami (FL) 26, Texas A&M 14

7. Virginia Tech at North Carolina

Virginia Tech has had some struggles with the Tar Heels in recent years, and this is the best North Carolina team they've faced in awhile.  The Tar Heels got a huge win at Rutgers last Thursday, and they have a few extra days to rest up before facing the Hokies.  Virginia Tech's offense has been lackluster, and there's no reason to think they're on the verge of a breakout.  North Carolina gets an important potential division-tiebreaker win.  North Carolina 23, Virginia Tech 20

8. Wake Forest at Florida State

Florida State has beaten two 1-AA opponents in their first 2 games, so it's hard to tell what they have at this point.  They'll face a steady, unspectacular Wake Forest team who won't make mistakes and give the Seminoles the game.  Florida State will be juiced to play this one - the last time the Demon Deacons came to town they pasted Florida State 30-0.  Look for the Seminoles to exact some revenge and insert themselves into the ACC Atlantic race.  Florida State 20, Wake Forest 15

9. Iowa at Pittsburgh

A boring Iowa team visits an underachieving Pitt team.  Not many storylines here.  The Big East needs a few more wins against other BCS conferences, and I think Pitt will get them one here.  Despite the early loss to Bowling Green, the Panthers will be a player in a weak Big East.  Pittsburgh 28, Iowa 21

10. Boise State at Oregon

Oregon returns home to friendly Autzen Stadium after a very good win at Purdue.  They showed resilience in coming back from a 2 touchdown deficit, and their freshman QB showed that he's ready to play.  He'll need to be with starter Roper out for a few weeks.  Boise State will challenge the Ducks, but Oregon's home field advantage is too much.  Oregon 41, Boise State 31

11. Arizona at UCLA

Yikes.  Both these teams come off road losses to Mountain West teams.  The Bruins comeback over Tennessee really looks miraculous now, and there aren't enough smoke and mirrors to mask their offensive deficiencies.  Arizona 23, UCLA 14

12. Alabama at Arkansas

This is the forgotten SEC conference matchup of the week.  Arkansas isn't very good, but they'll still prove to be a stiff test for Alabama - any SEC road win is a good win.  Alabama 27, Arkansas 17

13. Mississippi State at Georgia Tech

If you like boring football, make the trip to Atlanta this weekend.  Mississippi State brings their point-a-half offense to town to face Georgia Tech's triple option attack.  Look for lots of running plays and incomplete passes.  The Yellow Jackets have been pretty solid this year, and the Bulldogs shouldn't prove too difficult a test.  Georgia Tech 16, Mississippi State 6

14. East Carolina at N.C. State

East Carolina breathes a sigh of relief after escaping New Orleans last week with a win.  They go back to a more comfortable place - beating up on BCS conference schools.  ECU will play too many close games this year to run the table - their offense isn't explosive enough for them to have too many blowouts - but this won't be the week their BCS hopes buy the farm.  East Carolina 25, N.C. State 23

15. Kansas State at Louisville

A rare Wednesday game between BCS conference schools.  I can't justify taking Louisville after their dismal performance at home against Kentucky to start the season.  Kansas State has more firepower than Kentucky, in spite of a weaker defense.  Kansas State 42, Louisville 31

Week 3: Should East Carolina Be Ranked #1?

The East Carolina Pirates are the hot topic in college football right now, and rightfully so - they shellacked West Virginia in the wake of their thrilling win over Virginia Tech.  Now, I'm not going to sit here and tell you that the Pirates are the best team in the nation, but if you were to forget the preseason rankings and begin ordering the teams from 1 to 25 after week 2, East Carolina would have to be in the argument for number 1.  Here's why: East Carolina has the best set of wins in the country right now, beating two traditional powers, both ranked, one at a neutral site.  Against West Virginia they dominated, winning by 3 touchdowns and holding what was considered a powerful, high-octane offense to 3 points.  No other team can claim two scalps of that size at this point in the season.  If you're ranking teams by who they've played and how they've done, ECU sits at the top of the heap.  But the rankings aren't judged that way - they're subjective opinions by coaches and writers.  So intimidation and flash count.  The Purple Pirates don't have much of that, but they do have quality.  That alone doesn't mean they should be number one, but it does merit them consideration.

This week is full of enticing and intriguing matchups - by far the best weekend of the season so far, at least on paper.  Saturday should be quite a day.  Here's my take:

1. Ohio State at USC

I'm going to give Ohio State a pass after their dismal performance last week - that game was the classic case of looking past your overmatched opponent.  USC will be the choice of an overwhelming amount of prognosticators, who will take one look at the circumstances of the Buckeyes game and write them off.  But this is still the same team that played in the national championship game last year, and they're just as talented as USC.  The Trojans did look unstoppable in their opener with Virginia, but that's Virginia.  Ohio State and USC really are quite evenly matched.  Both have powerful, intimidating defenses.  Both have loads of talent at the skill positions.  Both have proven veteran coaches.  Even across the board so far.  I see 2 x-factors that will swing the game one way or the other.  One is the status of Beanie Wells.  If he's healthy, their offense is a different animal; without him they easily could be come one-dimensional and easy to defend.  He'll play, it's just a matter of at what level.  The second is experience.  Ohio State has a boatload of it after 2 years of big games and BCS frustration.  USC is very young, and Mark Sanchez is unproven on this stage.  They've got more talent than any other team in college football, but you can't underestimate the value of experience and leadership.  I think Beanie Wells plays well enough to keep USC's defense off-balance and the Trojans' inexperience will hurt them in the form of big turnovers or ill-timed penalties.  Ohio State 23, USC 17

2. Michigan at Notre Dame

Remember one year ago, when both the Irish and the Wolverines each limped into this game at 0-2? Savor that glorious thought.  And savor this one too: their records may not indicate it this time, but these 2 teams may be just as bad this year.  Michigan ended up beating Florida on New Year's Day, so their team really was pretty good, while Notre Dame was one of the worst teams in all of college football.  Michigan is definitely, perhaps substantially, worse this year.  And after nearly honking their game against woeful San Diego State last Saturday, Notre Dame is still far from the much-improved team many were touting them to be.  Expect an ugly game on Saturday, with Michigan's defense controlling the game.  That's one thing the Wolverines do have in great supply.  Michigan 16, Notre Dame 7

3. Oklahoma at Washington

Pac Ten officials should get plenty of pub surrounding this game.  Two years ago Oklahoma played in a Pac Ten stadium (Oregon) and were jobbed by two horrendous calls in the fourth quarter, costing them the game.  They return to the Pacific Northwest for the first time since that incident, visiting a team that was on the receiving end of another egregious officiating decision, last week against BYU (although the case can be made that the excessive celebration call didn't really affect the outcome - did you see the blocked PAT?  BYU didn't just block it, they smothered it.  Who's to say they wouldn't have done the same if it were from the normal distance?).  The Huskies, and especially Jake Locker, showed some serious moxie in that game, but the Sooners are a much more difficult challenge.  Oklahoma 35, Washington 21

4. Kansas at South Florida

Two of last years Cinderellas square off on Friday night.  I'm taking Kansas on the road, and here's why: South Florida is way too mistake-prone.  I've seen them make multiple dumb mistakes in several games, both last year and last week, and give up the ball too many times.  They're an emerging power, but they've got to sew up that problem before they take the next step.  Kansas will make them pay.  Kansas 30, South Florida 24

5. Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

The Hokies don't look so bad anymore, do they?  Georgia Tech will be a popular upset pick, but Virginia Tech has the speed on defense to handle Paul Johnson's triple option attack.  Being in Blacksburg will help too.  Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 10

6. Wisconsin at Fresno State

This is an intriguing game, with Fresno State looking to nab a big victory to add to their win at Rutgers, giving them a springboard to a BCS run.  The trouble is, Wisconsin appeared to wake up last week after falling behind 14-0 to Marshall.  They proceeded to ring up 51 in three quarters.  I'm not sure Fresno State will have an answer for their power running attack.  This should be a close, entertaining game, and the crowd in Fresno will be in a frenzy, but it won't be enough to push them past the Badgers.  Wisconsin 27, Fresno State 24

7. UCLA at BYU

UCLA floats into this one on the momentum of their upset of Tennessee last Monday, and BYU comes home on the high of escaping a serious upset threat.  If this were in LA, I'd give the Bruins more of a chance, but I'm not sure Kevin Craft has enough magic left in that arm of his.  His four first half picks are too hard to overlook too.  BYU 31, UCLA 17

8. Auburn at Mississippi State

Auburn's defense has been stalwart so far, and they run into an offense that is best described as "present".  A shutout is a good possibility, but don't expect the Tigers to do a lot of scoring either.  Auburn 16, Mississippi State 0

9. Georgia at South Carolina

Before the season I would have circled this as a dangerous game for the Bulldogs.  But the head ballcoach has got some issues to deal with under center and the Gamecocks don't appear yet to be able to compete with the upper echelon of the SEC.  Yet.  They'll get there someday, maybe not this year, but Spurrier will bring a division title to Columbia before his time there is through.  Georgia has too much for them this week though.  Georgia 26, South Carolina 7

10. California at Maryland

Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee last week.  Ouch.  So much for them being an ACC sleeper, as I had thought.  This week they get a Cal team that is on fire, obliterating Wazzu 66-3 last week on the Palousse.  Even with the cross-country trip and the noon start they should plow through the Terps as well.  California 38, Maryland 14

11. Oregon at Purdue

Oregon is flying under the radar right now, but this is a very good football team.  They've been stockpiling talent in Eugene for several years now, and it's starting to pay off with a yearly spot among the top 15.  A visit to Purdue will test them, but the Boilermakers don't have the horses to keep up.  Oregon 41, Purdue 24

12. Arkansas at Texas

This one really gets the blood boiling for Razorback fans.  Too bad they can't suit up, their team needs all the help it can get after 2 squeakers against awful competition.  Because of the rivalry, Arkansas will play much better than in their first 2 games, but Texas will run away with this one in the second half.  Texas 44, Arkansas 13

13. Iowa State at Iowa

A rivalry game between mediocre teams.  People outside of Iowa won't pay any attention to this game, but it will likely be close and entertaining.  These two schools have played some good games over the years, and they always seem to be close.  I think Iowa State will surprise many by making a bowl out of a difficult Big 12, and this is one of those swing games that could dictate whether or not they accomplish that feat.  Iowa State 23, Iowa 21

14. North Carolina at Rutgers

The Tar Heels had to come back to beat McNeese State in their opener, which doesn't bode well for my prediction of them winning the ACC.  Or maybe it does - at least they won, something ACC teams are struggling to do this season.  The Big East hasn't looked much better, and Rutgers didn't show me anything in their opening loss to Fresno State.  I'll go with Carolina, because they do have the talent to win the ACC.  A win on the road against a solid program could go a long way in determining the Tar Heels' fate this year.  North Carolina 28, Rutgers 23

15. Stanford at TCU

I missed on Stanford last week.  I'll admit it.  I still think Jim Harbaugh's squad will pull a big upset somewhere along the line, they're improving fast and are very well-coached.  Harbaugh may be first on the candidate list during the next offseason.  But TCU has won both their games handily, and they could be the thorn in the side of both Utah and BYU's run at a BCS berth.  Or could they become a third BCS threat from the Mountain West?  They're tough at home, and I think they'll hand Stanford a tough loss.  TCU 21, Stanford 13

Week 2: The Calm Before The Storm

Some things we learned last week: Michigan's offense still needs lots of work (and a quarterback).  The ACC may be worse than the Mountain West or the WAC.  I did not get a very good read on Louisville's offense (my prediction: 48 points, their actual output: 2).  Perhaps hype is not good for teams like Pitt and Clemson.  USC is again loaded, and has already emerged as the frontrunner for the year.

This week's schedule is visibly devoid of bling.  Another casualty of the NCAA's 12th game - teams want the money grab that playing a lower-tier cupcake can bring.  Florida-Miami is the most glamorous matchup, and one could argue whether or not that game will actually be close.  So we have to settle for a week of snacking on appetizers, anticipating next week's main course of Ohio State at USC.  The games we do have on tap for the week are subtly interesting, a mix of middle of the road BCS conference teams sparring with one another, coupled with some solid non-BCS teams trying to size up against the heavyweights.  Some difficult games to pick.

1. Miami (FL) at Florida

There will be a time when Miami is an annual top 10 team - Randy Shannon is a good coach and has the program going in the right direction.  But this game appears to be a mismatch.  Florida is one of the most balanced teams in the country, with a defense that looks like it will match the superb offensive talent they've stockpiled.  Even if this game weren't in the Swamp it would be ugly.  Miami: come back in 2 years, you'll be ready to compete with teams like Florida then.  Florida 42, Miami 14

2. Oregon State at Penn State

This game is being talked about as a test for Penn State, but I don't see it that way.  Oregon State was outclassed by Stanford last week, a team that is improving but certainly aren't going to go out and compete for the Pac-10 title.  Penn State is one of the most underrated teams going into this season, ranked 22 in the preseason polls, yet with a roster loaded with experience, talent, speed, and depth.  All that appears to be lacking is stability and consistency at quarterback, and the Nittany Lions have the luxury of a soft non-conference schedule to give both Daryl Clark and Pat Devlin some good experience under center.  They'll need it once they hit the meat of their Big Ten schedule, a brutal 5 game slate from the last weekend in September through the month of October. PSU will get tested, just not yet.  Penn State 41, Oregon State 21

3. Mississippi at Wake Forest

Wake Forest looks to be the flag bearers for the ACC this year, which is by no means a knock on the Demon Deacons.  Jim Grobe's squad is a fundamentally sound, good football team, and he's quietly built a solid, consistent program.  But the best team in a major conference ought to cruise through a game like this, at home against a mid-to-lower level team from another major conference.  How much differently would you look at this game if it were, say, Oklahoma State at USC?  But this appears to be a very close matchup and a legitimate chance at an Ole Miss upset.  I've gone back and forth on this one for days.  It would be wise to go with the consistency of Jim Grobe's Demon Deacons, but I can't shake how terrible the rest of the ACC has looked.  And Ole Miss has just enough buzz as the "it" sleeper in the SEC that I'm willing to take a chance on them.  Mississippi 24, Wake Forest 23

4. Cincinnati at Oklahoma

Last year Oklahoma fell asleep at the wheel twice (Colorado and Texas Tech), and it cost them a shot at the national championship.  This looks like the same type of game: a good, not great, opponent with enough talent and a good enough defense to frustrate the Sooners and cause some turnovers.  Oklahoma tends to panic when that happens and dig deeper holes for themselves.  The only difference is that this game is in Norman, and that, along with the wisdom they ought to have gained from those losses last season, is why I'm picking the Sooners.  But they should be wary.  Oklahoma 45, Cincinnati 27

5. Central Michigan at Georgia

The number one team in the nation playing a MAC team at home should be one of those opportunities for the alumni to cut out at halftime and enjoy the early September weather.  But Central Michigan isn't a pushover.  QB Dan LeFevour is a poor man's Tim Tebow (well, maybe "poor man's" is understating him a bit, let's call him the middle-class, or "Costco" Tim Tebow), and he and the Chippewa offense could pose some problems for the Bulldogs.  I expect the Chippewas to keep things interesting through halftime, then be overwhelmed by the wave of talent Mark Richt will throw at them.  Georgia 48, Central Michigan 24

6. South Florida at Central Florida

Central Florida is the defending C-USA champion, but they were smoked 64-12 by the Bulls last year.  I think this game will be closer, but South Florida clearly has more talent.  Interestingly, this game could become a premier matchup in the next 5-10 years.  South Florida has emerged as an impending national power, and UCF is a sleeping giant, the largest university in talent-rich Florida.  South Florida 33, Central Florida 13

7. Georgia Tech at Boston College

Georgia Tech will pose matchup problems for anyone they play this year, simply because the offense they run is so different than any others their opponents will face.  Boston College has a good defense, but they'll be tested by the Yellow Jacket's option attack.  I think Georgia Tech will move the ball, but Boston College will also be able to score just enough points to get the win at home.  Boston College 24, Georgia Tech 20

8. West Virginia at East Carolina

Last week I commented that mob ties were possibly the culprit behind how East Carolina managed to open the season with home games against perennial powers Virginia Tech and West Virginia.  Then I flipped on the TV Saturday and learned that the game against the Hokies was an a neutral site in Charlotte.  My bad.  Still, they played like they were the home team, and certainly had neutral observers jumping on the bandwagon as the game wore on.  If they manage to back that upset up with another one against West Virginia, expect pulled hamstrings across the country as bandwagon jumpers make the leap.  Maybe then we'd all learn exactly which of the Carolinas houses East Carolina University, or whether "East Carolina" has recently earned its statehood.  Too bad West Virginia isn't Virginia Tech.  The Pirates will compete, but West Virginia has too many weapons.  West Virginia 38, East Carolina 23

9. Southern Mississippi at Auburn

All Auburn had to do was hit the snooze alarm last week to get past overmatched Louisiana-Monroe; the Tigers will actually need to get out of bed and come to play this week with perennial giant-killer Southern Miss coming to town.  The Golden Eagles have pulled upsets of this caliber in the past, but Auburn is too talented and well-coached to have the rug pulled out from under them in this one.  Auburn 27, Southern Miss 9

10. Stanford at Arizona State

This one may be closer than people think.  Jim Harbaugh is doing a great job bringing Stanford back to respectability, and the Cardinal have some momentum after a good win over Oregon State.  Remember that Stanford shocked USC on the road last year, and the Sun Devils are no USC.  I'm still not sold on Arizona State as a Pac-10 contender, several of their 10 wins last year came in close games and their defense is a bit suspect.  I might look like an idiot on Sunday, but I'm taking Stanford in another big upset.  (Don't worry, I'll still probably look like an idiot even if I nail this pick.)  Stanford 31, Arizona State 30

11. California at Washington State

Cal looked pretty solid in beating a talented Michigan State team Saturday night, and shouldn't have trouble with Wazzu.  My only hesitation comes with knowing that Cal balked in a few games last year that they should have won.  Still, I can't justify taking Washington State - even if Cal shows up in Pullman flat, they should beat the Cougars.  California 34, Washington State 14

12. South Carolina at Vanderbilt

After last week's games involving these teams (Vanderbilt's surprisingly easy win over Miami (Ohio) and South Carolina's ugly turnover-happy win over N.C. State), Vanderbilt will be a popular pick to win this one.  I'm not buying it.  South Carolina is more talented and should win, even in Nashville.  South Carolina 16, Vanderbilt 10

13. BYU at Washington

This is a dangerous game for BYU.  Washington has the ability to give them trouble, and they just might have next opponent UCLA in the back of their minds after watching the Bruins late night rally to beat Tennessee.  I even pegged Washington as my surprise team from the Pac-10 this year, thinking they'd upset BYU.  But when push comes to shove, I can't follow through.  Washington's thrashing at the hands of Oregon last week is still stuck in my head.  BYU 45, Washington 28

14. Connecticut at Temple

News flash!  Temple is above .500!  Sure, it's a 1-0 start, but this is Temple we're talking about.  And they did it rather impressively too, with a 35-7 win at Army.  Connecticut is definitely a more difficult opponent, but they barely beat the Owls last year, at home no less.  In Philadelphia this year, I think Temple prolongs their stay above .500 by knocking off UConn.  Kudos to Al Golden for what he's doing with the Owls - probably the toughest job in college football.  Temple 22, Connecticut 17

15. Minnesota at Bowling Green

One of the upset-springers of last week comes home to face another BCS-conference school.  Minnesota looks to be a lesser team than Pitt, and the Gophers struggled to get past Northern Illinois last week, a team picked to finish behind Bowling Green in the MAC this year.  Seems like an easy pick - go with Bowling Green, right?  As Lee Corso says weekly, not so fast my friend!  These two played overtime last year, and Bowling Green may experience a letdown after the adrenaline of knocking off a top-25 team.  Minnesota should improve as the season goes on and their young roster gains some experience.  Minnesota 38, Bowling Green 31